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How high were import tariffs when GATT participants began negotiations to reduce them in 1947? Establishing this starting point is key to determining how successful the GATT has been in bringing down trade barriers. If the average tariff level was about 40 percent, as commonly reported, the implied early tariff reductions were substantial, but this number has never been verified. This paper examines the evidence on tariff levels in the late 1940s and early 1950s and finds that the average tariff level going into the first Geneva Round of 1947 was about 22 percent. It also find that tariffs fell by relatively more in the late 1940s and early 1950s for a core group of GATT participants (the United States, United Kingdom, Canada and Australia) than they did for many other important countries, including the set of other (non-core) GATT participants.

Gatt --- Tariffs --- Trade Agreements --- Trade Liberalization

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How does geographic distance affect the impact of trade agreements on bilateral exports, and through what channels? This paper examines this questions in a gravity model context for different types of goods for 185 countries over the period 1965-2010. Three stylized facts emerge. First, although economic integration agreements have a positive impact on trade flows, geographic distance significantly decreases their effect. Second, this phenomenon is in large part explained by the impact of economic integration agreements on distance-sensitive goods, in particular intermediates. These results hold when controlling for trade agreement depth, measured by the type of agreement and content of provisions, and economic similarity among trading partners. Third, this paper finds either no significant effect or a positive interaction between distance and economic integration agreements for final goods, suggesting that trade agreements among countries located far from each other help consumption patterns shift toward the most efficient producers.

Economic Distance --- Geography --- Integration Agreements --- International Economics & Trade --- Trade Agreements

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Jim Yong Kim, President of the World Bank Group, addressed the topic of trade as an engine of growth. Advanced markets are experiencing low growth and in emerging markets, growth rates have fallen by almost 1 percentage point since 2013. This is not just about numbers, these economic developments are limiting opportunities for billions of people around the world, and making it harder to achieve the goal of ending extreme poverty by 2030. One of the drivers of this low growth pattern is the decrease in trade growth. Global trade has slowed from an average yearly growth of 7 percent before the financial crisis to less than 3 percent today. Projections for 2016 indicate an even further slowdown. All this comes at a time when we need more cooperation, greater economic integration and stronger partnerships than ever before for the world economy to continue to grow in a sustainable way. We must respond with a push for lower trade costs, support for multilateral trade negotiations, resist protectionism, and support trade policy reform and greater global trade integration.

International trade and trade rules --- Protectionism --- Trade agreements --- Trade policy --- World trade organization

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With the success of the World Trade Organization and its predecessor, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, in reducing conventional tariff barriers, much of the recent focus of regional and multilateral trade agreements has switched to non-tariff measures, both border and behind-the-border policies. This paper considers the recent empirical and theoretical literature on non-tariff measures in the world trading system. It provides a set of stylized facts based on available data on non-tariff measures and reviews the key methods used to estimate their trade impact. It considers the theoretical treatment of these measures in the trade literature with a focus on the rules and institutions that govern non-tariff measures in the world trading system. It discusses some of the major issues regarding international cooperation in these policy areas, in particular whether such cooperation should entail deep integration (involving precise legally binding obligations) or shallow integration (which allows countries greater discretion in the setting of non-tariff measures). Finally, this paper reviews some of the specific features the World Trade Organization uses in dealing with non-tariff measures such as national treatment rules and non-violation complaints, and considers policy options beyond the WTO such as harmonization and mutual recognition of standards.

Deep Integration --- Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging Markets --- Free Trade --- International Economics & Trade --- Law and Development --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Non-Tariff Measures --- Private Sector Development --- Trade Agreements --- Trade Effects --- Trade Law --- Trade Policy

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Moldova's recent Association Agreement with the European Union (EU), which includes a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA), represents an important opportunity, as well as challenges. This analytical document has been commissioned by the World Bank Group to provide insights into potential outcomes of the DCFTA and of other trade options that Moldova has, using a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (DCGE) model calibrated to its economy. This paper begins by describing the general trends in economic relations between Moldova and the EU over the past 10 years, with an emphasis on trade, as well as Foreign direct investment (FDI) and labor migration. This section includes some additional facts and details that complement the Trade Competitiveness Diagnostic. In the second section, the paper presents the main elements of the DCFTA and highlights the trade commitments and concessions that the EU and Moldova undertook. It also includes a short review of available literature on the ex-ante or ex post impact assessments of other Association Agreements between the EU and third countries that have been done using CGE models. The third section presents key features of the DCGE and discusses the data used for assembling the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). Then, the main features of the simulated trade scenarios are presented. Finally, this paper discusses the DCGE simulation results, including the effects of the various scenarios on welfare, trade, and economic activity level. Some distributional impacts are also brought into discussion. The final section concludes and makes several recommendations.

Agriculture --- Capital --- Consumers --- Customs Procedures --- Economies of Scale --- Economy --- Financial Sector --- Food & Beverage Industry --- Gdp --- Generalized System of Preferences --- Gross Domestic Product --- Incentives --- Industry --- Inequality --- Outsourcing --- Productivity --- Property Rights --- Purchasing Power --- Regional Integration --- Savings --- Tariffs --- Taxes --- Telecommunications --- Total Factor Productivity --- Trade --- Trade Agreements --- Trade and Integration --- Trade Barriers --- Trade Liberalization --- Trade Policy --- Trade Preferences --- Trade Sanctions --- Wages --- World Trade Organization