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Although several studies have examined why overall price levels are higher in richer countries, little is known about whether there is a similar relationship at the urban and city level across countries. This paper compares the price levels of cities in Sub-Saharan Africa with those of other regions by analyzing price information collected for the 2011 round of the International Comparison Program. Readjusting the calculated price levels from national to urban levels, the analysis indicates that African cities are relatively more expensive, despite having lower income levels. The price levels of goods and services consumed by households are up to 31percent higher in Sub-Saharan Africa than in other low- and middle-income countries, relative to their income levels. Food and non-alcoholic beverages are especially expensive, with price levels around 35 percent higher than in other countries. The paper also analyzes price information collected by the Economist Intelligence Unit's Worldwide Cost of Living Survey, and obtains a similar result, indicating higher prices of goods and services in African cities.
International Comparison Program --- Price Level --- Purchasing Power Parity --- Urbanization
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A long-standing conjecture in macroeconomics is that recent declines in exchange rate pass-through are in part due to improved monetary policy performance. In a large sample of emerging and advanced economies, we find evidence of a strong link between exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices and the monetary policy regime’s performance in delivering price stability. Using input-output tables, we decompose exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices into a component that reflects the adjustment of imported goods at the border, and another that captures the response of all other prices. We find that price stability and central bank credibility have reduced the second component.
Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Exchange rate pass-through --- Consumer prices --- Import prices --- Nominal effective exchange rate --- Prices --- Imports --- United States
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This paper presents an overview of Argentina’s economic developments in the past 10 years. Argentina’s impressive growth over the past decade has been accompanied by the accumulation of a number of major vulnerabilities. Policy inconsistencies were exposed in early 2014 when mounting balance-of-payments pressures culminated in a sharp devaluation of the peso. Subsequent to the devaluation, domestic imbalances were exacerbated by a deteriorating external environment. At the same time, the dispute with holdout creditors continued to impede Argentina’s access to international capital markets. The combination of weak external demand, fast eroding competitiveness, and compromised access to international capital markets fueled balance of payments pressures in 2014.
Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary economics --- Exchange restrictions --- Exchange rates --- Currencies --- Prices --- Money --- Argentina
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The paper develops robust measures of core inflation for Vietnam that can be used in policy making. These core inflation measures (CIMs) are based on an analytical evaluation of the inflation process in Vietnam, and use a filtering approach to narrow down potential measures that satisfy certain empirically desirable criteria. The paper finds that commonly used exclusion-based measures (EBMs) do not perform well against these empirical criteria; trimmed mean measures (TMMs) do better. Among TMMs, “one trim does not fit all periods”; periods of high and variable inflation require larger trims, and conversely. EVIEWS and MATLAB programs which accompany the paper allow quick, timely replication of CIMs as new data become available, making them valuable tools for the State Bank of Vietnam on an ongoing basis.
Banks and Banking --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Estimation --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Banking --- Consumer price indexes --- Price controls --- Central bank policy rate --- Prices --- Financial services --- Price indexes --- Government policy --- Interest rates --- Vietnam
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The demands on monetary and exchange rate regimes in CESEE have evolved, in line with the region’s development. In the 1990s, the immediate challenge was to rein in excessive inflation following transition, and to establish basic monetary order. These objectives have been achieved, owing largely to successful exchange rate–based stabilization. With this accomplished, the focus has shifted to cyclical monetary management, and to appropriately managing monetary conditions during CESEE’s growth and income convergence to the euro area. Flexible exchange rates—and the ensuing capacity of monetary conditions to adapt to the economies’ needs—are likely to remain advantages, especially to extent that CESEE’s GDP and income levels will resume convergence to the euro area. Once this process restarts, tighter monetary conditions will again be needed to limit goods and asset price inflation, and to contain growth imbalances.
Conventional peg --- Currencies --- Currency --- Deflation --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Exchange rate flexibility --- Foreign Exchange --- Foreign exchange --- Government and the Monetary System --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary economics --- Monetary Systems --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Money --- Payment Systems --- Price Level --- Prices --- Regimes --- Standards --- Albania
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Increased focus on income inequality and distributional issues has made incidence analysis a crucial input into policy decisions. This note presents the theoretical framework used to conduct incidence analysis of fuel price subsidy reform and presents a user-friendly tool for its application. This new tool requires limited inputs and has the advantage of using the commonly available software program Excel. The note presents an illustration based on the case of Brazil, using the 2005 household survey and input-output table. The results reinforce the typical finding that fuel subsidies benefit well-off households and that their removal would be progressive.
Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Consumption --- Deflation --- Economics --- Energy industries & utilities --- Energy subsidies --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Expenditure --- Expenditures, Public --- Fuel prices --- Income --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- National accounts --- Price Level --- Prices --- Public Finance --- Saving --- Wealth --- Brazil
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This paper estimates the exchange rate pass-through to consumer price inflation in Angola and Nigeria, with particular emphasis on the changes of the pass-through over time. Even though the two countries share smilar dependence on oil exports, this paper reveals different results. For Angola, the long-run exchange rate pass-through to prices is high, though it has weakened in recent years reflecting the de-dollarization of the economy. In Nigeria, there is no stable long-run relationship between the exchange rate and prices, and changes in the exchange rate do not have a significant pass-through effect on inflation. However, the passthrough effect on core inflation is significant.
Inflation (Finance) --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy --- International Policy Coordination and Transmission --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Import prices --- Exchange rate pass-through --- Consumer price indexes --- Exchange rates --- Prices --- Imports --- Price indexes --- Angola
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This paper estimates the exchange rate pass-through to consumer price inflation in Angola and Nigeria, with particular emphasis on the changes of the pass-through over time. Even though the two countries share smilar dependence on oil exports, this paper reveals different results. For Angola, the long-run exchange rate pass-through to prices is high, though it has weakened in recent years reflecting the de-dollarization of the economy. In Nigeria, there is no stable long-run relationship between the exchange rate and prices, and changes in the exchange rate do not have a significant pass-through effect on inflation. However, the passthrough effect on core inflation is significant.
Inflation (Finance) --- Angola --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy --- International Policy Coordination and Transmission --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Import prices --- Exchange rate pass-through --- Consumer price indexes --- Exchange rates --- Prices --- Imports --- Price indexes
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Este documento sobre la evolución y las políticas se ecnómicas se preparó en el contexto de una reunión informal para el Directorio Ejecutivo dedicada a la Argentina de acuerdo a los procedimientos aplicados a los países miembros con demoras excesivas en las consultas del Artículo IV. Conforme a estos procedimientos, el personal técnico del FMI prepara una evaluación de la economía y las políticas del país miembro basándose en información que se encuentra a disposición del público general y sin consultar al país miembro. Ese documento, que representa las opiniones del personal técnico del FMI, tiene por finalidad mantener informado al Directorio de la evolución de la situación en el país miembro. Dada la ausencia de un conjunto más completo de datos y de un diálogo más exhaustivo con las autoridades sobre las políticas, dicho documento no debe considerarse como un informe del personal técnico sobre el Artículo IV ni debe presentarse como una expresión de las opiniones del Directorio Ejecutivo. Del mismo modo, la reunión informal del Directorio Ejecutivo no constituye una consulta del Artículo IV con el país miembro. Este documento está basado en la información disponible al momento de su finalización, el 29 de abril de 2015.
Currencies --- Currency --- Deflation --- Exchange rates --- Exchange restrictions --- Foreign Exchange --- Foreign exchange --- Government and the Monetary System --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary economics --- Monetary Systems --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Money --- Payment Systems --- Price Level --- Prices --- Regimes --- Standards --- Argentina
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This paper analyzes food inflation trends in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) from 2000 to 2016 using two novel datasets of disaggregated CPI baskets. Average food inflation is higher, more volatile, and similarly persistent as non-food non-fuel (NF/NF) inflation, especially in low-income countries (LICs) in SSA. We find evidence that food inflation became less persistent from 2009 onwards, related to recent improvements in monetary policy frameworks. We also find that high food prices are driven mainly by non-tradable food in SSA and there is incomplete pass-through from world food and fuel prices and exchange rates to domestic food prices. Taken together, these finding suggest that central banks in low-income countries with high and persistent food inflation should continue to pay attention to headline inflation to anchor inflation expectations. Other policy levers include reducing tariffs and improving storage and transport infrastructure to reduce food pressures.
Food prices --- Inflation (Finance) --- Finance --- Natural rate of unemployment --- Food --- Agricultural prices --- Food industry and trade --- Prices --- E-books --- Food prices. --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Trade: Other --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Commodity Markets --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Inflation persistence --- Exchange rates --- Commodity price shocks --- China, People's Republic of
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