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In this paper, we consider incidences of arrears to the IMF, focusing on protracted arrears cases and attempt to identify determinants of their occurrence. We use narrative and formal methods. In addition, we analyze determinants of the duration of arrears. We find that previous arrears, reserves coverage, and institutional quality are among the main determinants of arrears. In addition, we identify a role for political developments, including civil unrest, which make arrears more likely to arise and to last longer. We conclude that improved macroeconomic conditions and turnaround of political fortunes would help to clear the currently remaining protracted arrears cases.

Financial crises --- Loans, Foreign. --- Forecasting --- Econometric models. --- Foreign loans --- International loans --- Loans, International --- Loans --- Conditionality (International relations) --- Foreign loan insurance --- Crashes, Financial --- Crises, Financial --- Financial crashes --- Financial panics --- Panics (Finance) --- Stock exchange crashes --- Stock market panics --- Crises --- Econometrics --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models --- Discrete Regressors --- Proportions --- International economics --- Monetary economics --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Arrears --- External debt --- Credit --- Commodity price indexes --- Logit models --- Money --- Prices --- Econometric analysis --- Debts, External --- Price indexes --- Econometric models --- United States

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This paper provides a review of the economic performance of Malawi under the program supported by an Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement. Malawi’s economy has been hit hard by weather-related shocks for a second consecutive year, further weakening growth and worsening food insecurity. Growth is estimated to have declined from 5.7 percent in 2014 to 3 percent in 2015 and is projected to drop further to 2.7 percent this year. Under the ECF program, the macroeconomic framework in the near term will be anchored on a policy mix incorporating a tight monetary stance and a level of domestic fiscal financing consistent with disinflation.

Monetary policy --- Loans, Foreign --- Economic assistance --- Economic aid --- Foreign aid program --- Foreign assistance --- Grants-in-aid, International --- International economic assistance --- International grants-in-aid --- Economic policy --- International economic relations --- Conditionality (International relations) --- Foreign loans --- International loans --- Loans, International --- Loans --- Foreign loan insurance --- Monetary management --- Currency boards --- Money supply --- Accounting --- Banks and Banking --- Budgeting --- Exports and Imports --- Public Finance --- Statistics --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- National Budget --- Budget Systems --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Banking --- Public finance accounting --- Budgeting & financial management --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Macroeconomics --- External debt --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Public debt --- Public and publicly-guaranteed external debt --- Arrears --- Debts, External --- Finance, Public --- Debts, Public --- Banks and banking --- Budget --- Malawi