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We propose a New Keynesian model with the shadow rate, which is the federal funds rate during normal times. At the zero lower bound, we establish empirically the negative shadow rate summarizes unconventional monetary policy with its resemblance to private interest rates, the Fed's balance sheet, and Taylor rule. Theoretically, we formalize our shadow rate New Keynesian model with QE and lending facilities. Our model generates the data-consistent result: a negative supply shock is always contractionary. It also salvages the New Keynesian model from the zero lower bound induced structural break.
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We propose a tractable and coherent framework that captures both conventional and unconventional monetary policies with the shadow fed funds rate. Empirically, we document the shadow rate's resemblance to an overall financial conditions index, various private interest rates, the Fed's balance sheet, and the Taylor rule. Theoretically, we demonstrate the impact of unconventional policies, such as QE and lending facilities, on the economy is identical to that of a negative shadow rate, making the latter a useful summary statistic for these policies. Our model generates the data-consistent result: a negative supply shock is always contractionary. It also salvages the New Keynesian model from the zero lower bound induced structural break.
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