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Using a newly developed dataset this paper examines the cyclicality of private capital inflows to low-income developing countries (LIDCs) over the period 1990-2012. The empirical analysis shows that capital inflows to LIDCs are procyclical, yet considerably less procyclical than flows to more advanced economies. The analysis also suggests that flows to LIDCs are more persistent than flows to emerging markets (EMs). There is also evidence that changes in risk aversion are a significant correlate of private capital inflows with the expected sign, but LIDCs seem to be less sensitive to changes in global risk aversion than EMs. A host of robustness checks to alternative estimation methods, samples, and control variables confirm the baseline results. In terms of policy implications, these findings suggest that private capital inflows are likely to become more procyclical as LIDCs move along the development path, which could in turn raise several associated policy challenges, not the least concerning the reform of traditional monetary policy frameworks.
Capital movements -- Developed countries. --- Capital movements -- Developing countries. --- Capital movements. --- International Monetary Fund. --- Exports and Imports --- Production and Operations Management --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- International economics --- Macroeconomics --- Capital flows --- Capital inflows --- Private capital flows --- Output gap --- Terms of trade --- Balance of payments --- Production --- International trade --- Capital movements --- Economic theory --- Economic policy --- nternational cooperation --- United States --- Nternational cooperation
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This paper assesses how regional trade agreements (RTAs) impact growth volatility on a worldwide sample of 170 countries with data spanning the period 1978-2012. Notwithstanding concerns that trade openness through RTAs can heighten exposure to shocks, in particular when it leads to increased product specialization, RTAs through enhanced policy credibility, improved policy coordination, and reduced risk of conflicts can ease growth volatility. Empirical estimations suggest the benefits outweigh the costs as RTAs are consistently associated with lower growth volatility, after controlling for trade openness and other determinants of growth volatility. Furthermore, regression results also suggest that countries that are more prone to shocks are more likely to join a RTA, in particular with countries with relatively less volatile growth, additionally enhancing the stabilization effect.
Trade blocs. --- Economic development. --- International trade. --- External trade --- Foreign commerce --- Foreign trade --- Global commerce --- Global trade --- Trade, International --- World trade --- Commerce --- International economic relations --- Non-traded goods --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- Economic policy --- Economics --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Development economics --- Resource curse --- Regional economic blocs --- Regional trading blocs --- Trading blocs --- International trade --- Exports and Imports --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Economic Integration --- Economic Growth of Open Economies --- Trade: General --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- International economics --- Regional trade --- Exports --- Imports --- Trade agreements --- Terms of trade --- Commercial treaties --- nternational cooperation --- Montenegro --- Nternational cooperation
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The rapid growth of Islamic banking has attracted much attention lately in the economic literature. At the same time, a mature body of the literature has shown that financial development is broadly conducive to economic growth, which raises the question as to whether a similar conclusion holds for Islamic banking. Against this backdrop, this paper investigates the relationship between Islamic banking development and economic growth in a sample of low and middle income countries, using data over the period 1990-2010. The results show that, notwithstanding its relatively small size compared to the economy and the overall size of the financial system, Islamic banking is positively associated with economic growth even after controlling for various determinants, including the level of financial depth. The results are robust across across different specifications, sample composition and time periods.
Banks and banking -- Developing countries -- Religious aspects -- Islam. --- Economic development -- Islamic countries. --- Financial institutions -- Islamic countries. --- International Monetary Fund. --- Finance --- Business & Economics --- Banking --- Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Industries: Financial Services --- Islamic Banking and Finance --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Economic Development: General --- Other Economic Systems: Public Economics --- Financial Economics --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Financial Institutions and Services: General --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- International economics --- Islamic banking --- Financial sector development --- Multilateral development institutions --- Commercial banks --- Financial services --- Financial markets --- Financial institutions --- Terms of trade --- International trade --- Government consumption --- National accounts --- Banks and banking --- Islamic countries --- Financial services industry --- Development banks --- Economic policy --- nternational cooperation --- Consumption --- Economics --- Egypt, Arab Republic of --- Nternational cooperation
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This paper studies growth patterns in Emerging Market Economies (EMs) from the perspective on clusters and taxonomies. First, it documents developments over the past five decades in EMs and uses a cluster analysis to better understand convergence and the investment-growth nexus. Second, it looks at the performance of EMs since 2000 and develops a taxonomy to classify countries according to their factor endowments as well as their real and financial external linkages. The taxonomy offers insights on growth dynamics pre and post the global financial crisis. Results highlight the high degree of heterogeneity in EMs and the need for more granular and targeted near and long-term policy advice.
Business cycles -- Developing countries. --- Economic development -- Developing countries. --- Income -- Developing countries. --- Industrial productivity -- Developing countries. --- Investments -- Developing countries. --- Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Investments: Commodities --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Economic Growth of Open Economies --- Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development --- Measurement of Economic Growth --- Aggregate Productivity --- Cross-Country Output Convergence --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Financial Crises --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Commodity Markets --- International economics --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Finance --- Investment & securities --- Total factor productivity --- Consumption --- Terms of trade --- Global financial crisis of 2008-2009 --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- National accounts --- International trade --- Commodities --- Financial crises --- Industrial productivity --- Economics --- Economic policy --- nternational cooperation --- Global Financial Crisis, 2008-2009 --- Financial services industry --- Commercial products --- China, People's Republic of --- Nternational cooperation
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