Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

How can water resource agencies make smart investments to ensure long-term water reliability when the future is fraught with deep climate and economic uncertainty? This study helped SEDAPAL, the water utility serving Lima, Peru, answer this question by drawing on state of the art methods for decision making under deep uncertainty. These methods provide techniques for evaluating the performance of a water system over a wide range of plausible futures and then developing strategies that are robust across these futures. Rather than weighting futures probabilistically to define an optimal strategy, these methodologies identify the vulnerabilities of a system and then evaluate the key trade-offs among different adaptive strategies. Through extensive iteration and collaboration with SEDAPAL, the study used these methods to define an investment strategy that is robust, ensuring water reliability across as wide a range of future conditions as possible while also being economically efficient. First, on completion, the study helped SEDAPAL realize that not all projects included in the Master Plan were necessary to achieve water reliability, and the utility could save 25 percent (more than USD 600 million) in investment costs. Second, the study helped focus future efforts on demand-side management, pricing, and soft infrastructure, a refocusing that is difficult to achieve in traditional utility companies. Third, the study helped SEDAPAL gain the support of regulatory and budget agencies through the careful analysis of alternatives. Fourth, the study allowed the utility to postpone lower priority investments, and to analyze future options based on climate and demand information that simply is not available now.

Governance and institutions --- Long-lived infrastructure investments --- Town water supply and sanitation --- Water & industry --- Water conservation --- Water resources --- Water supply & systems --- Water supply and sanitation

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Since we introduced the term "middle-income trap" in 2006, it has become popular among policy makers and researchers. In May 2015, a search of Google Scholar returned more than 3,000 articles including the term and about 300 articles with the term in the title. This paper provides a (non-exhaustive) survey of this literature. The paper then discusses what, in retrospect, we missed when we coined the term. Today, based on developments in East Asia, Latin America, and Central Europe during the past decade, we would have paid more attention to demographic factors, entrepreneurship, and external institutional anchors. We would also make it clearer that to us, the term was as much the absence of a satisfactory theory that could inform development policy in middle-income economies as the articulation of a development phenomenon. Three-quarters of the people in the world now live in middle-income economies, but economists have yet to provide a reliable theory of growth to help policy makers navigate the transition from middle- to high-income status. Hybrids of the Solow-Swan and Lucas-Romer models are not unhelpful, but they are poor substitutes for a well-constructed growth framework.

Advanced countries --- Advanced country --- Agriculture --- Balance sheet --- Banking --- Bankruptcy --- Barriers --- Benchmark --- Benchmarks --- Capital --- Capital account --- Capital accumulation --- Capital flow --- Capital investment --- Capital investments --- Capital markets --- Carbon emissions --- Central bank --- Climate change economics --- Closed economies --- Comparative advantage --- Competition --- Competitiveness --- Currency --- Currency risk --- Customers --- Decentralization --- Democracy --- Demographic --- Deregulation --- Developing countries --- Development --- Development economics --- Development policy --- Dividend --- Economic development --- Economic developments --- Economic geography --- Economic growth --- Economic outlook --- Economic performance --- Economic progress --- Economic rents --- Economic research --- Economic structures --- Economic theory & research --- Economics --- Economy --- Efficient capital --- Elasticity --- Emerging economies --- Emerging markets --- Entry point --- Environmental sustainability --- Equity --- Exchange --- Exchange rate --- Exchange rates --- Expectations --- Exports --- External finance --- Externalities --- Federal reserve --- Financial crisis --- Financial markets --- Financial sector --- Flexible exchange rates --- Foreign direct investment --- Foreign investors --- Foreign markets --- Free trade --- Future --- GDP --- GDP per capita --- Global economic prospects --- Globalization --- Goods --- Governance --- Growth models --- Growth potential --- Growth rate --- Growth rates --- Growth theories --- Growth theory --- Human capital --- Incentives --- Income --- Income levels --- Incomes --- Industrialization --- Inequality --- Infrastructure investments --- Institutional capacity --- Institutional infrastructure --- Intellectual property --- Interest --- International finance --- International trade --- Investment --- Investments --- Investors --- Knowledge economy --- Labor market --- Labor markets --- Labor policies --- Liberalization --- Liquidity --- Low-income countries --- Macroeconomic management --- Macroeconomic performance --- Macroeconomics and economic growth --- Market conditions --- Market prices --- Markets --- Mic traps --- Middle income countries --- Middle-income countries --- Middle-income country --- Middle-income economies --- Monetary policy --- Money market --- National income --- Natural resources --- Open economies --- Patents --- Per capita income --- Per capita incomes --- Political economy --- Political power --- Poverty reduction --- Price --- Prices --- Private sector development --- Productivity --- Productivity growth --- Property rights --- Protectionism --- Public policy --- Rapid growth --- Real estate --- Regional integration --- Rent --- Risk management --- Safety nets --- Share --- Social capital --- Social protections and labor --- Social safety nets --- Startups --- Structural change --- Sustainable development --- Taxes --- Technological change --- Theory --- Total factor productivity --- Total factor productivity growth --- Trade --- Trade diversion --- Trade liberalization --- Trade negotiations --- Trade policy --- Trends --- Unemployment --- Unemployment rates --- Urbanization --- Value --- Value added --- Variables --- Venture capital --- Volatility --- Wage growth --- Wages --- World development indicators --- WTO