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Power Play : Energy and Manufacturing in North America
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ISBN: 1513593366 1513517090 9781513517094 9781498364799 1498364799 151356580X Year: 2015 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

The recent boom in unconventional energy production is transforming the energy landscape in North America, with important implications for global energy markets and the broader competitiveness outlook. This book, within a unifying policy perspective, examines the impact the upsurge in energy production has had on the manufacturing sectors of the United States, Canada, and Mexico, and of the region as a whole, which produces nearly a quarter of the world’s energy.


Book
Forecasting the Nominal Brent Oil Price with VARs—One Model Fits All?
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ISBN: 1513518038 1513526685 1513523899 Year: 2015 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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We carry out an ex post assessment of popular models used to forecast oil prices and propose a host of alternative VAR models based on traditional global macroeconomic and oil market aggregates. While the exact specification of VAR models for nominal oil price prediction is still open to debate, the bias and underprediction in futures and random walk forecasts are larger across all horizons in relation to a large set of VAR specifications. The VAR forecasts generally have the smallest average forecast errors and the highest accuracy, with most specifications outperforming futures and random walk forecasts for horizons up to two years. This calls for caution in reliance on futures or the random walk for forecasting, particularly for near term predictions. Despite the overall strength of VAR models, we highlight some performance instability, with small alterations in specifications, subsamples or lag lengths providing widely different forecasts at times. Combining futures, random walk and VAR models for forecasting have merit for medium term horizons.


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Albania : Second and Third Reviews Under the Extended Arrangement and Request for Waiver for the Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, Waiver of Applicability of Performance Criteria, and Rephasing of Future Disbursements.
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ISBN: 148438105X Year: 2015 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper discusses Albania’s Second and Third Reviews Under the Extended Arrangement and Request for Waiver for the Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, Waiver of Applicability of PCs, and Rephasing of Future Disbursements. The program is on track. All end-June, end-September, and available end-December quantitative PCs were met. However, the continuous PC on the accumulation of external arrears was not observed because of technical delay with one interest payment. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for the completion of the second and third reviews under the Extended Arrangement, waiver of applicability of PCs, and rephasing of future disbursements.


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The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment : Evidence from Advanced Economies
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ISBN: 1484361776 1484361555 Year: 2015 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper provides new evidence of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in advanced economies. Using public investment forecast errors to identify the causal effect of government investment in a sample of 17 OECD economies since 1985 and model simulations, the paper finds that increased public investment raises output, both in the short term and in the long term, crowds in private investment, and reduces unemployment. Several factors shape the macroeconomic effects of public investment. When there is economic slack and monetary accommodation, demand effects are stronger, and the public-debt-to-GDP ratio may actually decline. Public investment is also more effective in boosting output in countries with higher public investment efficiency and when it is financed by issuing debt.


Book
The Potential Macroeconomic Impact of the Unconventional Oil and Gas Boom in the United States
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ISBN: 1475522029 1475551363 Year: 2015 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper uses two of the IMF's structural macroeconomic models to estimate the potential global impact of the boom in unconventional oil and natural gas in the United States. The results suggest that the impact on the level of U.S. real GDP over roughly the next decade could be significant, but modest, ranging between 1 and 1½ percent. Further, while the impact on the U.S. energy trade balance will be large, most results suggest that its impact on the overall U.S. current account will be negligible. The impact outside of the United States will be modestly positive on average, but most countries dependent on energy exports will be affected adversely.

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