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The recent boom in unconventional energy production is transforming the energy landscape in North America, with important implications for global energy markets and the broader competitiveness outlook. This book, within a unifying policy perspective, examines the impact the upsurge in energy production has had on the manufacturing sectors of the United States, Canada, and Mexico, and of the region as a whole, which produces nearly a quarter of the world’s energy.
Power resources --- Manufacturing industries --- Industries --- Business & Economics --- Manufactures --- Energy --- Energy resources --- Power supply --- Natural resources --- Energy harvesting --- Energy industries --- E-books --- United States --- Investments: Energy --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: Energy --- Industries: Manufacturing --- Hydrocarbon Resources --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Energy: General --- Petroleum, oil & gas industries --- Investment & securities --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Natural gas sector --- Manufacturing --- Energy sector --- Energy prices --- Oil --- Economic sectors --- Commodities --- Gas industry --- Petroleum industry and trade
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We carry out an ex post assessment of popular models used to forecast oil prices and propose a host of alternative VAR models based on traditional global macroeconomic and oil market aggregates. While the exact specification of VAR models for nominal oil price prediction is still open to debate, the bias and underprediction in futures and random walk forecasts are larger across all horizons in relation to a large set of VAR specifications. The VAR forecasts generally have the smallest average forecast errors and the highest accuracy, with most specifications outperforming futures and random walk forecasts for horizons up to two years. This calls for caution in reliance on futures or the random walk for forecasting, particularly for near term predictions. Despite the overall strength of VAR models, we highlight some performance instability, with small alterations in specifications, subsamples or lag lengths providing widely different forecasts at times. Combining futures, random walk and VAR models for forecasting have merit for medium term horizons.
Investments: Energy --- Econometrics --- Investments: Futures --- Macroeconomics --- Forecasting --- Forecasting and Other Model Applications --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- State Space Models --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Energy: General --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Finance --- Investment & securities --- Economic Forecasting --- Oil prices --- Vector autoregression --- Futures --- Oil --- Economic forecasting --- Econometric analysis --- Financial institutions --- Commodities --- Derivative securities --- Petroleum industry and trade --- United States
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This paper discusses Albania’s Second and Third Reviews Under the Extended Arrangement and Request for Waiver for the Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, Waiver of Applicability of PCs, and Rephasing of Future Disbursements. The program is on track. All end-June, end-September, and available end-December quantitative PCs were met. However, the continuous PC on the accumulation of external arrears was not observed because of technical delay with one interest payment. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for the completion of the second and third reviews under the Extended Arrangement, waiver of applicability of PCs, and rephasing of future disbursements.
Finance --- Business & Economics --- International Finance --- Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Public Finance --- Industries: Energy --- Industries: Financial Services --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Petroleum, oil & gas industries --- Banking --- Public debt --- Arrears --- Energy sector --- External debt --- Economic sectors --- Revenue administration --- Debts, External --- Debts, Public --- Energy industries --- Banks and banking --- Loans --- Revenue --- Albania
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This paper provides new evidence of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in advanced economies. Using public investment forecast errors to identify the causal effect of government investment in a sample of 17 OECD economies since 1985 and model simulations, the paper finds that increased public investment raises output, both in the short term and in the long term, crowds in private investment, and reduces unemployment. Several factors shape the macroeconomic effects of public investment. When there is economic slack and monetary accommodation, demand effects are stronger, and the public-debt-to-GDP ratio may actually decline. Public investment is also more effective in boosting output in countries with higher public investment efficiency and when it is financed by issuing debt.
Crowding out (Economics) -- Developed countries. --- Economic development -- Developing countries. --- Infrastructure (Economics) -- Developing countries. --- Public investments -- Developing countries. --- Business & Economics --- Economic History --- Investments: General --- Public Finance --- Production and Operations Management --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Expectations --- Speculations --- International Economic Order and Integration --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Energy: Government Policy --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Fiscal Policy --- Public finance & taxation --- Macroeconomics --- Public investment spending --- Public debt --- Private investment --- Expenditure --- Output gap --- National accounts --- Fiscal policy --- Public investments --- Debts, Public --- Saving and investment --- Expenditures, Public --- Production --- Economic theory --- United Kingdom
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This paper uses two of the IMF's structural macroeconomic models to estimate the potential global impact of the boom in unconventional oil and natural gas in the United States. The results suggest that the impact on the level of U.S. real GDP over roughly the next decade could be significant, but modest, ranging between 1 and 1½ percent. Further, while the impact on the U.S. energy trade balance will be large, most results suggest that its impact on the overall U.S. current account will be negligible. The impact outside of the United States will be modestly positive on average, but most countries dependent on energy exports will be affected adversely.
Economic development -- United States. --- Fiscal policy -- United States. --- Gas industry -- United States. --- Petroleum industry and trade -- United States. --- Mechanical Engineering --- Engineering & Applied Sciences --- Metallurgy & Mineralogy --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Industries: Energy --- Investments: Energy --- Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models --- Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Hydrocarbon Resources --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Energy: General --- Energy industries & utilities --- International economics --- Petroleum, oil & gas industries --- Investment & securities --- Energy pricing --- Energy prices --- Foreign assets --- Natural gas sector --- Current account --- External position --- Economic sectors --- Balance of payments --- Oil --- Commodities --- Expenditures, Public --- Investments, Foreign --- Gas industry --- Petroleum industry and trade --- United States
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