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Countries with de jure floating exchange rate regimes are often reluctant to allow their currencies to float freely in practice. One reason why countries may wish to limit exchange rate volatility is potential negative balance sheet effects due to currency mismatches on the balance sheets of firms and households. In this paper, we show in a sample of 15 emerging market economies that countries with large foreign exchange (FX) debt in the non-financial private sector tend to react more strongly to exchange rate changes using both FX interventions and monetary policy. Thus, our results support the idea that an important source of “fear of floating” is balance sheet currency mismatches. This effect is asymmetric; that is, countries stem depreciation but not appreciation pressure. Moreover, FX debt financed through the domestic banking system is more important for fear of floating than FX debt obtained directly from external sources.
Banks and Banking --- Foreign Exchange --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Development Planning and Policy: Trade Policy --- Factor Movement --- Foreign Exchange Policy --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Banking --- Exchange rate adjustments --- Exchange rates --- Central bank policy rate --- Exchange rate policy --- Financial services --- Interest rates --- Colombia
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The appreciation of the real exchange rate over the past several years is considered one of the key drivers behind the weak performance of Colombia’s manufacturing sector in recent years. This paper examines the effects of the real exchange rate, external and domestic demand, and structural changes on firms’ profitability in Colombia’s manufacturing sector between 2000 and 2012. While export intensive companies have suffered lower profit growth with real exchange rate appreciation,we find no strong evidence that real appreciation has, on average, negatively affected the profitability of manufacturing firms; on the contrary, we find that real appreciation may have increased firms’ profitability by reducing the cost of imported inputs as Colombian manufacturing firms become more domestically oriented. At the same time, some structural changes (related to trade disruption with Venezuela and increased trade competition from China) seem to partially explain the weakness of the manufacturing sector since 2008.
Foreign exchange rates -- Colombia. --- Manufacturing industries -- Colombia. --- Structural adjustment (Economic policy) -- Colombia. --- Industries --- Business & Economics --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Industries: Manufacturing --- Firm Performance: Size, Diversification, and Scope --- Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General --- Industrialization --- Manufacturing and Service Industries --- Choice of Technology --- Development Planning and Policy: Trade Policy --- Factor Movement --- Foreign Exchange Policy --- Trade: General --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Manufacturing industries --- International economics --- Real effective exchange rates --- Manufacturing --- Real exchange rates --- Imports --- Exports --- Economic sectors --- International trade --- Colombia
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This paper estimates the short-term and long-run price and income elasticity of Indian exports, and investigates the role of supply-side bottlenecks in shaping India’s export demand relationship. We use disaggregated export volume data for 45 Indian industries over the period 1990-2013, as well as industry-specific international relative prices, for estimation. Our results indicate that Indian exports are sensitive to international relative-price competitiveness, world demand, and energy shortages. In addition, binding supply-side constraints (notably energy shortages) dampen price responsiveness in the short-term.
Elasticity (Economics) -- India. --- Exports -- India. --- India -- Supply and demand. --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- 'Panel Data Models --- Spatio-temporal Models' --- Industrialization --- Manufacturing and Service Industries --- Choice of Technology --- Development Planning and Policy: Trade Policy --- Factor Movement --- Foreign Exchange Policy --- Trade: General --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- International economics --- Exports --- Export performance --- Price elasticity --- Personal income --- Export prices --- International trade --- Prices --- National accounts --- Income --- India
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Structural transformation depends not only on how much countries export but also on what they export and with whom they trade. This paper breaks new ground in analyzing India’s exports by the technological content, quality, sophistication, and complexity of the export basket. We identify five priority areas for policies: (1) reduction of trade costs, at and behind the border; (2) further liberalization of FDI including through simplification of regulations and procedures; (3) improving infrastructure including in urban areas to enhance manufacturing and services in cities; (4) preparing labor resources (skills) and markets (flexibility) for the technological progress that will shape jobs in the years ahead; and (5) creating an enabling environment for innovation and entrepreneurship to draw the economy into higher productivity activities.
Economic development -- India. --- Exports -- India. --- India -- Commerce. --- Manufacturing industries -- India. --- Commerce --- Business & Economics --- Local Commerce --- Exports --- Manufacturing industries --- India --- Commerce. --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: Manufacturing --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Industrialization --- Manufacturing and Service Industries --- Choice of Technology --- Development Planning and Policy: Trade Policy --- Factor Movement --- Foreign Exchange Policy --- Comparative Studies of Countries --- Trade: General --- Neoclassical Models of Trade --- Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- International economics --- Service exports --- Comparative advantage --- Manufacturing --- Personal income --- International trade --- Economic sectors --- National accounts --- Income
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The paper first describes how the Czech National Bank (CNB) moved gradually from a fixed exchange rate regime to the frontiers of Inflation-Forecast Targeting. It then focuses on the CNB’s recent experience in adding the exchange rate as a complementary monetary policy tool to stimulate the economy and combat the risks of deflation when the policy interest rate is at the zero lower bound. It assesses the theoretical basis of such a policy, the communications approach used by the CNB when announcing the new framework, and the effects thus far on inflation and output.
Economic development. --- International Monetary Fund. --- Finance --- Business & Economics --- Money --- Banks and Banking --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Monetary Policy --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Development Planning and Policy: Trade Policy --- Factor Movement --- Foreign Exchange Policy --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Banking --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary economics --- Exchange rates --- Central bank policy rate --- Inflation targeting --- Prices --- Financial services --- Monetary policy --- Exchange rate policy --- Interest rates --- Banks and banking --- Czech Republic
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Dollarization rates in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) region are among the highest in the world, with adverse consequences for macroeconomic stability, monetary policy transmission, and financial sector development. Using dynamic panel data models, we find that foreign exchange deposits and loans in the CCA are mainly driven by volatile inflation and exchange rates, low financial depth, and asymmetric exchange rate policies biased toward depreciation. Although there is no unique formula for success, empirical studies and cross-country experiences suggest that credible monetary and exchange rate frameworks, low and stable inflation, and deep domestic financial markets are essential ingredients of any de-dollarization strategy. In implementation, policymakers need to consider proper sequencing of policies, effective communication as well as risks from potential financial disintermediation and instability, and/or capital flight.
Financial institutions --- Dollarization --- Monetary policy --- Foreign exchange rates --- Financial intermediaries --- Lending institutions --- Associations, institutions, etc. --- Exchange rates --- Fixed exchange rates --- Flexible exchange rates --- Floating exchange rates --- Fluctuating exchange rates --- Foreign exchange --- Rates of exchange --- Monetary management --- Economic policy --- Currency boards --- Money supply --- Rates --- Foreign Exchange --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Financial Institutions and Services: General --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Development Planning and Policy: Trade Policy --- Factor Movement --- Foreign Exchange Policy --- Monetary economics --- Currency --- Currencies --- Exchange rate policy --- Money --- Russian Federation
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