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Year: 2015 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research
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Previous research on mortgage default has been constrained by data limitations, including lack of data on mortgagor employment status. This paper studies mortgage default using PSID data, which includes a richer set of covariates, including employment status, equity, and other assets. In sharp contrast to prior studies, we find that unemployment and other negative financial shocks are key default predictors. Using wealth data, we find a limited scope for strategic default, as only 1/3 of underwater defaulters have enough assets to pay their mortgage. We discuss the implications of these findings for theoretical default models and for loss mitigation policies
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Year: 2015 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research
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This paper exploits matched data from the PSID on borrower mortgages with income and demographic data to quantify the relative importance of negative equity, versus lack of ability to pay, as affecting default between 2009 and 2013. These data allow us to construct household budgets sets that provide better measures of ability to pay. We use instrumental variables to quantify the impact of ability to pay, including job loss and disability, versus negative equity. Changes in ability to pay have the largest estimated effects. Job loss has an equivalent effect on default likelihood as a 35 percent decline in equity.
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