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The U.S. labor force participation rate (LFPR) fell dramatically following the Great Recession and has yet to start recovering. A key question is how much of the post-2007 decline is reversible, something which is central to the policy debate. The key finding of this paper is that while around ¼–? of the post-2007 decline is reversible, the LFPR will continue to decline given population aging. This paper’s measure of the “employment gap” also suggests that labor market slack remains and will only decline gradually, pointing to a still important role for stimulative macro-economic policies to help reach full employment. In addition, given the continued downward pressure on the LFPR, labor supply measures will be an essential component of the strategy to boost potential growth. Finally, stimulative macroeconomic and labor supply policies should also help reduce the scope for further hysteresis effects to develop (e.g., loss of skills, discouragement).

Labor supply -- United States. --- Manpower policy -- United States. --- Population aging -- United States. --- United States -- Economic policy. --- Business & Economics --- Labor & Workers' Economics --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Demography --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Monetary Policy --- Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Demographic Economics: General --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Labor Economics: General --- Labour --- income economics --- Population & demography --- Population and demographics --- Aging --- Labor markets --- Population --- Population aging --- Labor market --- Labor economics --- United States