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Transactional sex is believed to be an important risk-coping mechanism for women in Sub-Saharan Africa and a leading contributor to the HIV/AIDS epidemic. This paper uses data from a panel of women in rural Tanzania whose primary occupation is agriculture. The analysis finds that following a negative shock (such as food insecurity), unmarried women are about three times more likely to have been paid for sex. Regardless of marital status, after a shock women have more unprotected sex and are 36 percent more likely to have a sexually transmitted infection. These empirical findings support the claims that transactional sex is not confined to commercial sex workers and that frequently experienced shocks, such as food insecurity, may lead women to engage in transactional sex as a risk-coping behavior.

Adolescent Health --- Economic Shocks --- Gender --- Gender & Health --- Gender & Law --- Health Monitoring & Evaluation --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- HIV/AIDS --- Population Policies --- Sexually Transmitted Infections

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This paper seeks to provide evidence on the extent of household vulnerability to exogenous economic shocks in the Pacific region and consider policy options that help to manage this risk. Characteristics of the region such as remoteness, small size, dispersion, and urbanizing populations lead to pronounced vulnerabilities. The paper presents macroeconomic and distributional analysis and complements it with results of a micro-simulation model customized for this work based on a model used previously by the World Bank to analyze the impacts of the Food and Fuel Price Crisis. The results of micro-simulations serve to highlight the very high levels of economic vulnerability faced in the region. Impacts of economic shocks are not confined to well-off individuals, but have major impacts on the poor. Even moderate shocks are likely to push sizeable fractions of the population below the poverty line. The shocks considered are not worst case scenarios, but those that can and have occurred frequently. The results show that households are hard hit by increases in oil prices, especially in remote islands where freight costs are higher, while countries on aggregate, and individual households, are exposed to volatility in the prices of the one or two imported food commodities that they depend on. Livelihoods are also often driven by external demand. In particular, many poor households in countries like Papua New Guinea have livelihood strategies centered on cash crops. The results point to the importance of helping households of the Pacific to manage the risk inherent in their lives while prudently using macroeconomic tools at the disposal of the government.

Economic Shocks --- Emerging Markets --- Food & Beverage Industry --- Industry --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Markets & Market Access --- Micro-Simulation --- Poverty --- Poverty Reduction --- Private Sector Development --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Transport --- Transport Economics Policy and Planning --- Volatility

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In this paper, we analyze how lack of credibility and transparency of monetary and fiscal policies undermines the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies to isolate the economy from commodity price fluctuations. We develop a general equilibrium model for a commodity-exporting economy where macro policies are conducted through rules. We show that the responses of output, aggregate demand, and inflation to an increase in commodity price are magnified when these rules are imperfectly credible and lack transparency. If policies are imperfectly credible, then transparency helps private agents to learn the systematic behavior of the authorities, reducing the effects of commodity prices shocks. Coherent with the model, we show cross-country evidence that monetary policy transparency and fiscal credibility reduce the incidence of export price volatility on output volatility. Also, our results indicate that having an explicit fiscal rule and an inflation targeting regime contribute to isolate the economy from terms of trade fluctuations.

Commodity control. --- International commodity control --- Commercial policy --- Cartels --- Producers' associations --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Monetary Policy --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Policy Objectives --- Policy Designs and Consistency --- Policy Coordination --- Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: General --- Commodity Markets --- Fiscal Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Commodity price shocks --- Fiscal policy --- Commodity price fluctuations --- Consumption --- Prices --- National accounts --- Economics --- United States

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This Selected Issues paper examines the performance of Uruguay’s exports, external balances, and relative price movements over the past decade and applies the IMF’s standard external sector assessment tools to Uruguay. The results indicate that Uruguay has made important strides in export performance, including expanding markets shares over the past decade, driven by trade competitiveness gains. The current account deficit has remained well contained and more than fully financed by foreign direct investment over the past decade, notwithstanding external shocks. At the same time, the real exchange rate has appreciated strongly in recent years. Standard IMF equilibrium real exchange rate valuation models also suggest that the Uruguayan peso is slightly stronger than its equilibrium level.

Finance, Public --- Cameralistics --- Public finance --- Public finances --- Currency question --- Exports and Imports --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Real Estate --- Natural Resource Extraction --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets --- Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction: General --- Trade: General --- Commodity Markets --- International economics --- Property & real estate --- Extractive industries --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Land prices --- Mining sector --- Exports --- Commodity price shocks --- Prices --- Economic sectors --- International trade --- Housing --- Mineral industries --- Fiscal policy --- Uruguay

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Indian food and fuel inflation has remained high for several years, and second-round effects on core inflation are estimated to be large. This paper estimates the size of second-round effects using an estimated reduced-form general equilibrium model of the Indian economy, which incorporates pass-through from headline inflation to core inflation. The results indicate that India's inflation is highly inertial and persistent. Due to second-round effects, the gap between headline inflation and core inflation decreases by about three fourths within one year as core inflation catches up with headline inflation. Large second-round effects stem from several factors, such as the high share of food in household expenditure and the role of food inflation in informing inflation expectations and wage setting. Analysis suggests that in order to durably reduce the current high inflation, the monetary policy stance needs to remain tight for a considerable length of time. In addition, progress on structural reforms to raise potential growth is critical to reduce the burden on monetary policy.

Food prices --- Monetary policy --- Rural poor --- Rural poverty --- Poor --- Monetary management --- Economic policy --- Currency boards --- Money supply --- Food --- Agricultural prices --- Food industry and trade --- Econometric models. --- Economic conditions --- Prices --- Banks and Banking --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Monetary Policy --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation --- Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Commodity Markets --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Finance --- Output gap --- Real exchange rates --- Real interest rates --- Commodity price shocks --- Production --- Financial services --- Economic theory --- Interest rates --- India