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What does the minimum wage do?
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ISBN: 0880994568 0880994576 0880994584 9780880994569 9780880994583 9780880994576 Year: 2014 Publisher: Kalamazoo Michigan : W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research,

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"The minimum wage debate is, among other things, contentious, polarizing, and at the forefront of ongoing political debate. Some argue that raising the minimum wage will pull working individuals and families out of poverty while reducing income inequality at an acceptable cost to society. Others contend that raising the minimum wage is a job killer: that when the cost of labor increases, demand for that labor decreases. Supporters of this argument cite a February 2014 CBO report that points to potential job losses numbering 500,000 as a result of President Obama's proposed national minimum wage increase to $10.10 an hour. Others, including noted economists, criticize the report for being based on "off-the-shelf estimates" and say that it fails to put an emphasis on the more rigorous studies examined in the report. And while policymakers have voted recently to increase the minimum wage in several states and municipalities, it will be years before the impacts of these increases, if any, will be detectable. The bottom line is that all the debate and recent action by policymakers does little to add clarity to the effects of raising the minimum wage. Finally, this book helps settle the issue. Based on a rigorous meta-analysis of more than 200 scholarly publications published since 1991 (most after 2000) that address the various impacts of raising the minimum wage, What Does the Minimum Wage Do? presents the most comprehensive, analytical, and unbiased assessment of the effects of minimum wage increases that has ever been produced. Authors Dale Belman and Paul J. Wolfson look at several outcomes influenced by increases in the minimum wage, how long it takes those outcomes to respond, the magnitude of effects, why increases in the minimum wage have the results they do, and the workers most likely to be impacted. Their painstaking analysis focuses mainly on studies using data from the United States, but also includes studies that focus on Canada, Australia, New Zealand, the UK, and other western European nations. This breadth and depth of investigation on the impacts of hikes in the minimum wage clarifies the issues surrounding, among other things, employment, wages, poverty and inequality, and effect by gender, and allows them to conclude the following: Moderate increases in the minimum wage, characteristic of the United States over the last half of the twentieth century, have the effect that was intended by the original supporters of such action: raising the minimum wage substantially increases the earnings of those at the bottom of the income distribution and reduces wage inequality; Negative effects on employment resulting from increases in the minimum wage were too small to be statistically detectable in the meta-analysis. Therefore, Belman and Wolfson conclude, employment effects are too modest to have meaningful consequences for public policy in the dynamically changing U.S. labor market; Evidence of positive spillover effects on the wages of those earning slightly more than the new minimum wage is mixed, but it generally supports their existence, particularly for women; The minimum wage should be seen as one of a set of policy tools aimed at improving the standard of living of the less well-off, and moderate increases in the minimum wage would likely aid low-income individuals and families, with acceptable costs to the nation. Interested in the effects of raising the minimum wage? If so, What Does the Minimum Wage Do? is essential reading."--Publisher's website.


Book
Youth Unemployment in Advanced Economies in Europe : Searching for Solutions
Authors: --- --- ---
ISBN: 1475595794 1484357620 9781475595796 9781484357620 Year: 2014 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The SDN will assess the youth unemployment problem in advanced European countries, with a special focus on the euro area. It will document the main trends in youth and adult unemployment in 22 European countries before and after the global financial crisis. It will identify the main drivers of youth and adult unemployment, focusing in particular on the role of the business cycle and structural characteristics of the labor market. It will outline the main elements of a comprehensive strategy to address the problem.


Book
Minimum Wages and Firm Employment : Evidence from China
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ISBN: 1498338984 Year: 2014 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper provides the first systematic study of how minimum wage policies in China affect firm employment over the 2000-2007 periods. Using a novel dataset of minimum wage regulations across more than 2,800 counties matched with firm-level data, we investigate both the effect of the minimum wage and its policy enforcement tightening in 2004. A dynamic panel (difference GMM) estimator is combined with a “neighbor-pairs-approach” to control for unobservable heterogeneity common to “border counties” that are subject to different minimum wage changes. We show that minimum wage increases have a significant negative impact on employment, with an estimated elasticity of -0.1. Furthermore, we find a heterogeneous effect of the minimum wage on employment which depends on the firm's wage level. Specifically, the minimum wage has a greater negative impact on employment in low-wage firms than in high-wage firms. Our results are robust for different treatment groups, sample attrition correction, and placebo tests.


Book
Labor Tax Cuts and Employment : A General Equilibrium Approach for France
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ISBN: 1498381979 1498386474 1498346251 Year: 2014 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The paper presents a simple supply side, general equilibrium model to estimate the macroeconomic effects of labor tax cuts. The model assumes that output is produced using capital, unskilled and skilled workers, and public servants. Wage formation for skilled workers features a Blanchflower-Oswald wage curve, while the labor supply for unskilled workers is very elastic around the minimum wage for small changes in employment. The model is calibrated for France and used to estimate the output and employment effects induced by two recent tax reforms: the Crédit d’Impôt pour la Compétitivité et l’Emploi (CICE) and the Pacte de Solidarité Responsabilité (RSP). We find that the tax cuts, if not offset by other fiscal measures, would contribute overall to creating around 200,000 jobs in the short run (600,000 jobs in the long run). Since the model abstracts from demand side effects, the results should be interpreted as providing estimates of the effect of tax measures on potential output and potential employment.


Book
Hungary : Selected Issues.
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ISBN: 1498341004 1498317642 1498395678 Year: 2014 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This Selected Issues paper assesses recent trends in Hungary’s potential growth and medium-term growth prospects. It analyzes to what extent the recent moderation of GDP growth reflects structural factors. The paper lays out some stylized facts about the Hungarian economy that could explain the growth slowdown observed in recent years. It provides estimates of potential growth using various methods, identifies the sources of the growth slowdown, and offers forecasts of potential growth over the medium-term under the baseline scenario. A model-based approach is also employed to estimate potential growth over the medium term under a reform scenario.


Book
France : Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation.
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ISBN: 1498327516 1498337392 1498324169 Year: 2014 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that the economy of France fared better than most other large euro areas economies through the crisis, reflecting the resilience of private consumption, lack of financial fragmentation, and lower levels of household and corporate debt. Banks’ financial position has also been strengthened. But after two years of near stagnation, unemployment remains high. A loss of competitiveness has also weighed on growth. The outlook is for a gradual recovery, with GDP growth projected at 0.7 percent in 2014 and 1.4 percent in 2015, based on stronger external and domestic private demand, reflecting gains in real disposable income and improved profit margins.


Book
United States : Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation.
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ISBN: 1498394965 1498342736 1484347870 Year: 2014 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Focus. The 2014 Article IV Consultation focused on five broad themes to strengthen the recovery and improve the long-term outlook: raising productivity growth and labor force participation, confronting poverty, keeping public debt on a sustained downward path, smoothly managing the exit from zero policy rates, and securing a safer financial system. Main policy issues. • Policies are needed to boost longer-term potential output through investments in infrastructure, raising educational outcomes, improving the tax structure, and developing and expanding a skilled labor force (including through immigration reform, job training, and providing childcare assistance for working families). • Forging agreement on a credible, medium-term consolidation plan should be a high priority and include steps to lower the growth of health care costs, reform social security, and increase revenues. In the absence of such a comprehensive agreement, efforts should still focus on identifying more modest opportunities to relax the near- term budget envelope, paid for with future fiscal savings. • An enduring consequence of the past recession has been a jump in the number of families living in poverty. Improved employment prospects and economic growth will be essential to reverse this upward movement. An expansion of the Earned Income Tax Credit and an increase in the minimum wage should also be part of the solution. • The goal for monetary policy is to manage the exit from zero interest rates in a manner that allows the economy to converge to full employment with stable prices while avoiding financial instability and negative spillovers to the global economy. This is a complex undertaking. To facilitate it, steps could be taken to expand the Fed’s communications toolkit so as to provide greater clarity on how the Federal Open Market Committee assesses progress toward its longer-run goals. • Continued regulatory oversight is needed to counter the emergence of financial imbalances, particularly those that may be growing outside of the banking system. Policies should also be deployed to keep mortgage credit accessible and attract more private capital into housing finance while minimizing risks to taxpayers. • The U.S. external position is assessed to be broadly consistent with medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies.


Book
Germany : Selected Issues.
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ISBN: 1498377785 1498384013 1498323812 Year: 2014 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This Selected Issues paper on Germany focuses on current economic condition in the country. The build-up of Germany’s current account surplus over the last decade does not lend itself to a single-factor explanation, as both global and domestic factors, as well as policy changes led to increased savings and lower investment. All sectors contributed to the build-up of the surplus. Although fiscal consolidation and higher household savings played a role, the corporate sector experienced a more pronounced shift. This paper provides a retrospective on these developments and explores whether the factors contributing to the surplus are likely to be reversed going forward. Although there are common global drivers for the non-financial corporations shift to a net lender position, several German-specific factors played a role, notably the labor market reforms in the 2000s, the business tax reforms, and the globalization of German firms’ production chains. The households’ saving–investment gap widened in the early 2000s as the pension reforms and growing income inequality boosted households’ savings and residential investment declined by the end of the reunification construction boom.


Book
Germany : Staff Report for the 2014 Article IV Consultation.
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ISBN: 1498324983 1498318541 1498321852 Year: 2014 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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KEY ISSUES Context: ? Germany fundamentals are sound: balance sheets are generally healthy, unemployment is at a historic low, and the fiscal position is strong. ? While a recovery is underway, medium-term growth prospects are subdued and the current account surplus remains high. The economy also faces a still weak international environment, lingering uncertainty (including about future energy costs), and fast approaching adverse demographic changes. ? Germany could do more to increase its growth, thus strengthening its role as an engine of euro area recovery. Policy recommendations: ? Germany has the fiscal space to finance an increase in needed public investment, particularly in the transport infrastructure. Unlike public consumption, this would durably raise German output and have measurable growth spillovers on the rest of the euro area. ? Further reforms in services sector regulation would boost competition and productivity. ? Greater clarity about the future energy sector regulatory framework would encourage private investment in the energy infrastructure and beyond and strengthen the outlook. ? Decisions on the future level of the minimum wage should take into account the employment effects in certain regions. ? Banks should keep strengthening their capital position ahead of the completion of the ECB’s Comprehensive Assessment. ? The macroprudential framework needs to be ready as monetary conditions are set to remain accommodative for a prolonged period.

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