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The paper investigates asymmetry in the allocation of aggregate demand shocks between real output growth and price inflation over the business cycle in a sample of fifteen Caribbean countries. In most countries, the evidence indicates the existence of structural constraints, implying that positive demand shocks feed predominantly into prices while negative demand shocks mainly affect output. The high variability of aggregate demand in Caribbean countries, frequently exposed to shocks that are exacerbated by pro-cyclical policy stance, tends to create an upward bias on inflation and a downward bias on real output growth, on average, over time. The analysis highlights the benefits of eliminating structural rigidities responsible for asymmetric real and inflationary effects and points to the dangers of procyclical macroeconomic policies that exacerbate the adverse effects of demand variability.

Supply and demand --- Inflation (Finance) --- Business cycles --- Economic development --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- Economic policy --- Economics --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Development economics --- Resource curse --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Cycles --- Finance --- Natural rate of unemployment --- Demand and supply --- Industrial production --- Law of supply and demand --- Competition --- Exchange --- Overproduction --- Prices --- Value --- Econometric models. --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Business Fluctuations --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Exchange rates --- Production growth --- Sticky prices --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Production --- Economic theory --- Suriname

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This paper reexamines the relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization (BCS) using new value-added trade data for 63 advanced and emerging economies during 1995–2012. In a panel framework, we identify a strong positive impact of trade intensity on BCS—conditional on various controls, global common shocks and country-pair heterogeneity—that is absent when gross trade data are used. That effect is bigger in crisis times, pointing to trade as an important crisis propagation mechanism. Bilateral intra-industry trade and trade specialization correlation also appear to increase co-movement, indicating that not only the intensity but also the type of trade matters. Finally, we show that dependence on Chinese final demand in value-added terms amplifies the international spillovers and synchronizing impact of growth shocks in China.

Business cycles --- Business --- Foreign exchange rates --- Globalization --- Global cities --- Globalisation --- Internationalization --- International relations --- Anti-globalization movement --- Trade --- Economics --- Management --- Commerce --- Industrial management --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Cycles --- History. --- Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Macroeconomics --- Business Fluctuations --- International Policy Coordination and Transmission --- Financial Aspects of Economic Integration --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Trade: General --- International economics --- Economic growth --- Finance --- Trade integration --- Financial integration --- Plurilateral trade --- Exports --- Economic integration --- Financial markets --- International trade --- International economic integration --- International finance --- China, People's Republic of

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This review assesses regulatory management in Kazakhstan. It provides concrete recommendations on strategies, institutions and tools to improve the quality of the regulatory environment in Kazakhstan.

Governance --- Business & Economics --- Economic Theory --- Kazakhstan --- Business cycles --- Infrastructure (Economics) --- Capital, Social (Economics) --- Economic infrastructure --- Social capital (Economics) --- Social infrastructure --- Social overhead capital --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Economic development --- Human settlements --- Public goods --- Public works --- Capital --- Cycles --- Economic policy.

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"Real Business Cycle (RBC) Theory holds that random fluctuations in productivity are what causes the business cycle. Economists have come up with different models over the years which attempt to explain patterns in real business cycles, though the two which dominate proceedings are Kydland & Prescott's and Long & Plosser's models. The purpose of this book is to describe the intellectual process by which RBC models developed. The approach taken focuses on the core elements in the development of RBC models: (i) building blocks, (ii) catalysts, and (iii) meta-syntheses. This is done by detailed examination of all available unpublished variorum drafts of the key papers in the RBC story, so as to determine the origins of the ideas. The analysis of the process their discovery is then set out followed by explanations of the evolution and dissemination of the models, from first generation papers through full blown research programs. This is supplemented by interviews and correspondence with the individuals who were at the center of the development of RBC models, such as Kydland, Prescott, Long, Plosser, King, Lucas and Barro, among others. This book gets stright to the heart of the debates surrounding RBC models and as such contributes to a real assessment of their impact on modern macroeconomics. The volume, therefore, will interest all scholars looking at macroeconomics as well as historians of economic thought more generally"-- "The purpose of this book is to describe the intellectual process by which Real Business Cycle models developed. The approach taken focuses on the core elements in the development of RBC models: (i) building blocks, (ii) catalysts, and (iii) meta-syntheses. This is done by detailed examination of all available unpublished variorum drafts of the key papers in the RBC story, so as to determine the origins of the ideas. The analysis of the process their discovery is then set out followed by explanations of the evolution and dissemination of the models, from first generation papers through full blown research programs. This is supplemented by interviews and correspondence with the individuals who were at the center of the development of RBC models, such as Kydland, Prescott, Long, Plosser, King, Lucas and Barro, among others. This book gets stright to the heart of the debates surrounding RBC models and as such contributes to a real assessment of their impact on modern macroeconomics. The volume, therefore, will interest all scholars looking at macroeconomics as well as historians of economic thought more generally"--

Business cycles --- Mathematical models --- 330.3 --- 331.05 --- AA / International- internationaal --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Cycles --- Methode in staathuishoudkunde. Statische, dynamische economie. Modellen. Experimental economics --- Econometrische analyse van de economische bewegingen en cycli --- Business cycles - Mathematical models

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Anecdotal evidence suggests that the economies of South Africa and its neighbors (Botswana, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, Swaziland, and Zimbabwe) are tightly integrated with each other. There are important institutional linkages. Across the region there are also large flows of goods and capital, significant financial sector interconnections, as well as sizeable labor movements and associated remittance flows. These interconnections suggest that South Africa’s GDP growth rate should affect positively its neighbors’, a point we illustrate formally with the help of numerical simulations of the IMF’s GIMF model. However, our review and update of the available econometric evidence suggest that there is no strong evidence of real spillovers in the region after 1994, once global shocks are controlled for. More generally, we find no evidence of real spillovers from South Africa to the rest of the continent post-1994. We investigate the possible reasons for this lack of spillovers. Most importantly, the economies of South Africa and the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa might have de-coupled in the mid-1990s. That is when international sanctions on South Africa ended and the country re-integrated with the global economy, while growth in the rest of the continent accelerated due to a combination of domestic and external factors.

Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Externalities --- Trade: General --- Education: General --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- International economics --- Education --- Economic growth --- Spillovers --- Exports --- Imports --- Business cycles --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- International trade --- International finance --- South Africa