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The Mystery of Missing Real Spillovers in Southern Africa : Some Facts and Possible Explanations
Authors: --- --- ---
ISBN: 1498360270 1498354343 Year: 2014 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

Anecdotal evidence suggests that the economies of South Africa and its neighbors (Botswana, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, Swaziland, and Zimbabwe) are tightly integrated with each other. There are important institutional linkages. Across the region there are also large flows of goods and capital, significant financial sector interconnections, as well as sizeable labor movements and associated remittance flows. These interconnections suggest that South Africa’s GDP growth rate should affect positively its neighbors’, a point we illustrate formally with the help of numerical simulations of the IMF’s GIMF model. However, our review and update of the available econometric evidence suggest that there is no strong evidence of real spillovers in the region after 1994, once global shocks are controlled for. More generally, we find no evidence of real spillovers from South Africa to the rest of the continent post-1994. We investigate the possible reasons for this lack of spillovers. Most importantly, the economies of South Africa and the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa might have de-coupled in the mid-1990s. That is when international sanctions on South Africa ended and the country re-integrated with the global economy, while growth in the rest of the continent accelerated due to a combination of domestic and external factors.


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Local Intermediate Inputs and the Shared Supplier Spillovers of Foreign Direct Investment
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Year: 2014 Publisher: Washington, D.C., The World Bank,

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Trade liberalizations have been shown to improve domestic firms' performance through the new varieties of imported intermediate inputs. This paper uses a unique, representative sample of Bangladeshi garment firms to highlight that local intermediate inputs may also enhance domestic firms' performance, through the shared supplier spillovers of foreign direct investment (FDI) firms. An exogenous EU trade policy shock is shown to cause some FDI firms in Bangladesh to expand, which led to better performance of the domestic firms that shared their suppliers. Overall, the shared supplier spillovers of FDI explain 1/4 of the product scope expansion and 1/3 of the productivity gains within domestic firms.


Book
Basic cost benefit analysis for assessing local public projects
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1606496379 Year: 2014 Publisher: New York, New York (222 East 46th Street, New York, NY 10017) : Business Expert Press,

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This book presents essential elements for understanding, interpreting, and conducting cost benefit analysis (CBA) in the context of local government. The cost benefit technique is so often referenced in government policy that a correct understanding is necessary for officials entrusted with public decisions. It is especially useful for those charged with preparing numerical analyses to assess the worthiness of a specific policy proposal. In this manual, costs and benefits are identified and analyzed in terms of economic efficiency and resource allocation.


Book
Sovereign CDS Spreads in Europe : The Role of Global Risk Aversion, Economic Fundamentals, Liquidity, and Spillovers
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1484393880 1484393627 148439416X Year: 2014 Volume: WP/14/17 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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By analysing data from January 2007 to December 2012 in a panel GLS error correction framework we find that European countries’ sovereign CDS spreads are largely driven by global investor sentiment, macroeconomic fundamentals and liquidity conditions in the CDS market. But the relative importance of these factors changes over time. While during the 2008/09 crisis weak economic fundamentals (such as high current account decifit, worsening underlying fiscal balances, credit boom), a drop in liquidity and a spike in risk aversion contributed to high spreads in Central and Eastern and South-Eastern European (CESEE) countries, a marked improvement in fundamentals (e.g. reduction in fiscal deficit, narrowing of current balances, gradual economic recovery) explains the region’s resilience to financial market spillovers during the euro area crisis. Our generalised variance decomposition analyisis does not suggest strong direct spillovers from the euro area periphery. The significant drop in the CDS spreads between July 2012 and December 2012 was mainly driven by a decline in risk aversion as suggested by the model’s out of sample forecasts.


Book
Spillovers from United States Monetary Policy on Emerging Markets : Different This Time?
Authors: --- --- ---
ISBN: 1498394124 1498310575 Year: 2014 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The impact of monetary policy in large advanced countries on emerging market economies—dubbed spillovers—is hotly debated in global and national policy circles. When the U.S. resorted to unconventional monetary policy, spillovers on asset prices and capital flows were significant, though remained smaller in countries with better fundamentals. This was not because monetary policy shocks changed (in size, sign or impact on stance). In fact, the traditional signaling channel of monetary policy continued to play the leading role in transmitting shocks, relative to other channels, affecting longer-term bond yields. Instead, we find that larger spillovers stem more from structural factors, such as the use of new instruments (asset purchases). We obtain these results by developing a new methodology to extract, separate, and interpret U.S. monetary policy shocks.


Book
Das Public Kapital : How Much Would Higher German Public Investment Help Germany and the Euro Area?
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1498359221 149831094X Year: 2014 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Given the backdrop of pressing infrastructure needs, this paper argues that higher German public investment would not only stimulate domestic demand in the near term and reduce the current account surplus, but would also raise output over the longer-run as well as generate beneficial regional spillovers. While time-to-build delays can weaken the impact of the stimulus in the short-run, the expansionary effects of higher public investment are substantially strengthened with an accommodative monetary policy stance—as is typical during periods of economic slack. The current low-interest rate environment presents a window of opportunity to finance higher public investment at historically favorable rates.


Book
Transmission of Financial Stress in Europe : The Pivotal Role of Italy and Spain, but not Greece
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1484368355 1484368347 147551848X Year: 2014 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper proposes a stochastic volatility model to measure sovereign financial distress. It examines how key European sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads affect each other; specifically, the paper analyses the volatility structure of Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Spain and Portugal. The stability of Germany is a close proxy for the resilience of the euro area as markets use Germany’s sovereign CDS as a hedge for systemic risk. Although most of the CDS changes for Germany during 2009–12 were due to idiosyncratic factors, market developments in Italy and Spain contributed significantly, likely due to their relative importance in the region. Changes in Greece’s sovereign CDS had no significant effect on Germany’s sovereign CDS despite initial widespread concerns about such linkages. Spain and Italy show a notable co-dependence in explaining each other’s volatility while Germany also plays an important role. It is found that extreme bad news led to persistent and nearly permanent effects on the stochastic volatility of European sovereign CDS spreads.


Book
Monetary Policy Coordination and the Role of Central Banks
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1484363302 1484362896 1484363329 Year: 2014 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The unconventional monetary policies (UMPs) pursued by the advanced economies (AEs) have posed macroeconomic challenges for the emerging market economies (EMEs) through volatile capital flows and exchange rates. AE central banks need to acknowledge and appreciate the spillovers resulting from such UMPs. Central banks of the AEs, who have set up standing mutual swap facilities, should explore similar arrangements with other significant EMEs with appropriate risk mitigation measures. These initiatives could do much to actually curb volatility in global financial markets and hence in capital flows to EMEs, thus obviating the need for defensive policy actions on the part of EMEs.


Book
Confronting Emerging Zoonoses : The One Health Paradigm
Authors: --- --- --- --- --- et al.
ISBN: 4431551204 4431551190 Year: 2014 Publisher: Tokyo : Springer Japan : Imprint: Springer,

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This book provides readers with information on the factors underlying the emergence of infectious diseases originating in animals and spreading to people. The One Health concept recognizes the important links between human, animal, and environmental health and provides an important strategy in epidemic mitigation and prevention. The essential premise of the One Health concept is to break down the silos among the different health professions and promote transdisciplinary collaborations. These concepts are illustrated with in-depth analyses of specific zoonotic agents and with examples of the successes and challenges associated with implementing One Health. The book also highlights some of the challenges societies face in confronting several specific zoonotic diseases. A chapter is included on comparative medicine to demonstrate the broad scope of the One Health concept. Edited by a team including the One Health Initiative pro bono members, the book is dedicated to those studying zoonotic diseases and comparative medicine in both human and veterinary medicine, to those involved in the prevention and control of zoonotic infections, and to those in the general public interested in the visionary field of One Health.

Keywords

Zoonoses. --- Communicable diseases. --- Public health. --- Community health --- Health services --- Hygiene, Public --- Hygiene, Social --- Public health services --- Public hygiene --- Sanitary affairs --- Social hygiene --- Health --- Human services --- Biosecurity --- Health literacy --- Medicine, Preventive --- National health services --- Sanitation --- Contagion and contagious diseases --- Contagious diseases --- Infectious diseases --- Microbial diseases in human beings --- Zymotic diseases --- Diseases --- Infection --- Epidemics --- Animal-borne diseases --- Communicable diseases between animals and human beings --- Zoonotic diseases --- Communicable diseases --- Animals as carriers of disease --- Medical virology. --- Bacteriology. --- Emerging infectious diseases. --- Virology. --- Infectious Diseases. --- Emerging infections --- New infectious diseases --- Re-emerging infectious diseases --- Reemerging infectious diseases --- Microbiology --- Medical microbiology --- Virology --- Virus diseases --- Zoonoses --- Communicable Diseases, Emerging --- Public Health Practice --- Communicable Disease Control --- Interdisciplinary Communication --- Communication Research --- Cross-Disciplinary Communication --- Multidisciplinary Communication --- Communication, Cross-Disciplinary --- Communication, Interdisciplinary --- Communication, Multidisciplinary --- Communications, Cross-Disciplinary --- Communications, Interdisciplinary --- Communications, Multidisciplinary --- Cross Disciplinary Communication --- Cross-Disciplinary Communications --- Interdisciplinary Communications --- Multidisciplinary Communications --- Research, Communication --- Interprofessional Relations --- Parasite Control --- Control, Communicable Disease --- Control, Parasite --- Communicable Diseases --- Infectious Disease Medicine --- Disease Eradication --- Health Practice, Public --- Health Practices, Public --- Practice, Public Health --- Practices, Public Health --- Public Health Practices --- Communicable Diseases, Re-Emerging --- Communicable Diseases, Reemerging --- Infectious Diseases, Re-Emerging --- Infectious Diseases, Reemerging --- Infectious Diseases, Emerging --- Communicable Disease, Emerging --- Communicable Disease, Re-Emerging --- Communicable Disease, Reemerging --- Communicable Diseases, Re Emerging --- Disease, Emerging Communicable --- Disease, Emerging Infectious --- Disease, Re-Emerging Communicable --- Disease, Re-Emerging Infectious --- Disease, Reemerging Communicable --- Disease, Reemerging Infectious --- Diseases, Emerging Communicable --- Diseases, Emerging Infectious --- Diseases, Re-Emerging Communicable --- Diseases, Re-Emerging Infectious --- Diseases, Reemerging Communicable --- Diseases, Reemerging Infectious --- Emerging Communicable Disease --- Emerging Communicable Diseases --- Emerging Infectious Disease --- Emerging Infectious Diseases --- Infectious Disease, Emerging --- Infectious Disease, Re-Emerging --- Infectious Disease, Reemerging --- Infectious Diseases, Re Emerging --- Re-Emerging Communicable Disease --- Re-Emerging Communicable Diseases --- Re-Emerging Infectious Disease --- Re-Emerging Infectious Diseases --- Reemerging Communicable Disease --- Reemerging Communicable Diseases --- Reemerging Infectious Disease --- Reemerging Infectious Diseases --- Communicable Diseases, Imported --- Zoonotic Diseases --- Zoonotic Infections --- Zoonotic Infectious Diseases --- Disease, Zoonotic --- Disease, Zoonotic Infectious --- Diseases, Zoonotic --- Diseases, Zoonotic Infectious --- Infection, Zoonotic --- Infections, Zoonotic --- Infectious Disease, Zoonotic --- Infectious Diseases, Zoonotic --- Zoonotic Disease --- Zoonotic Infection --- Zoonotic Infectious Disease --- Disease Reservoirs --- Public Health --- prevention & control --- Flatten the Curve of Epidemic --- Flattening the Curve, Communicable Disease Control --- Zoonotic Spillover --- Spillovers, Zoonotic --- Zoonotic Spillovers --- Infectious diseases.


Book
Determinants of Financial Market Spillovers : The Role of Portfolio Diversification, Trade, Home Bias, and Concentration
Author:
ISBN: 1498311873 1498327893 Year: 2014 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper defines financial market spillovers as the comovement between two countries’ financial markets and analyzes financial market spillovers over the period 2001-12 through four channels: bilateral portfolio investment, bilateral trade, home bias, and country concentration. The paper finds that, if a country has a large amount of bilateral portfolio exposure in another country, these two countries’ comovement of bond yields are large. Also, countries’ geographical preferences impact financial spillovers; if a country has a stronger home bias, the country could have less spillovers from foreign financial markets. A policy implication from this result is that, if countries become less home-biased and have a greater amount of portfolio investment assets, they should strengthen prudential regulations to mitigate against rising risks of financial spillovers (or risk greater volatility owing to comovement with foreign markets).

Keywords

Capital movements --- Capital market --- Investments --- Securities --- International trade. --- External trade --- Foreign commerce --- Foreign trade --- Global commerce --- Global trade --- Trade, International --- World trade --- Commerce --- International economic relations --- Non-traded goods --- Blue sky laws --- Capitalization (Finance) --- Investment securities --- Portfolio --- Scrip --- Securities law --- Underwriting --- Investment banking --- Investing --- Investment management --- Finance --- Disinvestment --- Loans --- Saving and investment --- Speculation --- Capital markets --- Market, Capital --- Financial institutions --- Money market --- Crowding out (Economics) --- Efficient market theory --- Capital flight --- Capital flows --- Capital inflow --- Capital outflow --- Flight of capital --- Flow of capital --- Movements of capital --- Balance of payments --- Foreign exchange --- International finance --- Econometric models. --- Law and legislation --- Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Investments: General --- Investments: Stocks --- Macroeconomics --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- International Policy Coordination and Transmission --- Portfolio Choice --- Investment Decisions --- International Financial Markets --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Externalities --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Investment & securities --- Spillovers --- Portfolio investment --- Stock markets --- Stocks --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Financial markets --- Portfolio management --- Stock exchanges --- Financial instruments --- United States

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