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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The first review discussions took place in a context of heightened geopolitical tensions and deepening economic crisis. Intensification of the conflict in the East and escalation of the gas dispute with Gazprom, two of the key risks identified at the time of the program request, have materialized. These developments have affected confidence, balance of payment flows, economic activity, and budget execution. The banking sector has had to cope with larger-than-anticipated deposit outflows, and the exchange rate has depreciated more than expected at the time of the program request. The authorities have implemented policies broadly as agreed, but significant pressures have emerged. All but one performance criteria for end-May were met and all structural benchmarks have been implemented, albeit some with a delay. However, the deterioration in the economic outlook, fiscal and quasi-fiscal pressures, and heightened balance of payment difficulties are putting the initial program targets in jeopardy. Two end-July PCs are estimated to have been missed; and the end-2014 targets are out of reach. All continuous PCs were met. Discussions focused on the appropriate policy response to these short-term pressures and on reforms to support sustained growth. There was agreement that the policy effort should focus on compensatory measures to meet key program objectives, while allowing some temporary deviations from the initial targets. In particular, the NBU will limit the decline in reserves through market purchases; the government will take additional fiscal measures to keep public finances sustainable; and Naftogaz will strengthen current and past gas bills collection. Discussions also focused on reforms aimed at modernizing the monetary policy framework, preserving financial stability, addressing governance issues and improving the business climate. Nonetheless, risks loom large. The program hinges crucially on the assumption that the conflict will begin to subside in the coming months. Should active fighting continue well beyond that, the small buffers under the revised baseline would be quickly exhausted, requiring a new strategy, including additional external financing. A further heightening of geopolitical tensions could also have significant economic consequences. Domestically, policymaking may become more difficult in case of early elections. Strong policy performance and adherence to the planned reforms is therefore critical. Staff supports the authorities’ request for completion of the first review and the waivers for nonobservance and applicability of performance criteria. The purchase released upon completion of the review would be in the amount of SDR 0.914 billion, of which SDR 0.650 billion will be used to finance the budget deficit.
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"The role of Western NGOs in the transition of postcommunist nations to democracy has been well documented. In this study, Paulina Pospieszna follows a different trajectory, examining the role of a former aid recipient (Poland), newly democratic itself, and its efforts to aid democratic transitions in the neighboring states of Belarus and Ukraine. Belarus is widely regarded as the most authoritarian state in the region, while Ukraine is witnessing a slow, if often troubled, democratic consolidation. Each state presents a different set of challenges to outside agencies. As Pospieszna shows, Poland is uniquely positioned to offer effective counsel on the transition to democracy. With similarities of language and culture, and a shared history, combined with strong civic activism and success within the European Union, Poland's regional policies have successfully combined its need for security and a motivation to spread democracy as primary concerns. Pospieszna details the founding, internal workings, goals, and methods of Poland's aid programs. She then compares the relative degrees of success of each in Belarus and Ukraine and documents the work yet to be done. As her theoretical basis, Pospieszna analyzes current thinking on the methods and effectiveness of NGOs in transitions to democracy, particularly U.S.- and European-led aid efforts. She then views the applicability of these methods to the case of Poland and its aid recipients. Overwhelmingly, Pospieszna finds the greatest success in developmental programs targeting civil society--workers, intellectuals, teachers, students, and other NGO actors. Through extensive interviews with government administrators and NGO workers in Poland and the United States, coupled with archival research, Pospieszna assembles an original perspective on the mitigation of the 'postcommunist divide'. Her work will serve as a model for students and scholars of states in transition, and it provides an overview of both successful and unsuccessful strategies employed by NGOs in democracy assistance. "--
POLITICAL SCIENCE / Political Ideologies / Democracy. --- POLITICAL SCIENCE / NGOs (Non-Governmental Organizations). --- Democratization --- Democratic consolidation --- Democratic transition --- Political science --- New democracies --- Poland --- Ukraine --- Belarus --- Poyln --- Polska Rzeczpospolita Ludowa --- Polʹsha --- P.N.R. --- P.R.L. --- Pologne --- Polish Commonwealth --- Polonia --- Warsaw (Duchy) --- Polska --- Polsko --- T︠S︡arstvo Polʹskoe --- Królestwo Polskie --- Polʹskai︠a︡ Narodnai︠a︡ Respublika --- PNR --- PRL --- Poljska --- Lehastan --- Polin --- Būlūniyā --- Polonyah --- République populaire de Pologne --- Polen --- Ppolsŭkka --- Polish People's Republic --- Republic of Poland --- Poland (Territory under German occupation, 1939-1945) --- Generalgouvernement (Poland) --- Generalne Gubernatorstwo (Poland) --- General Government (Poland) --- Heneralʹna hubernii︠a︡ (Poland) --- Rzeczpospolita Polska --- Polish Republic --- Congress Kingdom of Poland --- Congress Poland --- Królestwo Kongresowe Polskie --- Kongresówka --- Kingdom of Poland --- Lahistān --- لهستان --- Polandia --- Полшэ --- Polshė --- Pole --- Republiek van Pole --- Republik Pole --- Polaland --- Polisce Cynewise --- Полша --- Полониа --- بولندا --- Būlandā --- Polóña --- Tavakuairetã Polóña --- Польша --- Puluña --- Ripublika Puluña --- Polşa --- Polşa Respublikası --- Pulandia --- Ripublik Pulandia --- Pho-lân --- Pho-lân Kiōng-hô-kok --- Польшча --- Polʹshcha --- Рэспубліка Польшча --- Rėspublika Polʹshcha --- Polonya --- Република Полша --- Republika Polsha --- Poin --- Republika Poljska --- Польшо --- Polʹsho --- Bu̇gėdė Naĭramdakha Polʹsho Ulas --- Polská republika --- Polaki --- Gwlad Pwyl --- Gweriniaeth Gwlad Pwyl --- Republikken Polen --- Republik Polen --- Poola --- Poola Vabariik --- Πολωνία --- Pulógna --- Польша Мастор --- Polʹsha Mastor --- República de Polonia --- Pollando --- Respubliko Pollando --- Repúbrica de Poloña --- Poloniako Errepublika --- Pólland --- République de Pologne --- Poalen --- Poloonya --- Polonie --- An Pholainn --- Pholainn --- Poblacht na Polainne --- Yn Pholynn --- Pholynn --- Pobblaght ny Polynn --- A' Phòlainn --- Poblachd na Pòlainn --- Borandi --- Pô-làn --- Польшин Орн --- Polʹshin Orn --- 폴란드 --- P'ollandŭ --- Pōlani --- Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth --- Crown of the Kingdom of Poland and the Grand Duchy of Lithuania --- Commonwealth of Poland --- Lehastani Hanrapetutʻyun --- Польшæ --- Polʹshæ --- Польшæйы Республикæ --- Polʹshæĭy Respublikæ --- IPoland --- IPolandi --- Lýðveldið Pólland --- Repubblica di Polonia --- פולין --- רפובליקת פולין --- Republiḳat Polin --- Poleni --- Kunngiitsuuffik Poleni --- Pòlskô Repùblika --- Poloni --- Polonye --- Polòy --- Puoleja --- Puolejis Republika --- Polija --- Polijas Republika --- Lenkija --- Lenkijos Respublika --- Polsca --- Republica de Polsca --- Pol'šu --- Polskas --- Bupoolo --- Bupolska --- Ripablik kya Bupoolo --- Lengyelország --- Lengyel Köztársaság --- Lithuania (Grand Duchy) --- Republic of Belarus --- Rėspublika Belarusʹ --- Republic of Byelarusʹ --- Respublika Byelarusʹ --- Byelarus --- République de Bélarus --- República de Belarús --- Republik Belarus --- Weissrussland --- White Russia --- Belorussia --- Belorus --- Biélorussie --- Bielorussia --- Białoruś --- Беларусь --- Рэспубліка Беларусь --- Республика Беларусь --- ベラルーシ --- Berarūshi --- Byelorussian S.S.R. --- An Úcráin --- I-Yukreyini --- IYukreyini --- Malorosii︠a︡ --- Małorosja --- Oekraïne --- Ookraan --- Oukraïne --- Oykrania --- Petite-Russie --- U.S.R.R. --- Ucrægna --- Úcráin --- Ucraina --- Ucrania --- Ucrayena --- ʻUkelena --- Ukraïna --- Ukrainæ --- Uḳraʼinah --- Ukrainian Council Socialist Republic --- Ukrainian S.S.R. --- Ukrainian Socialist Soviet Republic --- Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic --- Ukrainio --- Ukrainmudin Orn --- Ukraïnsʹka Radi︠a︡nsʹka Sot︠s︡ialistychna Respublika --- Ukrainska Radyanska Sotsialistychna Respublika --- Ukrainska Sotsialistychna Radianska Respublika --- Ukraïnsʹka Sot︠s︡ii︠a︡listychna Radi︠a︡nsʹka Respublika --- Ukrainskai︠a︡ Sovetskai︠a︡ Sot︠s︡ialisticheskai︠a︡ Respublika --- Ukrainskaya Sovetskaya Sotsialisticheskaya Respublika --- Ukrainujo --- Ukrajina --- Ūkrāniyā --- Ukranya --- Ukrayiina --- Ukrayina --- Ukrayna --- Ukuraina --- Ukyáña --- Wcráin --- Yn Ookraan --- Yr Wcráin --- Yukrain --- Ουκρανία --- Украинæ --- Украина --- Украинэ --- Украинмудин Орн --- Україна --- אוקראינע --- אוקראינה --- أوكرانيا --- ウクライナ --- 우크라이나 --- Ukraine (Hetmanate : 1648-1782) --- Foreign relations --- General Government for Occupied Polish Territories
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