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English (6)


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2014 (6)

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Digital
Accounting for Post-Crisis Inflation and Employment : A Retro Analysis
Authors: ---
Year: 2014 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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Abstract

What accounts for inflation after 2008? We use the prominent pre-crisis Smets-Wouters (2007) model to address this question. We find that due to price markup shocks alone inflation would have been 1% higher than observed and 0.5% higher that the long-run average. Their standard deviation is similar to its pre-crisis level. Price markup shocks were also responsible for the slow recovery of employment, though not for the initial drop. Monetary policy shocks predict an inflation rate 0.5% below average. Government expenditure innovations do not contribute much either to inflation or to employment dynamics.


Digital
Corporate Debt Structure and the Financial Crisis
Authors: ---
Year: 2014 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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Abstract

We present a DSGE model where firms optimally choose among alternative instruments of external finance. The model is used to explain the evolving composition of corporate debt during the financial crisis of 2008-09, namely the observed shift from bank finance to bond finance, at a time when the cost of market debt rose above the cost of bank loans. We show that the flexibility offered by banks on the terms of their loans and firm's ability to substitute among alternative instruments of debt finance are important to shield the economy from adverse real effects of a financial crisis.


Digital
Financial Health Economics
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2014 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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Abstract

We provide a theoretical and empirical analysis of the link between financial and real health care markets. We document a “medical innovation premium” of 4-6% annually for equity of medical firms and analyze the implications it has for the growth of the health care sector. We interpret the premium as compensating investors for government-induced proft risk. We provide supportive evidence for this hypothesis through company filings and abnormal return patterns surrounding threats of government intervention. We quantify the implications of the premium for growth in real health care spending by calibrating our model to match historical trends. Policies that had removed government risk would have lead to more than a doubling of medical R&D and would have increased the current share of health care spending by 4% of GDP, with a predicted long run share of 38%.


Book
Corporate Debt Structure and the Financial Crisis
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2014 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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Abstract

We present a DSGE model where firms optimally choose among alternative instruments of external finance. The model is used to explain the evolving composition of corporate debt during the financial crisis of 2008-09, namely the observed shift from bank finance to bond finance, at a time when the cost of market debt rose above the cost of bank loans. We show that the flexibility offered by banks on the terms of their loans and firm's ability to substitute among alternative instruments of debt finance are important to shield the economy from adverse real effects of a financial crisis.

Keywords


Book
Accounting for Post-Crisis Inflation and Employment : A Retro Analysis
Authors: --- ---
Year: 2014 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

Loading...
Export citation

Choose an application

Bookmark

Abstract

What accounts for inflation after 2008? We use the prominent pre-crisis Smets-Wouters (2007) model to address this question. We find that due to price markup shocks alone inflation would have been 1% higher than observed and 0.5% higher that the long-run average. Their standard deviation is similar to its pre-crisis level. Price markup shocks were also responsible for the slow recovery of employment, though not for the initial drop. Monetary policy shocks predict an inflation rate 0.5% below average. Government expenditure innovations do not contribute much either to inflation or to employment dynamics.

Keywords


Book
Financial Health Economics
Authors: --- --- ---
Year: 2014 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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Abstract

We provide a theoretical and empirical analysis of the link between financial and real health care markets. This link is important as financial returns drive investment in medical research and development (R&D), which in turn, affects real spending growth. We document a "medical innovation premium" of 4-6% annually for equity returns of firms in the health care sector. We interpret this premium as compensating investors for government-induced profit risk, and we provide supportive evidence for this hypothesis through company filings and abnormal return patterns surrounding threats of government intervention. We quantify the implications of the premium for the growth in real health care spending by calibrating our model to match historical trends, predicting the share of GDP devoted to health care to be 32% in the long run. Policies that had removed government risk would have led to more than a doubling of medical R&D and would have increased the current share of health care spending by more than 3% of GDP.

Keywords

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