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In a general equilibrium product-cycle model, lower trade barriers increase Southern purchasing power, which lifts long-run growth by increasing the profit from innovation. In the short run, factors of production must be reallocated inside firms, which lowers the opportunity cost of innovation, generating an additional trapped factor effect. Starting from a baseline OECD growth rate of 2% we find that trade integration with low-wage countries in the decade around China's WTO accession could have increased long-run growth to 2.4%. There is an additional short-run trapped factors effect, raising growth to 2.7%. China accounts for about half of these growth increases.

Zonder onderwerpscode: economie

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There appears to be a strong upward drift in policy-related economic uncertainty after 1960. We consider two classes of explanations for this rise. The first stresses growth in government spending, taxes, and regulation. A second stresses increased political polarization and its implications for the policy-making process and policy choices. While the evidence is inconclusive, it suggests that both factors play a role in driving the secular increase in policy uncertainty over the last half century.

Zonder onderwerpscode: economie

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Over the last decade the World Management Survey (WMS) has collected firm-level management practices data across multiple sectors and countries. We developed the survey to try to explain the large and persistent TFP differences across firms and countries. This review paper discusses what has been learned empirically and theoretically from the WMS and other recent work on management practices. Our preliminary results suggest that about a quarter of cross-country and within-country TFP gaps can be accounted for by management practices. Management seems to matter both qualitatively and quantitatively. Competition, governance, human capital and informational frictions help account for the variation in management.