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En la edición de abril de 2012 de Perspectivas de la economía mundial se evalúa el panorama al que se enfrenta la economía a escala internacional, que muestra un fortalecimiento gradual tras el fuerte revés sufrido en 2011. La amenaza de una abrupta desaceleración mundial se vio contenida debido a que mejoró la actividad en Estados Unidos y se aplicaron políticas más idóneas en la zona del euro en respuesta a la profundización de la crisis europea. Por lo tanto, es probable que en las principales economías avanzadas se reinicie una recuperación débil y se prevé que en la mayoría de las economías emergentes y en desarrollo la actividad seguirá siendo relativamente sólida. No obstante, los avances recientes son muy frágiles. Las autoridades de política económica deben calibrar las políticas de estímulo al crecimiento en el corto plazo y deben implementar reformas fundamentales para lograr un crecimiento sano en el mediano plazo. En el capítulo 3 se examina de qué manera las políticas enfocadas en los mercados inmobiliarios pueden acelerar la mejora de los balances de los hogares y, por tanto, estimular un consumo que de otra manera sería anémico. Los países que han adoptado políticas de esta naturaleza ya han obtenido grandes beneficios. En general, sin embargo, el temor en torno al riesgo moral ha sido un obstáculo en este proceso. En el capítulo 4 se examina de qué manera las oscilaciones de precios de las materias primas afectan a las economías que las exportan. Muchas economías emergentes y en desarrollo han acumulado casi una década de alto crecimiento, en parte gracias a la rápida expansión del crédito o a los altos precios de las materias primas. Sin embargo, es poco probable que los precios de las materias primas sigan aumentando a un ritmo tan acelerado, y posiblemente sea necesario adaptar las políticas fiscales y otras políticas económicas a un menor crecimiento potencial del producto.

Investments: Commodities --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Real Estate --- Industries: Financial Services --- Commodity Markets --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Trade: General --- Housing Supply and Markets --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- International economics --- Finance --- Investment & securities --- Property & real estate --- Commodity prices --- Housing prices --- Commodities --- Oil prices --- Housing --- Commercial products --- Banks and banking --- United States

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The April 2012 edition of the World Economic Outlook assesses the prospects for the global economy, which has gradually strengthened after a major setback during 2011. The threat of a sharp global slowdown eased with improved activity in the United States and better policies in the euro area. Weak recovery will likely resume in the major advanced economies, and activity will remain relatively solid in most emerging and developing economies. However, recent improvements are very fragile. Policymakers must calibrate policies to support growth in the near term and must implement fundamental changes to achieve healthy growth in the medium term. Chapter 3 examines how policies directed at real estate markets can accelerate the improvement of household balance sheets and thus support otherwise anemic consumption. Chapter 4 examines how swings in commodity prices affect commodity exporting economies, many of which have experienced a decade of good growth. With commodity prices unlikely to continue growing at the recent elevated pace, however, these economies may have to adapt their fiscal and other policies to lower potential output growth in the future.

Banks and banking --- Banks --- Commercial products --- Commodities --- Commodity Markets --- Commodity prices --- Depository Institutions --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Exports and Imports --- Finance --- Housing prices --- Housing Supply and Markets --- Housing --- Industries: Financial Services --- International economics --- Investment & securities --- Investments: Commodities --- Macroeconomics --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Oil prices --- Prices --- Property & real estate --- Real Estate --- Trade: General --- United States

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The April 2012 edition of the World Economic Outlook assesses the prospects for the global economy, which has gradually strengthened after a major setback during 2011. The threat of a sharp global slowdown eased with improved activity in the United States and better policies in the euro area. Weak recovery will likely resume in the major advanced economies, and activity will remain relatively solid in most emerging and developing economies. However, recent improvements are very fragile. Policymakers must calibrate policies to support growth in the near term and must implement fundamental changes to achieve healthy growth in the medium term. Chapter 3 examines how policies directed at real estate markets can accelerate the improvement of household balance sheets and thus support otherwise anemic consumption. Chapter 4 examines how swings in commodity prices affect commodity exporting economies, many of which have experienced a decade of good growth. With commodity prices unlikely to continue growing at the recent elevated pace, however, these economies may have to adapt their fiscal and other policies to lower potential output growth in the future.

Banks and banking --- Banks --- Commercial products --- Commodities --- Commodity Markets --- Commodity prices --- Depository Institutions --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Exports and Imports --- Finance --- Housing prices --- Housing Supply and Markets --- Housing --- Industries: Financial Services --- International economics --- Investment & securities --- Investments: Commodities --- Macroeconomics --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Oil prices --- Prices --- Property & real estate --- Real Estate --- Trade: General --- United States

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A surge of exports in the 2000s helped Japan exit the severe decade-long stagnation known as the lost decade. Using panel data of Japanese exporting firms, we examine the sources of the export surge during this period. One view argues that the so-called "divine wind" or exogenous external demand boosted Japanese exports. The other view emphasizes the role of supply factors such as productivity gains, materialized after long-fought restructuring efforts during the lost decade. Estimating the firm-level export function allows us to assess the relative importance of these demand and supply factors. Evidence shows that firms' efforts were more important than the divine wind.

Exports --- Japan --- Economic conditions --- International trade --- Exports and Imports --- Infrastructure --- Production and Operations Management --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Innovation --- Research and Development --- Technological Change --- Intellectual Property Rights: General --- Trade: General --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities: General --- International economics --- Macroeconomics --- Total factor productivity --- Export performance --- Productivity --- Transportation --- National accounts --- Industrial productivity --- Saving and investment --- China, People's Republic of

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Global imbalances have been a central theme of the international economic policy debate for much of the last decade, prompted by large and sustained current account deficits in the U.S. and counterpart surpluses in China, Germany, and among many of the oil producers. This paper focuses on the current state of the external imbalance in China, examining the factors underlying the post-2008 drop in China’s current account surplus and analyzing the prospects for the external surplus going forward. The paper finds that China’s current account surplus should remain modest in the coming years. However, despite the fact that China’s medium-term current account is likely to stay below its pre-crisis range, it is too early to conclude that "rebalancing" has been truly achieved in China. While imbalances do not currently seem to be manifesting themselves as a feature of China’s external accounts, the evidence increasingly points to a rising domestic imbalance as growth becomes increasingly dependent on very high levels of investment.

Balance of payments --- Current account balance (International trade) --- International payments, Balance of --- Foreign exchange --- Terms of trade --- Balance of trade --- International liquidity --- Econometric models. --- China --- Economic conditions. --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Trade: General --- International economics --- Currency --- Current account surpluses --- Exports --- Current account --- Real effective exchange rates --- International trade --- Economic policy --- nternational cooperation --- China, People's Republic of --- Nternational cooperation