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We propose a new approach to test the full-information rational expectations hypothesis which can identify whether rejections of the arise from information rigidities. This approach quantifies the economic significance of departures from the and the underlying degree of information rigidity. Applying this approach to U.S. and international data of professional forecasters and other agents yields pervasive evidence consistent with the presence of information rigidities. These results therefore provide a set of stylized facts which can be used to calibrate imperfect information models. Finally, we document evidence of state-dependence in the expectations formation process.
Economics --- Economic forecasting. --- Forecasting --- Economic indicators --- Research. --- Rational expectations (Economic theory) --- Information theory in economics --- Economic forecasting --- Economic cybernetics --- Econometrics --- Expectations, Rational (Economic theory) --- Time and economic reactions --- Uncertainty --- E-books --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Economic Theory --- Industries: General --- Expectations --- Speculations --- Forecasting and Other Model Applications --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Economic theory & philosophy --- Economic Forecasting --- Rational expectations --- Oil prices --- Industrial production --- Economic theory --- Production --- Industries --- United States
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