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Trade policy reforms in recent decades have sharply reduced the distortions that were harming agriculture in de/veloping countries, yet global trade in farm products continues to be far more distorted than trade in nonfarm goods. Those distortions reduce some forms of poverty and inequality but worsen others, so the net effects are unclear without empirical modeling. This paper summarizes a series of new economy-wide global and national empirical studies that focus on the net effects of the remaining distortions to world merchandise trade on poverty and inequality globally and in various developing countries. The global LINKAGE model results suggest that removing those remaining distortions would reduce international inequality, largely by boosting net farm incomes and raising real wages for unskilled workers in developing countries, and would reduce the number of poor people worldwide by 3 percent. The analysis based on the Global Trade Analysis Project model for a sample of 15 countries, and nine stand-alone national case studies, all point to larger reductions in poverty, especially if only the non-poor are subjected to increased income taxation to compensate for the loss of trade tax revenue.

Achieving Shared Growth --- Agriculture --- Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging Markets --- Farm Trade Policy --- Income Inequality --- International Economics and Trade --- Poverty --- Poverty reduction --- Price Distortions --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Trade Policy

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Progress in educational development in the world since 1900 has been slow and uneven between countries. Providing basic education for all children in developing countries has been and remains an unmet challenge of governments and international organizations alike. This is in sharp contrast to recent findings in the economics literature on the catalytic role of human capital for economic growth and social development in general. Using a newly constructed matched data set on education and national accounts in the 1950 to 2010 period, this paper estimates the loss of income and equity associated with not having a faster rate of human capital accumulation, using alternative methodologies and specific country examples. Such loss is projected backward (1900-1950) and forward (2010-2050) using plausible assumptions regarding what countries could have done in the past or may do in the future to accelerate human capital formation. The findings suggest that the welfare loss in terms of per capita income conservatively ranges from about 7 to 10 percent. Improved educational attainment is also shown to have an effect in reducing income inequality.

Access & Equity in Basic Education --- Achieving Shared Growth --- Economic Growth --- Economic Theory & Research --- Education --- Education For All --- Educational Development --- Human Capital Accumulation --- Income Inequality --- Primary Education --- Social Development

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Progress in educational development in the world since 1900 has been slow and uneven between countries. Providing basic education for all children in developing countries has been and remains an unmet challenge of governments and international organizations alike. This is in sharp contrast to recent findings in the economics literature on the catalytic role of human capital for economic growth and social development in general. Using a newly constructed matched data set on education and national accounts in the 1950 to 2010 period, this paper estimates the loss of income and equity associated with not having a faster rate of human capital accumulation, using alternative methodologies and specific country examples. Such loss is projected backward (1900-1950) and forward (2010-2050) using plausible assumptions regarding what countries could have done in the past or may do in the future to accelerate human capital formation. The findings suggest that the welfare loss in terms of per capita income conservatively ranges from about 7 to 10 percent. Improved educational attainment is also shown to have an effect in reducing income inequality.

Access & Equity in Basic Education --- Achieving Shared Growth --- Economic Growth --- Economic Theory & Research --- Education --- Education For All --- Educational Development --- Human Capital Accumulation --- Income Inequality --- Primary Education --- Social Development

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This note raises the IMF’s profile on a number of issues related to inequality, unemployment, governance, etc. It builds on earlier empirical work that examined correlations between growth downbreaks/duration of growth spells and a range of macro/policy/institutional factors. This paper is designed to be more accessible, more policy oriented, and focused squarely on the issue of inequality and the sustainability of growth. It will reference the literature that has gained prominence in the wake of the global crisis, and the possible links between the crisis and rising inequality in countries at the epicenter of the crisis. The analytical findings will also be connected to real world policy narratives in certain countries, to provide texture to the results and enhance policy relevance. The paper will argue that, based on the empirical findings, more equality in the income distribution is associated with longer-lived growth spells. Broad redistributive policies are not necessarily pro-growth, however, as these can have strong disincentive effects. The paper’s policy discussion is appropriately cautious, therefore, offering only tentative ideas, for example, active labor market policies and more attention to human capital investments designed to avoid conflicts between efficiency and equity perspectives.

Macroeconomics --- Social Services and Welfare --- Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Government Policy --- Provision and Effects of Welfare Program --- Social welfare & social services --- Income inequality --- Income distribution --- Personal income --- Poverty reduction strategy --- National accounts --- Poverty --- Income --- Colombia

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There is a growing concern among policy makers and the international development community about the rapid concentration of migrants in the capital city of Ulaanbaatar (UB) and its social, economic, and environmental consequences (UNDP, 2003). These concerns call for a good understanding of the nature of migration in Mongolia and its impacts on the life of migrants. Using the 2007-08 Household Economic and Social Survey of Mongolia, this paper aims to: (a) document the characteristics of recent internal migration in Mongolia; and (b) assess the livelihoods of rural-to-urban migrants in comparison to those staying in rural areas as well as to local urban residents. The analysis in this paper suggests that rural out-migration is negatively correlated with the chance of falling into poverty. For those who did not migrate from rural areas, their poverty incidence was much higher, and their consumption level much lower, than that of rural-to-urban migrants. However, not all urban destinations are equal: there is a large discrepancy in livelihoods between those moving to aimag centers versus those moving the UB. The poverty incidence of rural migrant families moving into aimag centers was 33 percent, whereas 24 percent for those migrant families moving into UB.

Access to Education --- Air Pollution --- Cities --- Clean Water --- Educational Attainment --- Employment Opportunities --- Female Migrants --- Fertility --- Food Consumption --- Gender --- Household Income --- Household Size --- Housing --- Human Migrations & Resettlements --- Income Inequality --- Industrialization --- Living Standards --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Migration --- Mortality --- Natural Disasters --- Peri-Urban Communities --- Poverty Reduction --- Reproductive Health --- Rural Economy --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Savings --- Unemployment --- Urban Areas --- Urban Population --- Urbanization