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"We examine how financial expansion and contraction cycles affect the broader economy through their impact on 8 real economic sectors in a panel of 28 countries over 1960-2005, paying particular attention to large, or sharp, contractions and magnifying and mitigating factors. Overall, the construction sector is the most responsive to financial sector growth, with a number of others such as government, public utilities, and transportation also exhibiting significant sensitivity to lagged financial sector growth. Sharp fluctuations in the financial sector have asymmetric effects, with the majority of real sectors adversely affected by contractions but not helped by expansions. The adverse effects of financial contractions are transmitted almost exclusively by the financial openness channel with foreign reserves mitigating these effects with a sizeable (10 to 15 times greater) impact during sharp financial contractions. Both effects are magnified during particularly large financial contractions (with coefficients on interaction terms 2 to 3 times greater than when all contractions are considered). Consequent upon a financial contraction, the most severe real sector contractions occur in countries with high financial openness, relative predominance of construction, manufacturing, and wholesale and retail sectors, and low international reserves. Finally, we find that abrupt financial contractions are more likely to follow periods of accelerated growth, indicative of "up by the stairs, down by the elevator dynamics.""--National Bureau of Economic Research web site.
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Energy production and supply, as well as sourcing and consumption, are becoming evermore important in a volatile world. In this book, attention is paid to prevalent energy issues from a finance perspective. The topics discussed cover markets, prices, regulations and firms. An international group of authors from both academia and energy practice provides in twelve chapters a state of the art of the energy markets in a finance environment. They do so by discussing the current knowledge and presenting empirical research in this quickly changing and developing field. This book is the first in a planned series on energy at a high scientific level organized by the Centre for Energy and Value Issues (CEVI).
Energy policy -- Europe. --- Energy policy -- Financial aspects. --- Nuclear power -- Finance. --- Energy policy --- Business & Economics --- Finance --- Industries --- Finance - General --- Power resources --- Energy policy. --- Energy and state. --- Macroeconomics. --- Economics. --- Macroeconomics/Monetary Economics//Financial Economics. --- Energy Policy, Economics and Management. --- Economics --- Energy and state --- State and energy --- Industrial policy --- Energy conservation --- Government policy --- Europa.
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Using a consistent dataset and methodology for all eight member countries of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) from 1994 to 2009, this paper provides evidence of the two major channels for real effects of inflation: inflation uncertainty and relative price variability. In line with theory and most evidence for advanced and emerging market economies, higher inflation increases inflation uncertainty and relative price variability in all WAEMU countries. However, the pattern, magnitude and timing of these two channels vary considerably by country. The findings raise several policy issues for future research.
Inflation (Finance) --- Elasticity (Economics) --- Coefficient of elasticity --- Demand elasticity --- Elasticity, Coefficient of --- Elasticity of demand --- Price elasticity of demand --- Demand (Economic theory) --- Economics --- Finance --- Natural rate of unemployment --- Econometric models. --- Exports and Imports --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Financial Aspects of Economic Integration --- Commodity Markets --- International economics --- Consumer price indexes --- Monetary unions --- Commodity price shocks --- Prices --- Price indexes --- Guinea
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Since the Asian crisis, ASEAN5 countries have expended considerable effort in trying to develop their domestic bond markets. Yet today these markets are not much larger, relative to GDP, than they were a decade before. How can we explain this? And does this mean that domestic markets have not, in fact, developed? The paper argues that bond market growth has been held back by a sharp fall in investment rates, which has left firms with little need for bond borrowing. Even so, markets have developed in other ways, to such an extent that substantial amounts of foreign portfolio investment have begun to flow into ASEAN5 bonds. These developments have important ramifications. With the investor base growing and infrastructure investment likely to rise, ASEAN5 bond markets could expand rapidly over the next decade, holding out the prospect that the region could finally achieve "twin engine" financial systems.
Bond market --- Bond markets --- Market, Bond --- Capital market --- Finance: General --- Investments: Bonds --- General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium: Financial Markets --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Financial Aspects of Economic Integration --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Finance --- Investment & securities --- Securities markets --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Bonds --- Corporate bonds --- Sovereign bonds --- Financial markets --- Financial institutions --- Financial services industry --- Malaysia
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This paper assesses financial integration in Asia in terms of risk-sharing benefit versus financial-contagion cost. We construct a new measure of risk sharing based on a term structure model, which allows identification of realized stochastic discount factors. Risk sharing is low in Asia, and varies across time and countries, whereas contagion risks are more significant intra-regionally, and relatively stable over the past decade. An overall tradeoff exists between risk sharing and contagion, but the terms of tradeoffs vary across countries, depending on relative economic fluctuations and inflation differentials. Asia, therefore, can potentially enhance risk sharing without raising contagion risk.
Financial risk management --- Risk management --- Econometric models. --- Asia --- Economic integration. --- Finance: General --- Macroeconomics --- Financial Aspects of Economic Integration --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Finance --- Financial integration --- Financial contagion --- Financial sector development --- Asset prices --- Stock markets --- Financial markets --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Prices --- International finance --- Financial services industry --- Stock exchanges --- Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China
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The paper compares trends in financial integration within Asia with those in industrialized countries and other regional groups. Declines in cross-country dispersion in equity returns and interest rates suggest increased Asian integration, with the process interrupted by crises and global volatility. Cross-border equity and bond holdings have also increased, but Asian countries remain considerably more financially integrated with major countries outside the region than with those within the region. The paper also discusses whether potential benefits of regional financial integration, such as increased risk-sharing and stability of the investor base, have materialized.
Finance --- Regionalism --- Finance: General --- Financial Risk Management --- Investments: General --- Investments: Stocks --- Economic Integration --- Financial Aspects of Economic Integration --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- International Financial Markets --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Financial Crises --- Investment & securities --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Stocks --- Financial crises --- Financial integration --- Stock markets --- Securities --- Financial institutions --- Financial markets --- International finance --- Stock exchanges --- Financial instruments --- Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China
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Staff Discussion Notes showcase the latest policy-related analysis and research being developed by individual IMF staff and are published to elicit comment and to further debate. These papers are generally brief and written in nontechnical language, and so are aimed at a broad audience interested in economic policy issues. This Web-only series replaced Staff Position Notes in January 2011.
Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions --- Financial Aspects of Economic Integration --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Trade: General --- International economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Current account surpluses --- Current account deficits --- Current account balance --- Exchange rates --- Sudden stops --- Balance of payments --- Export performance --- International trade --- Capital movements --- Exports --- United States
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The bulk of this volume deals with the four main aspects of risk management: market risk, credit risk, risk management - in macro-economy as well as within companies. It presents a number of approaches and case studies directed at applying risk management to diverse business environments. Included are traditional market and credit risk management models such as the Black-Scholes Option Pricing Model, the Vasicek Model, Factor models, CAPM models, GARCH models, KMV models and credit scoring models.
Financial crises. --- Financial risk management. --- Risk management -- Financial aspects. --- Financial risk management --- Economics --- Business --- Management --- Business & Economics --- Management Styles & Communication --- Management Theory --- Mathematical models --- Economics. --- Business. --- Mathematical models. --- Trade --- Economic theory --- Political economy --- Operations research. --- Decision making. --- Macroeconomics. --- Business and Management. --- Operation Research/Decision Theory. --- Macroeconomics/Monetary Economics//Financial Economics. --- Commerce --- Industrial management --- Social sciences --- Economic man --- Risk management --- Operations Research/Decision Theory. --- Operational analysis --- Operational research --- Industrial engineering --- Management science --- Research --- System theory --- Deciding --- Decision (Psychology) --- Decision analysis --- Decision processes --- Making decisions --- Management decisions --- Choice (Psychology) --- Problem solving --- Decision making
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The paper makes an assessment of the progress made in developing local debt markets in emerging Asia. Market development has been limited by hurdles confronting borrowers and lenders, current and potential liquidity providers, and insufficient support from government policies and regulations. Besides fostering a credit culture to deepen local debt markets, the issue of critical size can be addressed through an integrated regional market for local currency bonds that provides greater scale, efficiency, and access. With rapid economic growth in Asia, a key challenge is to generate financial assets that can provide the underlying collateral for expanding fixed-income markets, and hence domestic and regional investment opportunities.
Investments, Foreign --- Bond market --- Capital market --- Capital markets --- Market, Capital --- Finance --- Financial institutions --- Loans --- Money market --- Securities --- Crowding out (Economics) --- Efficient market theory --- Bond markets --- Market, Bond --- Finance: General --- Investments: General --- Investments: Bonds --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Financial Aspects of Economic Integration --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Economic Development: Financial Markets --- Saving and Capital Investment --- Corporate Finance and Governance --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Investment & securities --- Securities markets --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Bonds --- Corporate bonds --- Financial markets --- Financial services industry --- Financial instruments --- Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China
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India embarked on reintegration with the world economy in the early 1990s. At first, a certain limited opening took place emphasising equity flows by certain kinds of foreign investors. This opening has had myriad interesting implications in terms of both microeconomics and macroeconomics. A dynamic process of change in the economy and in economic policy then came about, with a co-evolution between the system of capital controls, macroeconomic policy, and the internationalisation of firms including the emergence of Indian multinationals.Through this process, de facto openness has risen sharply. De facto openness has implied a loss of monetary policy autonomy when exchange rate pegging was attempted. The exchange rate regime has evolved towards greater flexibility.
Globalization --- Capital movements --- Monetary policy --- International business enterprises --- Capital flight --- Capital flows --- Capital inflow --- Capital outflow --- Flight of capital --- Flow of capital --- Movements of capital --- Balance of payments --- Foreign exchange --- International finance --- Economic aspects --- Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Economic Integration --- Multinational Firms --- International Business --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Financial Aspects of Economic Integration --- International Financial Markets --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- International economics --- Finance --- Currency --- Capital account --- Capital controls --- Foreign direct investment --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Stock markets --- Financial markets --- Investments, Foreign --- Stock exchanges --- India
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