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Architecture --- Sculpture --- trade [general function] --- marble workers --- marble [rock] --- anno 1600-1699 --- anno 1700-1799 --- Italy

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Using a comprehensive global dataset, we outline stylized facts characterizing relationships between crude oil prices and macroeconomic developments across the world. Approaching the data from several angles, we find that the impact of higher oil prices on oil-importing economies is generally small: a 25 percent increase in oil prices typically causes GDP to fall by about half of one percent or less. While cross-country differences in impact are found to depend mainly on the relative size of oil imports, we also show that oil price shocks are not always costly for oil-importing countries: although higher oil prices increase the import bill, there are partly offsetting increases in external receipts. We provide a small open economy model illustrating the main transmission channels of oil shocks, and show how the recycling of petrodollars may mitigate the impact.

Petroleum products --- Mazut --- Petroleum --- Hydraulic fluids --- Prices --- Econometric models. --- Refining --- Investments: Energy --- Exports and Imports --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- International Economics: General --- International Finance: General --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Energy: General --- Trade: General --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Investment & securities --- International economics --- Oil prices --- Oil --- Imports --- Exports --- Commodities --- International trade --- Petroleum industry and trade --- United States

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The paper assesses the impact of fiscal spillovers on growth in the context of a coordinated exit from crisis management policies. We find that despite potentially sizeable domestic effects from consolidation, aggregate negative spillovers to other countries are likely to be contained in 2011-2012 unless fiscal multipliers and/or imports elasticities are very large. Small and open European economies, however, will be substantially affected in any case. In contrast, the coordinated exit from fiscal stimulus will have limited direct effect on European peripheral countries since they are relatively closed, with the notable exception of Ireland.

Fiscal policy --- Economic development --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Economic policy --- Finance, Public --- Econometric models. --- Government policy --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Externalities --- Fiscal Policy --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Trade: General --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- Spillovers --- Expenditure --- Imports --- Fiscal consolidation --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- International trade --- International finance --- Expenditures, Public --- Germany

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This study considers the role of export diversification in determining trade outcomes during the global financial crisis. The impact of export diversification (or concentration) is measured by assessing three different dimensions of specialization. First, concentration by geographic destination is considered; that is, whether the bulk of exports from a country go to many or few trading partners. Second, industry/sectoral concentration is considered; that is, whether a country’s exports are scattered across many industries and sectors, or concentrated in just a few. Third, product concentration is considered; that is, whether countries produce many products within their export sectors or just a few. The workhorse gravity trade model is adapted with trade diversification as an additional trade cost, and the model solution is empirically tested on a dataset containing over 500 thousand observations for Latin America. Industry and product concentration are found to significantly affect the resilience of Latin American countries’ trade during the global financial crisis - increasing the diversity of both export sectors and export products within sectors by one standard deviation reduces the quarterly decline in exports by approximately 4.7 percent. Diversifying exports across many different trading partners is not found to significantly affect outcomes.

Diversification in industry. --- Industrial diversification --- Product diversification --- Input-output analysis --- Barriers to entry (Industrial organization) --- Multiproduct firms --- Investments: Commodities --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Trade: General --- Commodity Markets --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- International economics --- Investment & securities --- Exports --- Export diversification --- Plurilateral trade --- Commodity prices --- Commodities --- International trade --- Prices --- Commercial products --- Brazil

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Major mining commodity prices are inherently volatile and cyclical. High levels of investment in China have been a key driver in the strong world demand for minerals and metals over the past decade. The urbanization and industrialization of China has been an important factor behind the increase in domestic demand and high investment growth, while its export sector is also an important source of growth and plays a critical role as a catalyst. Activity in infrastructure, construction, real estate, and automobile manufacturing all contribute to the strong demand for minerals. Over the next five years, the Chinese demand is expected to remain strong, supported by investment and gradually rising consumption rates. However, in the second part of this decade economic growth in China could slow down. For Latin American countries, export receipts should remain strong over the next five years and beyond, given the continued strong demand from China.

Prices --- Mineral industries --- Economic development --- Extractive industries --- Extractive industry --- Metal industries --- Mines and mining --- Mining --- Mining industry --- Mining industry and finance --- Industries --- Investments: Commodities --- Investments: Metals --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Trade: General --- Commodity Markets --- Metals and Metal Products --- Cement --- Glass --- Ceramics --- Investment & securities --- International economics --- Consumption --- Commodities --- Copper --- Imports --- Exports --- Economics --- Commercial products --- China, People's Republic of