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This paper investigates the causes of extreme fluctuations in commodity prices from 1990 to 2010. Analyzing two very distinct commodities-crude oil and fine wine, we find that macroeconomic factors are the main determinants of commodity prices. Although supply constraints have the expected effect, aggregate demand growth is the key factor. The empirical results show that while advanced economies account for more than half of global consumption, emerging economies make up the bulk of the incremental change in demand, thereby having a greater weight in commodity price formation. The results also show that the shift in the composition of aggregate commodity demand is a recent phenomenon.
Petroleum products --- Wine --- Petroleum --- Petroleum industry and trade --- Prices. --- Prices --- Investments: Energy --- Finance: General --- Macroeconomics --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation: Other --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Energy: General --- Commodity Markets --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Portfolio Choice --- Investment Decisions --- Investment & securities --- Finance --- Oil --- Commodity prices --- Oil prices --- Emerging and frontier financial markets --- Excess liquidity --- Commodities --- Financial markets --- Asset and liability management --- Financial services industry --- Liquidity --- Economics --- United States
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We show that US natural gas prices have decoupled from oil prices following substantial institutional and technological changes. We then examine how this interrelationship has evolved in Europe using data for Algeria, one of Europe’s key gas suppliers. Taking into account total gas exports and cyclical conditions in partner countries, we find that gas prices remain linked to oil prices, though the nexus has loosened. Both high oil prices and a modest industrial recovery in partner countries have kept gas exports at low levels in recent years, suggesting changing market forces. The paper then shows how such shifts can have important macroeconomic implications for a big gas exporter such as Algeria.
Natural gas --- Petroleum products --- Prices --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: Energy --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- State Space Models --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- International Finance Forecasting and Simulation --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Hydrocarbon Resources --- Trade: General --- Petroleum, oil & gas industries --- International economics --- Fuel prices --- Oil prices --- Natural gas sector --- Exports --- Export prices --- Economic sectors --- International trade --- Gas industry --- Algeria
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This paper describes the current state of the Macedonian electricity sector. It looks at ongoing structural changes, driven by the gradual adoption of the EU acquis on energy, and comes up with estimates for electricity subsidies. It concludes by discussing the longer term outlook and sketching policy options.
Electric industries --- Energy policy --- Energy and state --- Power resources --- State and energy --- Industrial policy --- Energy conservation --- Industries --- Government policy --- Investments: Energy --- Exports and Imports --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Taxation --- Government Policy --- Provision and Effects of Welfare Program --- Electric Utilities --- Industry Studies: Utilities and Transportation: Government Policy --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Energy: Government Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Trade: General --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Investment & securities --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Electricity --- Import prices --- Imports --- Tariffs --- Commodities --- Prices --- International trade --- Taxes --- Electric utilities --- Tariff --- North Macedonia, Republic of
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The Second Review under the policy support instrument (PSI) highlights that Senegal’s economy has remained resilient to the global economic turmoil. In line with the authorities’ new Document of Economic and Social Policies for 2011–15, the 2012 economic program supported under the PSI will target critical bottlenecks in energy and infrastructure, which hinder growth and poverty reduction. The fiscal program will allow the authorities to scale up infrastructure investment, but requires keeping a prudent stance on the rest of the budget.
Economic indicators -- Senegal. --- International monetary fund -- Senegal. --- Senegal -- Economic conditions. --- Senegal -- Economic policy. --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Statistics --- Industries: Energy --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology --- Computer Programs: Other --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- General Aggregative Models: General --- Public finance & taxation --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Petroleum, oil & gas industries --- Public financial management (PFM) --- Government debt management --- Public debt --- Government finance statistics --- Expenditure --- Economic and financial statistics --- National accounts --- Finance, Public --- Debts, Public --- Finance --- Expenditures, Public --- Energy industries --- National income --- Senegal
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This paper investigates the empirical characteristics of business cycles and the extent of cyclical comovement in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, using various measures of synchronization for non-hydrocarbon GDP and constituents of aggregate demand during the period 1990-2010. By applying the Christiano-Fitzgerald asymmetric band-pass filter and a mean corrected concordance index, the paper identifies the degree of non-hydrocarbon business cycle synchronization?one of the main prerequisites for countries considering to establish a monetary union. The empirical results show low and heterogeneous synchronization in non-hydrocarbon business cycles across the GCC economies, and a decline in the degree of synchronicity in the 2000s, if Kuwait is excluded from the sample, partly because of divergent fiscal policies.
Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods --- Single Equation Models --- Single Variables: Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Fiscal Policy --- Economic Integration --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- International Policy Coordination and Transmission --- Resource Booms --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Financial Aspects of Economic Integration --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: Infrastructures --- Other Public Investment and Capital Stock --- Economic growth --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Business cycles --- Monetary unions --- Private consumption --- Government consumption --- Public investment spending --- Economic integration --- National accounts --- Expenditure --- Consumption --- Economics --- Public investments --- Saudi Arabia
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Senegal's economic recovery is continuing and has been largely unaffected by the political crisis in Côte d’Ivoire. Policy discussions focused on the economic implications of two new developments since the program was approved in December 2010. Fiscal policy faces a difficult trade-off between additional priority expenditure and the need to preserve debt sustainability. The sustainability of Senegal’s external public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) debt appears vulnerable to rollover risks. This highlights the need for prudent debt management by Senegal, as it seeks to gain greater access to external resources.
Economic indicators --- Debts, Public --- Debts, External --- Debts, Foreign --- Debts, International --- External debts --- Foreign debts --- International debts --- Debt --- International finance --- Investments, Foreign --- Debts, Government --- Government debts --- National debts --- Public debt --- Public debts --- Sovereign debt --- Bonds --- Deficit financing --- Business indicators --- Indicators, Business --- Indicators, Economic --- Leading indicators --- Economic history --- Quality of life --- Economic forecasting --- Index numbers (Economics) --- Social indicators --- Senegal --- Economic conditions. --- Economic policy. --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Statistics --- Industries: Energy --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Energy and the Macroeconomy --- Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology --- Computer Programs: Other --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- Petroleum, oil & gas industries --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Government debt management --- Energy sector --- Public financial management (PFM) --- External debt --- Economic sectors --- Energy industries --- Finance, Public --- Finance
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