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During the late 1980s and the 1990s, most countries in Sub-Saharan Africa implemented agricultural policy reforms, along with national political and economic reforms. The agricultural reforms focused on opening up processing and marketing activities to increased competition and eliminating export taxes and restrictions to improve producer incentives. In eight of nine country/commodity case studies analyzed in this paper, output responded positively in the short run to the reforms. In many cases, however, the initial supply response was not sustained in the face of subsequent shocks. The studies suggest that stakeholder consensus on the distribution of sector-specific rents is a key variable affecting the sustainability of supply responses. Agricultural sector reforms lead to large changes in income distribution. The greater the acceptance of the distribution of rents following the reforms, the better sectors are able to accommodate subsequent shocks. In cases where the initial consensus on the distribution of rents is weak, shocks lead to reform reversals in some cases or an inability to design necessary support institutions in others. The diversity in outcomes across similar products and countries suggests it is possible to achieve sector and local level results that differ from national ones.

Agriculture --- Commodity markets --- Crops & Crop Management Systems --- Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging Markets --- International Economics & Trade --- Labor Policies --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Markets and Market Access --- Policy reform --- Political economy --- Poverty Reduction --- Supply response --- Sub-Saharan Africa

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The April 2011 issue of the Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific focuses on the policy challenges of managing the next phase of growth after Asia's recovery from the global crisis. The analytical chapters discuss how capital flows to the region may affect the monetary policy transmission mechanism and the role of macroprudential measures in this context, the implications of the Asian supply chain for rebalancing growth across the region, and the policy challenges for Asian low-income and Pacific Island countries. Economic recovery in Asia as a whole has been rapid (8.3 percent in 2010) and fueled by both exports and domestic demand. Looking ahead, growth is expected to continue at a more moderate but also more sustainable pace in 2011 and 2012, led by China and India. Meanwhile, new risks to the outlook have emerged. The full human cost and impact on infrastructure of the mid-March earthquake and tsunami in Japan remain to be determined. The steady response of the Japanese government and people has helped to contain the effects of the disaster on production, but a risk remains of prolonged disruptions in production that could spill over to other Asian economies in the regional supply chain. Moreover, tensions in the Middle East and North Africa and related risk of further oil price spikes could disrupt global growth and affect Asian exports. Finally, pockets of overheating have emerged in Asia, as core inflation and credit growth have accelerated in several Asian economies. The need to tighten macroeconomic policy stances has become more pressing than it was six months ago.

Business & Economics --- Economic History --- Economic forecasting --- Economics --- Forecasting --- Economic indicators --- Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Trade: General --- Commodity Markets --- International economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Finance --- Banking --- Capital inflows --- Exports --- Capital flows --- Food prices --- Balance of payments --- Prices --- International trade --- Capital movements --- China, People's Republic of

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Food prices are generally excluded from measures of inflation most closely watched by policymakers due either to their transitory nature or their higher volatility. However, in lower income countries, food price inflation is not only more volatile but also on average higher than nonfood inflation. Food inflation is also in many cases more persistent than nonfood inflation, and shocks in many countries are propagated strongly into nonfood inflation. Under these conditions, and particularly given high global commodity price inflation in recent years, a policy focus on measures of core inflation that exclude food prices can misspecify inflation, leading to higher inflationary expectations, a downward bias to forecasts of future inflation and lags in policy responses. In constructing measures of core inflation, policymakers should therefore not assume that excluding food price inflation will provide a clearer picture of underlying inflation trends than headline inflation.

Food prices. --- Inflation (Finance) --- Finance --- Natural rate of unemployment --- Food --- Agricultural prices --- Food industry and trade --- Prices --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Commodity Markets --- Food prices --- Commodity price shocks --- Consumer price indexes --- Inflation persistence --- Price indexes --- United States

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Major mining commodity prices are inherently volatile and cyclical. High levels of investment in China have been a key driver in the strong world demand for minerals and metals over the past decade. The urbanization and industrialization of China has been an important factor behind the increase in domestic demand and high investment growth, while its export sector is also an important source of growth and plays a critical role as a catalyst. Activity in infrastructure, construction, real estate, and automobile manufacturing all contribute to the strong demand for minerals. Over the next five years, the Chinese demand is expected to remain strong, supported by investment and gradually rising consumption rates. However, in the second part of this decade economic growth in China could slow down. For Latin American countries, export receipts should remain strong over the next five years and beyond, given the continued strong demand from China.

Prices --- Mineral industries --- Economic development --- Extractive industries --- Extractive industry --- Metal industries --- Mines and mining --- Mining --- Mining industry --- Mining industry and finance --- Industries --- Investments: Commodities --- Investments: Metals --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Trade: General --- Commodity Markets --- Metals and Metal Products --- Cement --- Glass --- Ceramics --- Investment & securities --- International economics --- Consumption --- Commodities --- Copper --- Imports --- Exports --- Economics --- Commercial products --- China, People's Republic of

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The note delves on the U.S. housing market outlook, the potential benefits of mitigating distressed sales household deleveraging, and the recovery. Policies to facilitate labor market adjustment to reduce the large employment volatility without affecting efficient labor allocation could prevent problems. U.S. firms are hoarding money but it is likely to be spent to boost firms’ capital expenditure, rather than kept as precautionary balances. The note discusses commodity price shocks affecting Treasury inflation protected securities (TIPS), budget institutions for federal fiscal consolidation, and mortgage delinquencies in the United States.

Housing --- Labor market --- Mortgage loans --- Prices --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Real Estate --- Industries: Financial Services --- Public Finance --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Housing Supply and Markets --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Demand for Money --- Commodity Markets --- Finance --- Property & real estate --- Labour --- income economics --- Monetary economics --- Housing prices --- Demand for money --- Loans --- Financial institutions --- Money --- United States