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This paper presents an alternative method for calculating debt targets using the debt intolerance literature of Reinhart, Rogoff, and Savastano (2003) and Reinhart and Rogoff (2009). The methodology presented improves on the previous papers by using a dynamic panel approach, correcting for endogeneity in the regressors and basing the calculation of debt targets on credit ratings, a more objective criteria. In addition the study uses a new data base on general government debt covering 120 countries over 21 years. The paper suggests a ranking of Central America, Panama, and Dominican Republic (CAPDR) countries in terms of debt intolerance - an index which could be used to further investigate the main components of debt intolerance.
Debts, External --- Credit ratings --- Financial crises --- Crashes, Financial --- Crises, Financial --- Financial crashes --- Financial panics --- Panics (Finance) --- Stock exchange crashes --- Stock market panics --- Crises --- Commercial ratings --- Credit checks --- Credit guides --- Credit investigations --- Credit reports --- Ratings, Credit --- Debts, Foreign --- Debts, International --- External debts --- Foreign debts --- International debts --- Debt --- International finance --- Investments, Foreign --- Econometric models. --- Econometrics --- Exports and Imports --- Inflation --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Public Finance --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- International Finance: General --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Estimation --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Fiscal Policy --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- Monetary economics --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Macroeconomics --- Public debt --- External debt --- Estimation techniques --- Money --- Fiscal policy --- Econometric analysis --- Debts, Public --- Econometric models --- Prices --- Dominican Republic
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Central America experienced moderate growth during the last decade, including in the years leading up to the global financial crisis, but the rate of convergence toward advanced country income levels has still been slow. Moreover, forecasts imply that these trends will continue. What can be done to spur higher growth in Central America? We bring new data to bear on this question-version 7.0 of the Penn World Table and a new IMF database on structural reforms. Our cross-country panel regression of economic growth using System GMM captures the importance to growth of conditional convergence, factor accumulation, and macro policies. In addition, structural efficiency is a significant factor in explaining growth performance. We construct a broad index of efficiency and find that increasing the degree of structural efficiency by one standard deviation raises growth by ½ percent. This implies that Central American countries could significantly increase their long-run growth rates by increasing the flexibility of markets and improving the quality of regulation.
Central America--Economic policy. --- Economic development--Econometric models. --- Economic policy. --- Economic nationalism --- Economic planning --- National planning --- State planning --- Economics --- Planning --- National security --- Social policy --- Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models: Models with Panel Data --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development --- Economic Development: Financial Markets --- Saving and Capital Investment --- Corporate Finance and Governance --- Institutions and Growth --- Measurement of Economic Growth --- Aggregate Productivity --- Cross-Country Output Convergence --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Labour --- income economics --- Finance --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Human capital --- Structural reforms --- Personal income --- Commodity markets --- Purchasing power parity --- Macrostructural analysis --- National accounts --- Financial markets --- Income --- Commodity exchanges --- El Salvador --- Economic development --- Econometric models. --- Central America --- Income economics
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