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2011 (3)

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Trade And Industrialisation After Globalisation’s 2nd Unbundling : How Building And Joining A Supply Chain Are Different And Why It Matters
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Year: 2011 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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Abstract

Revolutionary transformations of industry and trade occurred from 1985 to the late-1990s – the regionalisation of supply chains. Before 1985, successful industrialisation meant building a domestic supply chain. Today, industrialisers join supply chains and grow rapidly because offshored production brings elements that took Korea and Taiwan decades to develop domestically. These changes have not been fully reflected in “high development theory” – a lacuna that may lead to misinterpretation of data and inattention to important policy questions.


Digital
Gravity Chains : Estimating Bilateral Trade Flows When Parts And Components Trade Is Important
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Year: 2011 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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Abstract

Trade is measured on a gross sales basis while GDP is measured on a net sales basis, i.e. value added. The rapid internationalisation of production in the last two decades has meant that gross trade flows are increasingly unrepresentative of the value added flows. This fact has important implications for the estimation of the gravity equation. We present empirical evidence that the standard gravity equation performs poorly by some measures when it is applied to bilateral flows where parts and components trade is important. We also provide a simple theoretical foundation for a modified gravity equation that is suited to explaining trade where international supply chains are important.


Digital
International Trade, Offshoring and Heterogeneous Firms
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Year: 2011 Publisher: Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research

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Recent trade models determine the equilibrium distribution of firm-level efficiency endogenously and show that freer trade shifts the distribution towards higher average productivity due to entry and exit of firms. These models ignore the possibility that freer trade also alters the firm-size distribution via international firm migration (offshoring); firms must, by assumption, produce in their 'birth nation.' We show that when firms are allowed to switch locations, new productivity effects arise. Freer trade induces the most efficient small-nation firms to move to the large nation. The big country gets an 'extra helping' of the most efficient firms while the small nation's firm-size distribution is truncated on both ends. This reinforces the big-nation productivity gain while reducing or even reversing the small-nation productivity gain. The small nation is nevertheless better off allowing firm migration.

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