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Deteriorating public finances around the world raise doubts about countries' abilities to bail out their largest banks. For an international sample of banks, this paper investigates the impact of government indebtedness and deficits on bank stock prices and credit default swap spreads. Overall, bank stock prices reflect a negative capitalization of government debt and they respond negatively to deficits. The authors present evidence that in 2008 systemically large banks saw a reduction in their market valuation in countries running large fiscal deficits. Furthermore, the change in bank credit default swap spreads in 2008 relative to 2007 reflects countries' deterioration of public deficits. The results of the analysis suggest that some systemically important banks can increase their value by downsizing or splitting up, as they have become too big to save, potentially reversing the trend to ever larger banks. The paper also documents that a smaller proportion of banks are systemically important - relative to gross domestic product - in 2008 than in the two previous years, which could reflect private incentives to downsize.
Access to Finance --- Bank failures --- Bank mergers --- Bank risk --- Bank size --- Banking crises --- Banking system --- Banking systems --- Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress --- Banks --- Banks & Banking Reform --- Capitalization --- CDS --- Debt --- Debt Markets --- Deficits --- Deposit insurance --- Economic Theory & Research --- European central bank --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial safety nets --- Fiscal deficits --- Government finance --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Profitability --- Small banks --- Taxation
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Attempts to raise a significant percentage of gross domestic product in revenue from a broad-based financial transactions tax are likely to fail both by raising much less revenue than expected and by generating far-reaching changes in economic behavior. Although the side-effects would include a sizable restructuring of financial sector activity, this would not occur in ways corrective of the particular forms of financial overtrading that were most conspicuous in contributing to the crisis.
Banking assets --- Banks & Banking Reform --- Currency --- Debt Markets --- Derivative --- Derivative transactions --- Economic efficiency --- Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging Markets --- Equities --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial assets --- Financial system --- Fiscal deficits --- Government policy --- Gross domestic product --- International bank --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Market failures --- Private Sector Development --- Reserve --- Reserve requirements --- Securities --- Securities transactions --- Tax --- Taxation & Subsidies --- Transaction --- Transparency
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Attempts to raise a significant percentage of gross domestic product in revenue from a broad-based financial transactions tax are likely to fail both by raising much less revenue than expected and by generating far-reaching changes in economic behavior. Although the side-effects would include a sizable restructuring of financial sector activity, this would not occur in ways corrective of the particular forms of financial overtrading that were most conspicuous in contributing to the crisis.
Banking assets --- Banks & Banking Reform --- Currency --- Debt Markets --- Derivative --- Derivative transactions --- Economic efficiency --- Economic Theory & Research --- Emerging Markets --- Equities --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial assets --- Financial system --- Fiscal deficits --- Government policy --- Gross domestic product --- International bank --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Market failures --- Private Sector Development --- Reserve --- Reserve requirements --- Securities --- Securities transactions --- Tax --- Taxation & Subsidies --- Transaction --- Transparency
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Deteriorating public finances around the world raise doubts about countries' abilities to bail out their largest banks. For an international sample of banks, this paper investigates the impact of government indebtedness and deficits on bank stock prices and credit default swap spreads. Overall, bank stock prices reflect a negative capitalization of government debt and they respond negatively to deficits. The authors present evidence that in 2008 systemically large banks saw a reduction in their market valuation in countries running large fiscal deficits. Furthermore, the change in bank credit default swap spreads in 2008 relative to 2007 reflects countries' deterioration of public deficits. The results of the analysis suggest that some systemically important banks can increase their value by downsizing or splitting up, as they have become too big to save, potentially reversing the trend to ever larger banks. The paper also documents that a smaller proportion of banks are systemically important - relative to gross domestic product - in 2008 than in the two previous years, which could reflect private incentives to downsize.
Access to Finance --- Bank failures --- Bank mergers --- Bank risk --- Bank size --- Banking crises --- Banking system --- Banking systems --- Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress --- Banks --- Banks & Banking Reform --- Capitalization --- CDS --- Debt --- Debt Markets --- Deficits --- Deposit insurance --- Economic Theory & Research --- European central bank --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Financial safety nets --- Fiscal deficits --- Government finance --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Profitability --- Small banks --- Taxation
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This paper reviews the international experience of developed and underdeveloped economies in reducing the pro-cyclicality and deficit bias of fiscal policies and promoting the adoption of effective countercyclical fiscal policy actions. The paper draws lessons and best international practices for building fiscal policy frameworks and adopting feasible countercyclical fiscal policies in Latin America. The authors review the main arguments regarding the proper role and limitations of countercyclical fiscal policies, and offer an evaluation of the international evidence demonstrating the typical pro-cyclicality and deficit bias of fiscal policy. The paper analyzes the international experience with fiscal frameworks, budgetary rules, and other mechanisms for implementing countercyclical fiscal policies, and describes the necessary preconditions for building a stable and effective countercyclical fiscal policy framework in Latin America. The authors review the international best practices for establishing a reliable and effective countercyclical fiscal policy in the region.
Adjustment programs --- Debt Markets --- Discretionary fiscal policy --- Economic Stabilization --- Exchange rate --- External shocks --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- Fiscal Adjustment --- Fiscal adjustment --- Fiscal austerity --- Fiscal balance --- Fiscal deficits --- Fiscal discipline --- Fiscal policies --- Fiscal policy --- Fiscal stimulus --- Fiscal sustainability --- Foreign borrowing --- Foreign investors --- International monetary fund --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Monetary policy --- Public debt --- Public Sector Development --- Public Sector Expenditure Policy --- Public spending --- Real interest rates --- Subnational Economic Development
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Recent studies show that almost all industrial countries have experienced dramatic decreases in both fertility and mortality rates. This situation has led to aging societies with economies that suffer from both a decline in the working population and a rise in fiscal deficits linked to increased government spending. East Asia exemplifies these trends, and this volume offers an in-depth look at how long-term demographic transitions have taken shape there and how they have affected the economy in the region. The Economic Consequences of Demographic Change in East Asia assembles a group of experts to explore such topics as comparative demographic change, population aging, the rising cost of health care, and specific policy concerns in individual countries. The volume provides an overview of economic growth in East Asia as well as more specific studies on Japan, Korea, China, and Hong Kong. Offering important insights into the causes and consequences of this transition, this book will benefit students, researchers, and policy makers focused on East Asia as well as anyone concerned with similar trends elsewhere in the world.
Demographic transition - Economic aspects - East Asia. --- Demographic transition -- Economic aspects -- East Asia -- Congresses. --- East Asia - Population - Economic aspects. --- East Asia -- Population -- Economic aspects -- Congresses. --- Economic development - East Asia. --- Economic development -- East Asia -- Congresses. --- Population aging - Economic aspects - East Asia. --- Population aging -- Economic aspects -- East Asia -- Congresses. --- Demographic transition --- Economic development --- Population aging --- Business & Economics --- Demography --- Economic aspects --- East Asia --- Population --- Transition, Demographic --- Vital revolution (Demography) --- Aging of population --- Aging population --- Aging society --- Demographic aging --- Graying (Demography) --- Greying (Demography) --- Development, Economic --- Economic growth --- Growth, Economic --- Asia, East --- Asia, Eastern --- East (Far East) --- Eastern Asia --- Far East --- Vital statistics --- Age distribution (Demography) --- Economic policy --- Economics --- Statics and dynamics (Social sciences) --- Development economics --- Resource curse --- Orient --- E-books --- J4330 --- J4300.90 --- Japan: Economy and industry -- demography, population theory --- Japan: Economy and industry -- history -- postwar Shōwa (1945- ), Heisei period (1989- ), contemporary --- Conferences - Meetings --- K9308 --- K9400.80 --- Korea: Social sciences, society -- demography, population theory --- Korea: Economy and industry -- history -- modern period, postwar period (1945- ) --- east asia, economics, industrial countries, fertility, mortality, aging, labor, workforce, fiscal deficits, government spending, japan, korea, china, hong kong, health care, demographic change, pacific rim, economic growth, human capital accumulation, pension, retirement, personal savings, nonfiction, economy, finance, public education, security, intergenerational transfers, famine, men, masculinity, childless families, gender, family, household.
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