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2010 (4)

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Book
Input-output economics: theory and applications: featuring Asian economies
Author:
ISBN: 9789812833662 Year: 2010 Publisher: Singapore World Scientific


Book
Still Minding the Gap—Inflation Dynamics during Episodes of Persistent Large Output Gaps
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462397107 1455286885 1282846612 9786612846618 1455202231 Year: 2010 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper studies inflation dynamics during 25 historical episodes in advanced economies where output remained well below potential for an extended period. We find that such episodes generally brought about significant disinflation, underpinned by weak labor markets, slowing wage growth, and, in many cases, falling oil prices. Indeed, inflation declined by about the same fraction of the initial inflation rate across episodes. That said, disinflation has tended to taper off at very low positive inflation rates, arguably reflecting downward nominal rigidities and well-anchored inflation expectations. Temporary inflation increases during episodes were, in turn, systematically related to currency depreciation or higher oil prices. Overall, the historical patterns suggest little upside inflation risk in advanced economies facing the prospect of persistent large output gaps.


Book
Estimates of the Output Gap in Armenia with Applications to Monetary and Fiscal Policy.
Author:
ISBN: 1462364810 1455229393 1282847414 9786612847417 1455205273 Year: 2010 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper employs several econometric techniques to estimate the Armenian output gap. The findings indicate that the output gap is significantly positive in 2007 and 2008 and decreased dramatically in 2009. The paper uses these results to estimate a New Keynesian Phillips curve for Armenia, suggesting a significant role of the output gap and inflation expectations in determining current inflation. Finally, the underlying fiscal stance over the period 2000-09 is assessed by estimating the cyclically-adjusted fiscal balance. Most of Armenia’s fiscal deficit is found to be structural. Fiscal policy, while providing counter-cyclical support in 2009, has been largely pro-cyclical in the past.

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