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The paper constructs a new output gap measure for Vietnam by applying Bayesian methods to a two-equation AS-AD model, while treating the output gap as an unobservable series to be estimated together with other parameters. Model coefficients are easily interpretable, and the output gap series is consistent with a broader analysis of economic developments. Output gaps obtained from the HP detrending are subject to larger revisions than series obtained from a suitably adjusted model, and may be misleading compared to the model-based measure.

Industrial productivity --- Inflation (Finance) --- Statistical methods. --- Finance --- Natural rate of unemployment --- Productivity, Industrial --- TFP (Total factor productivity) --- Total factor productivity --- Industrial efficiency --- Production (Economic theory) --- Banks and Banking --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Production and Operations Management --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Model Construction and Estimation --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Macroeconomics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Output gap --- Potential output --- Real interest rates --- Real exchange rates --- Production --- Prices --- Financial services --- Economic theory --- Interest rates --- Vietnam