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Business cycles -- Kazakhstan. --- Kazakhstan -- Economic policy. --- Business cycles --- Economic Theory --- Business & Economics --- Kazakhstan --- Economic policy. --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Cycles
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Modern business cycle theory and growth theory uses stochastic dynamic general equilibrium models. In order to solve these models, economists need to use many mathematical tools. This book presents various methods in order to compute the dynamics of general equilibrium models. In part I, the representative-agent stochastic growth model is solved with the help of value function iteration, linear and linear quadratic approximation methods, parameterised expectations and projection methods. In order to apply these methods, fundamentals from numerical analysis are reviewed in detail. In part II, the authors discuss methods in order to solve heterogeneous-agent economies. This part of the book also serves as an introduction to the modern theory of distribution economics. Applications include the dynamics of the income distribution over the business cycle or the demographic transition in a large-scale overlapping generations model. In an accompanying home page to this book, computer codes to all applications can be downloaded. "This is perhaps the perfect book to learn how to solve quantitative macroeconomics models. Its balance between theory, choice of models, computational insights and use of examples make it an excellent teaching tool. One of the very few books a professional macroeconomist should have: I always learn something important when I consult it." José-Víctor Ríos Rull, University of Minnesota "This book not only does an excellent job in explaining the existing tools, but it also teaches the reader on how to write her/his own programs and it provides the reader with the tools to help advance the state of the art of dynamic macroeconomics. " Wouter J. Den Haan, University of Amsterdam "This is an excellent book for economists who do quantitative research. It will be an invaluable teaching tool for graduate macroeconomic courses." Ayse Imrohoroglu, University of Southern California " ¦ provides the reader with exactly the necessary computational tools to solve the dynamic general equilibrium models macroeconomists care about. It is therefore the perfect complement to Stokey, Lucas and Prescott's and Sargent and Ljungqvist's theoretical treatment of modern macroeconomics." Dirk Krueger, University of Pennsylvania
Equilibrium (Economics) --- Economics, Mathematical --- Endogenous growth (Economics) --- Macroeconomics --- Mathematical models --- -Business cycles --- -339.5 --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Cycles --- Financial crises --- Equilibrium (Economics) - Mathematical models
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Business cycles. --- Economic forecasting. --- Recessions. --- Recessions --- Business cycles --- Economic forecasting --- Business & Economics --- Economic Theory --- Economics --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Forecasting --- Economic indicators --- Cycles --- Depressions
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This title looks at how the chip industry has responded to a series of crises over the past 25 years, often reinventing itself and shifting the basis for a global competitive advantage.
BUSINESS & ECONOMICS --- Economics / General --- Semiconductor industry --- Business cycles --- Business & Economics --- Industries --- Management --- Business cycles. --- Management. --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Cycles --- Electronic industries --- BUSINESS/Business Technology --- BUSINESS/Innovation
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Empirical evidence - including the current global crisis - suggests that shocks from advanced countries often have a disproportionate effect on developing economies. Can this account for the fact that aggregate fluctuations are larger and more persistent in the latter than in the former economies? And what are the mechanisms at play? This paper addresses these questions using a model of an industrial and a developing economy trading goods and assets, with (i) a product cycle shaping the range of intermediate goods used to produce new capital in each country, and (ii) investment adjustment costs in the developing economy. Innovation by the advanced economy results in new intermediate goods, at first produced at home, and eventually transferred to the developing economy through direct investment. The pace of innovation and technology transfer is driven by profitability. This process of technology diffusion creates a medium-term connection between both economies, over and above the short-term link through trade. Calibration of the model to match Mexico-United States trade and foreign direct investment flows shows that this mechanism can explain why shocks to the United States economy have a larger effect on Mexico than on the United States itself, and hence why Mexico shows higher volatility than the United States; why business cycles in the United States lead to medium-term fluctuations in Mexico; and why consumption is not less volatile than output in Mexico.
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This paper evaluates what type of models can account for the recent episodes of output drops in Latin America. I develop an open economy version of the business cycle accounting methodology (Chari, Kehoe, and McGrattan, 2007) in which output fluctuations are decomposed into four sources: total factor productivity (TFP), a labor wedge, a capital wedge, and a bond wedge. The paper shows that the most promising models are the ones that induce fluctuations of TFP and the labor wedge. On the other hand, models of fnancial frictions that translate into a bond or capital wedge are not successful in explaining output drops in Latin America. The paper also discusses the implications of these results for policy analysis using alternative DSGE models.
Business & Economics --- Economic Theory --- Business cycles --- Business forecasting --- Business --- Business forecasts --- Forecasting, Business --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Forecasting --- Economic forecasting --- Cycles --- Investments: Bonds --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Labor Economics: General --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Financial Economics --- Labour --- income economics --- Economic growth --- Investment & securities --- Economic theory & philosophy --- Labor --- Total factor productivity --- Bonds --- Financial frictions --- Labor economics --- Industrial productivity --- Argentina
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We compile a historical dataset covering nearly 40 years of booms and busts in the commodity terms of trade of over 150 countries. We discuss the characteristics of these events and their effects on macroeconomic performance and, in particular, compare the most recent commodity-price cycle with its historical precedents.
Business & Economics --- Economic Theory --- Prices. --- Terms of trade --- Business cycles --- Econometric models. --- Commercial products --- Commodity prices --- Justum pretium --- Price theory --- Prices --- Consumption (Economics) --- Cost --- Costs, Industrial --- Money --- Cost and standard of living --- Supply and demand --- Value --- Wages --- Willingness to pay --- Competition, International --- Investments: Commodities --- Investments: Energy --- Macroeconomics --- Commodity Markets --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Investment & securities --- Economic growth --- Commodities --- Commodity booms --- Commodity price fluctuations --- Papua New Guinea
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The sharp increase in debt in the Caribbean since the mid-1990s has focused attention on the conduct of fiscal policy in the region. This paper aims to diagnose how fiscal policy has behaved during this period by looking at three main cycles of the economy: the business, election, and natural disaster cycles. Our main findings suggest that fiscal policy has been mostly procyclical in the region, while disasters have been heavily "insured" by foreign transfers. The "when it rains, it pours" phenomena suggested by Kaminsky, Reinhart and Vegh (2004) seems to take place in the Caribbean.
Political Science --- Law, Politics & Government --- Public Finance --- Fiscal policy. --- Debt. --- Indebtedness --- Tax policy --- Taxation --- Government policy --- Finance --- Economic policy --- Finance, Public --- Macroeconomics --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Fiscal Policy --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Public finance & taxation --- Economic growth --- Expenditure --- Fiscal stance --- Fiscal policy --- Revenue administration --- Business cycles --- Expenditures, Public --- Revenue --- Dominica
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With a fixed peg to the U.S. dollar for more than three decades, the tourism-dependent Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) countries share a close economic relationship with the U.S. This paper analyzes the impact of the United States on ECCU business cycles and identifies possible transmission channels. Using two different approaches (the common trends and common cycles approach of Vahid and Engle (1993) and the standard VAR analysis), it finds that the ECCU economies are very sensitive to both temporary and permanent movements in the U.S. economy and that such linkages have strengthened over time. There is, however, less clear-cut evidence on the transmission channels. United States monetary policy does not appear to be an important channel of influence, while tourism is important for only one ECCU country.
Business & Economics --- Economic Theory --- Business cycles --- Economics --- Econometrics --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Economic Growth of Open Economies --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- Externalities --- Commodity Markets --- Remittances --- Economic growth --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- International economics --- Vector autoregression --- Spillovers --- Commodity prices --- Econometric analysis --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- Prices --- Balance of payments --- International finance --- United States
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Analyzing macroeconomic impacts of oil price changes requires first to investigate different sources of these changes and their distinct effects. Kilian (2009) analyzes the effects of an oil supply shock, an aggregate demand shock, and a precautionary oil demand shock. The paper's aim is to model macroeconomic consequences of these shocks within a new Keynesian DSGE framework. It models a small open economy and the rest of the world together to discover both accompanying effects of oil price changes and their international transmission mechanisms. Our results indicate that different sources of oil price fluctuations bring remarkably diverse outcomes for both economies.
Business & Economics --- Industries --- Petroleum products --- Accounting and price fluctuations. --- Prices. --- Price fluctuations and accounting --- Petroleum --- Petroleum industry and trade --- Prices --- Investments: Energy --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Energy: General --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- Nonprofit Organizations and Public Enterprise: General --- Investment & securities --- Public ownership --- nationalization --- Oil prices --- Oil --- Labor productivity --- Public enterprises --- Government business enterprises
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