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This paper analyzes complementarities between different Millennium Development Goals, focusing on child mortality and how it is influenced by progress in the other goals, in particular two goals related to the expansion of female education: universal primary education and gender equality in education. The authors provide evidence from eight Sub-Saharan African countries using two rounds of Demographic and Health Surveys per country and applying a consistent micro-econometric methodology. In contrast to the mixed findings of previous studies, for most countries the findings reveal strong complementarities between mothers' educational achievement and child mortality. Mothers' schooling lifts important demand-side constraints impeding the use of health services. Children of mothers with primary education are much more likely to receive vaccines, a crucial proximate determinant of child survival. In addition, better educated mothers tend to have longer birth intervals, which again increase the chances of child survival. For the variables related to the other goals, for example wealth proxies and access to safe drinking water, the analysis fails to detect significant effects on child mortality, a finding that may be related to data limitations. Finally, the study carries out a set of illustrative simulations to assess the prospects of achieving a reduction by two-thirds in the under-five mortality rate. The findings indicate that some countries, which have been successful in the past, seem to have used their policy space for fast progress in child mortality, for example by extending vaccination coverage. This is the main reason why future achievements will be more difficult and explains why the authors have a fairly pessimistic outlook.

Child labor --- Child mortality --- Child survival --- Development strategies --- Early Child and Children's Health --- Educated mothers --- Female education --- Gender equality --- Health Monitoring and Evaluation --- Health services --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Household income --- Longer birth intervals --- Millennium development goals --- Mortality rate --- Policy research --- Policy research working paper --- Population growth --- Population Policies --- Progress --- Resource requirements --- Safe drinking water --- Universal primary education --- Vaccines

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This study documents the long-term welfare effects of household non-traditional agricultural export (NTX) adoption. The analysis uses a unique panel dataset, which spans the period 1985-2005, and employs difference-in-differences estimation to investigate the long-term impact of non-traditional agricultural export adoption on changes in household consumption status and asset position in the Central Highlands of Guatemala. Given the heterogeneity in adoption patterns, the analysis differentiates the impact estimates based on a classification of households that takes into account the timing and duration of non-traditional agricultural export adoption. The results show that while, on average, welfare levels have improved for all households irrespective of adoption status and duration, the extent of improvement has varied across groups. Long-term adopters exhibit the smallest increase in the lapse of two decades, in spite of some early gains. Conversely, early adopters who withdrew from non-traditional agricultural export production after reaping the benefits of the boom period of the 1980s are found to have fared better and shown greater improvements in durable asset position and housing conditions than any other category.

Agency problems --- Agriculture --- Comparative advantage --- Competitiveness --- Consumption levels --- Crops and Crop Management Systems --- Devaluation --- Development strategies --- Development strategy --- Economic Theory and Research --- Exports --- GDP --- Human capital --- Living standards --- Multiplier effects --- Negative externalities --- Poverty Reduction --- Product markets --- Production costs --- Regional Economic Development --- Rural Development --- Rural Development Knowledge and Information Systems --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Technical assistance --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Wealth

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The 2005 Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness sets targets for increased use by donors of recipient country systems for managing aid. A consensus view holds that country systems are strengthened when donors trust recipients to manage aid funds, but undermined when donors manage aid through their own separate parallel systems. This paper provides an analytical framework for understanding donors' decisions to trust in country systems or instead to micro-manage aid using their own systems and procedures. Where country systems are sufficiently weak, the development impact of aid is reduced by donors' reliance on them. Trust in country systems will be sub-optimal, however, if donors have multiple objectives in aid provision rather than a sole objective of maximizing development outcomes. Empirical tests are conducted using data from an OECD survey designed to monitor progress toward Paris Declaration goals. Trust in country systems is measured in three ways: use of the recipient's public financial management systems, use of direct budget support, and use of program-based approaches. The authors show using fixed effects regression that a donor's trust in recipient country systems is positively related to (1) trustworthiness or quality of those systems, (2) tolerance for risk on the part of the donor's constituents, as measured by public support for providing aid, and (3) the donor's ability to internalize more of the benefits of investing in country systems, as measured by the donor's share of all aid provided to a recipient.

Aid --- Aid agencies --- Aid flows --- Coastal and Marine Environment --- Country Strategy and Performance --- Development assistance --- Development Economics and Aid Effectiveness --- Development goals --- Development impact --- Development issues --- Development research --- Development strategies --- Development strategy --- Disability --- Diseases --- Economic Theory and Research --- Environment --- Gender --- Gender and Health --- Health, Nutrition and Population --- Humanitarian aid --- International aid --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Microfinance --- National development --- Priorities --- Resource management --- Social Protections and Labor --- Specialists --- Std --- Technical assistance

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Rwanda is not on track to achieve most of the Millennium Development Goals at a time when hopes for scaled-up aid are mixed with concerns that, in the context of the global economic crisis, aid instead will be scaled down. This paper analyzes the effects of alternative scenarios for grant aid, government spending allocations (between infrastructure, agriculture, and human development), and government efficiency. The authors use an economy-wide model for development strategy analysis, Maquette for Millennium Development Goal Simulations. Under a plausible scenario for increased aid, annual growth in gross domestic product increases by as much as 0.6 percentage points relative to a baseline with a growth rate of 6 percent; by 2020, the headcount poverty rate declines to 32 percent, 3 percentage points lower than for the baseline. A plausible scenario for reduced aid leads to a symmetric growth reduction but a more pronounced increase in poverty, at 40 percent in 2020. When aid increases, the most positive growth and poverty reduction impacts occur if spending increases are allocated to infrastructure and agriculture; progress in human health and education is significant but weaker than if additional spending is focused on these areas. Given synergies and diminishing marginal returns from expansion in a limited area, the scenarios that may appear most attractive and politically feasible have a broad and balanced expansion across government functions, promoting both growth and human development.

Agriculture --- Banks and Banking Reform --- Benchmark --- Currencies and Exchange Rates --- Debt --- Debt Markets --- Development policy --- Development strategies --- Development strategy --- Economic Theory and Research --- Emerging Markets --- Exports --- Finance and Financial Sector Development --- GINI coefficient --- Gross domestic product --- Growth rate --- Imperfect substitutes --- Inflation rates --- Macroeconomic stability --- Macroeconomics and Economic Growth --- Population --- Population Policies --- Poverty Reduction --- Price increases --- Private Sector Development --- Pro-Poor Growth --- Productivity --- Public Sector Development --- Public Sector Economics and Finance --- Public Sector Expenditure Analysis and Management --- Real GDP --- Rural Development --- Rural Poverty Reduction --- Technical assistance --- Trade balance --- Utility maximization --- Wages

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China is experiencing rapid and large scale urbanization, and the resulting local and global urban environmental challenges are unprecedented. The Chinese Government has fully recognized these challenges and is aiming to promote more sustainable urbanization in line with the objectives of the eleventh five year plan, which calls for 'building a resource-conserving and environmentally friendly society'. Various initiatives are being pursued to support this objective, both at the national and local levels. At the local level, cities have responded by developing 'eco-cities', which aim to promote a more sustainable urbanization model. More than one hundred eco-city initiatives have been launched in recent years. One such initiative is the Sino-Singapore Tianjin eco-city. The purpose of this report is to review the Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco-City (SSTEC) project from a comprehensive perspective with a view to achieving the following principal objectives: (i) create a detailed knowledge base on the project; (ii) provide policy advice on key issues, especially those related to the Global Environment Facility (GEF) project; (iii) estimate SSTEC's Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission reduction potential; and (iv) contextualize the project among the broader ecological urban development initiatives in China. Broadening the World Bank's engagement beyond the GEF was assessed as important given the project's complexity, and its potential to shed light on China's sustainable urban development challenges

Affordable Housing --- Air Pollution --- Air Quality --- Audits --- Carbon Dioxide --- Carbon Emissions --- Carbon Finance --- City Development Strategies --- Clean Development Mechanism --- Climate --- Climate Change --- Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases --- Coal --- Decision Making --- Demographics --- Drainage --- Drinking Water --- Economic Development --- Economics --- Electricity --- Emission Reductions --- Emissions --- Employment --- Energy --- Energy and Environment --- Energy Consumption --- Energy Efficiency --- Energy Production and Transportation --- Energy Supply --- Environment --- Environmental Economics & Policies --- Expenditures --- Geothermal Energy --- Global Environment Facility --- Global Warming --- Greenhouse Gases --- Gross Domestic Product --- Hot Water --- Landfill Gas --- Liquefied Natural Gas --- Methane --- Mobility --- Natural Gas --- Natural Resources --- Noise Pollution --- Pollutants --- Population Density --- Population Growth --- Precipitation --- Recycling --- Renewable Energy --- Risk Management --- Roads --- Solar Energy --- Street Lighting --- Thermal Power --- Transport --- Urban Development --- Urban Economic Development --- Urban Environment --- Urban Sprawl --- Waste Management --- Wastewater Treatment --- Water Pollution