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Concentrated distribution of international reserves is puzzling. I show that the growth rates of international reserves bear only a very weak relationship to their initial stocks (scaled by GDP or in absolute terms), and that, by implication, the cross-sectional distribution of reserves conforms to Zipf's law. The law states that the size of reserves is inversely related to their ranking. Evidence in favor of the law is strong and time robust. I compare the crosssection distribution of international reserves embedded in the WEO projections to that implied by Zipf's law and find that international reserves are much less concentrated in the WEO projections than implied by Zipf's law.
Foreign exchange --- International liquidity --- Reserves (Accounting) --- Accounting --- Amortization --- Sinking-funds --- Balance of payments --- International finance --- Liquidity (Economics) --- Econometric models. --- Banks and Banking --- Investments: Stocks --- Demography --- Monetary Policy --- Demographic Economics: General --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Banking --- Population & demography --- Investment & securities --- International reserves --- Reserves accumulation --- Population and demographics --- Stocks --- Reserve assets --- Foreign exchange reserves --- Population --- United States
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This paper proposes a framework for public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) that is complementary to that generally used by IFIs. The DSA in this paper has three components: (i) an integrated and consistent accounting framework for the Consolidated Public Sector (CPS); (ii) the estimation of an appropriate, and country-specific debt threshold, following the approach proposed by Reinhart, Rogoff and Savastano (2003); and (iii) a method for the calculation of the CPS primary balance to achieve the desired debt targets, without resorting to ad-hoc assumptions for the values of the macroeconomic variables during the planning horizon, in the spirit of Garcia and Rigobon (2004) and Celasun, Debrun and Ostry (2006). The paper uses this approach to analyze the sustainability of the Dominican Republic's Public Debt.
Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Financial Risk Management --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Fiscal Policy --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Monetary Policy --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Public finance & taxation --- Banking --- International economics --- Finance --- Fiscal stance --- Public debt --- International reserves --- Debt sustainability analysis --- Debt reduction --- Fiscal policy --- Debts, Public --- Foreign exchange reserves --- Debts, External --- Dominican Republic
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The economic performance of Lebanon was significantly better despite difficult political conditions under the Emergency Post-Conflict Assistance (EPCA). With lackluster growth and fiscal tightness, the external current account deficit needs to be improved. There is limited scope for fiscal policy actions. The government faces substantial gross financing needs and remains vulnerable to changes in regional liquidity and demand. Increased inflation could worsen the fiscal outlook. In view of this, the authorities have expressed interest in continued quarterly monitoring of Lebanon’s economic policies and performance by the IMF.
Banks and Banking --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Fiscal Policy --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Monetary Policy --- Public finance & taxation --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Banking --- Public debt --- Fiscal stance --- Expenditure --- International reserves --- Fiscal policy --- Central banks --- Debts, Public --- Expenditures, Public --- Foreign exchange reserves --- Lebanon
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In recent years, the South Caucasus and Central Asia countries (CCA-6) have received significant foreign exchange inflows. While a healthy reserve buffer is desirable to selfinsure against external crises, holding international reserves also involves costs. We analyze the adequacy of CCA-6 reserves using widely recognized rules of thumb, and simulate optimal reserve levels applying the Jeanne (2007) model. Both the adequacy measures and the model-based simulations indicate that, with the exception of Tajikistan, CCA-6 reserves had increased to broadly comfortable levels by 2006. More recently, reserve adequacy has been tested in Kazakhstan, which has been affected by the 2007 global liquidity crunch.
Foreign exchange --- Finance --- Econometric models. --- Caucasus --- Asia, Central --- Caucasia --- Caucasus Mountains --- Caucasus Region --- Kavkaz --- Economic conditions. --- Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Financial Risk Management --- Foreign Exchange --- Monetary Policy --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Financial Crises --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Banking --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- International economics --- Currency --- International reserves --- International capital markets --- Financial crises --- External debt --- Foreign exchange reserves --- Capital market --- Debts, External --- Kazakhstan, Republic of
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Central bank financial strength is positively associated with good policy performance. Financially weak central banks generate losses which undermine macroeconomic stability and call into question the credibility of their policies. In assessing central bank financial strength a careful examination of the policy regime and the volatility of the economic environment is necessary. Conventional measures of private enterprise financial strength- profitability and capital-can be very misleading when applied to central banks. The way in which a central bank balance sheet is strengthened matters. Providing the central bank with marketable government debt that can be used to develop a money market that in turn may become the locus of central bank monetary operations serves both to directly strengthen the institution and improve the quality of the environment in which it operates, thereby facilitating the attainment of its ultimate performance objectives.
Monetary policy --- Banks and banking, Central --- Banker's banks --- Banks, Central --- Central banking --- Central banks --- Banks and banking --- Econometric models. --- Accounting --- Banks and Banking --- Inflation --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Monetary Policy --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Public Administration --- Public Sector Accounting and Audits --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Banking --- Financial reporting, financial statements --- Macroeconomics --- International reserves --- Central bank balance sheet --- Financial statements --- Foreign exchange reserves --- Finance, Public --- Prices --- Canada
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This paper discusses key findings of the Fourth Review Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) for Madagascar. Program performance has been generally good. The authorities have continued to implement sound fiscal and monetary policies that have resulted in good macroeconomic outcomes. They met all of the quantitative performance criteria (PCs) for end-January 2008, but missed two structural PCs. The international reserves cover is expected to deteriorate markedly, prompting the authorities to ask for an augmentation of 15 percent of quota, a request that IMF staff supports.
Economic assistance. --- International Monetary Fund. --- Poverty. --- Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Public Finance --- Inflation --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Trade: General --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- Monetary Policy --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Banking --- Monetary economics --- External debt --- Public debt --- International reserves --- Revenue administration --- Central banks --- Prices --- Debts, External --- Debts, Public --- Foreign exchange reserves --- Revenue --- Banks and banking --- Madagascar, Republic of
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This paper discusses key findings of the Third Review for Peru and Inflation Consultation Under the Stand-By Arrangement. All performance criteria for end-December 2007 and end-March 2008 were observed, but inflation in March exceeded the upper limit of the program’s consultation band around the official inflation target range. The end-March structural benchmark was observed and progress has been made on end-June benchmarks. The outlook for 2008 remains favorable, with the economy continuing its strong momentum, as downside global risks are buffered by improvements in fundamentals and prudent policies.
International Monetary Fund -- Peru. --- International Monetary Fund. --- Peru -- Economic policy. --- Peru -- Foreign economic relations. --- Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Public Enterprises --- Public-Private Enterprises --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Civil service & public sector --- Banking --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- Public sector --- Public debt --- International reserves --- External debt --- Economic sectors --- Prices --- Central banks --- Finance, Public --- Debts, Public --- Foreign exchange reserves --- Debts, External --- Peru
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The Lebanese authorities have requested follow-up Emergency Post-Conflict Assistance with an access of 12.5 percent of quota to support their economic program. The 2006 war with Israel led to a political stalemate and repeated outbreaks of domestic fighting until the formation of a national unity government in July 2008. Macroeconomic conditions have improved, but fuel and food prices have boosted inflation. Financial market developments have been favorable, despite the global financial crisis, which has had little effect on Lebanon.
Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Public Finance --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Fiscal Policy --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Monetary Policy --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- Monetary economics --- Banking --- Public debt --- External debt --- Fiscal stance --- Currencies --- Commercial banks --- Fiscal policy --- International reserves --- Central banks --- Money --- Debts, Public --- Debts, External --- Banks and banking --- Foreign exchange reserves --- Lebanon
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The IMF forged an important partnership with the Uruguayan government aiming to help the country overcome its worst financial and economic crisis. The early termination of the program is seen as a sign of success, primarily for the government and also for the IMF. The delays and the unfinished structural agenda were a disappointment. In future, the government should continue to take advantage of the opportunity offered by the favorable environment to place the economy on a sound footing, and protect it against abrupt market reversals.
Banks and banking --- Finance, Public --- Cameralistics --- Public finance --- Public finances --- Currency question --- Uruguay --- Economic conditions --- Banks and Banking --- Financial Risk Management --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Inflation --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Financial Crises --- Fiscal Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy --- Banking --- Public finance & taxation --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Public debt --- Financial crises --- Commercial banks --- Fiscal stance --- Financial institutions --- Prices --- International reserves --- Central banks --- Debts, Public --- Fiscal policy --- Foreign exchange reserves
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The fiscal stance has been more expansionary in 2008, but there should be no need for net domestic financing. The new fiscal regime for mining increases the average effective tax rate from a level that was significantly below that of other mining countries. The monetary program aims to reduce annual inflation to 7 percent in 2008. The authorities intend to address the challenge of coordinating fiscal and monetary policies to enable the Bank of Zambia (BoZ) to improve liquidity management. Structural policies will complement the medium-term macroeconomic framework.
Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Natural Resource Extraction --- Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction: General --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Monetary Policy --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Extractive industries --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Banking --- Mining sector --- Public financial management (PFM) --- External debt --- International reserves --- Oil prices --- Economic sectors --- Central banks --- Mineral industries --- Debts, External --- Finance, Public --- Foreign exchange reserves --- Zambia
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