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Book
International Reserves—Too Much of a Zipf’s Thing
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ISBN: 1462391125 1452758174 1283274043 9786613823434 1451913265 Year: 2008 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

Concentrated distribution of international reserves is puzzling. I show that the growth rates of international reserves bear only a very weak relationship to their initial stocks (scaled by GDP or in absolute terms), and that, by implication, the cross-sectional distribution of reserves conforms to Zipf's law. The law states that the size of reserves is inversely related to their ranking. Evidence in favor of the law is strong and time robust. I compare the crosssection distribution of international reserves embedded in the WEO projections to that implied by Zipf's law and find that international reserves are much less concentrated in the WEO projections than implied by Zipf's law.


Book
A Stochastic Framework for Public Debt Sustainability Analysis
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ISBN: 1462349757 1452736987 1283517841 9786613830296 1451913737 Year: 2008 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper proposes a framework for public debt sustainability analysis (DSA) that is complementary to that generally used by IFIs. The DSA in this paper has three components: (i) an integrated and consistent accounting framework for the Consolidated Public Sector (CPS); (ii) the estimation of an appropriate, and country-specific debt threshold, following the approach proposed by Reinhart, Rogoff and Savastano (2003); and (iii) a method for the calculation of the CPS primary balance to achieve the desired debt targets, without resorting to ad-hoc assumptions for the values of the macroeconomic variables during the planning horizon, in the spirit of Garcia and Rigobon (2004) and Celasun, Debrun and Ostry (2006). The paper uses this approach to analyze the sustainability of the Dominican Republic's Public Debt.


Book
Lebanon : Report on Performance Under the Program Supported by Emergency Post: Conflict Assistance.
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ISBN: 1462379648 1452795053 1280928794 1452789169 9786613744609 Year: 2008 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The economic performance of Lebanon was significantly better despite difficult political conditions under the Emergency Post-Conflict Assistance (EPCA). With lackluster growth and fiscal tightness, the external current account deficit needs to be improved. There is limited scope for fiscal policy actions. The government faces substantial gross financing needs and remains vulnerable to changes in regional liquidity and demand. Increased inflation could worsen the fiscal outlook. In view of this, the authorities have expressed interest in continued quarterly monitoring of Lebanon’s economic policies and performance by the IMF.


Book
International Reserve Trends in the South Caucasus and Central Asia Region
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ISBN: 1462386075 1452750106 1283514877 1451913567 9786613827326 Year: 2008 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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In recent years, the South Caucasus and Central Asia countries (CCA-6) have received significant foreign exchange inflows. While a healthy reserve buffer is desirable to selfinsure against external crises, holding international reserves also involves costs. We analyze the adequacy of CCA-6 reserves using widely recognized rules of thumb, and simulate optimal reserve levels applying the Jeanne (2007) model. Both the adequacy measures and the model-based simulations indicate that, with the exception of Tajikistan, CCA-6 reserves had increased to broadly comfortable levels by 2006. More recently, reserve adequacy has been tested in Kazakhstan, which has been affected by the 2007 global liquidity crunch.


Book
Central Bank Financial Strength, Policy Constraints and Inflation
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ISBN: 1462371957 1452773300 1283294907 9786613823496 1451913648 Year: 2008 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Central bank financial strength is positively associated with good policy performance. Financially weak central banks generate losses which undermine macroeconomic stability and call into question the credibility of their policies. In assessing central bank financial strength a careful examination of the policy regime and the volatility of the economic environment is necessary. Conventional measures of private enterprise financial strength- profitability and capital-can be very misleading when applied to central banks. The way in which a central bank balance sheet is strengthened matters. Providing the central bank with marketable government debt that can be used to develop a money market that in turn may become the locus of central bank monetary operations serves both to directly strengthen the institution and improve the quality of the environment in which it operates, thereby facilitating the attainment of its ultimate performance objectives.


Book
Republic of Madagascar : Fourth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility and Request for Waiver of Performance Criteria, Modification of Performance Criteria, and Augmentation of Access-Staff Report; Staff Supplement and Statement; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Madagascar.
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ISBN: 1455283339 1452723192 1280898593 9786613739902 1451997205 Year: 2008 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper discusses key findings of the Fourth Review Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) for Madagascar. Program performance has been generally good. The authorities have continued to implement sound fiscal and monetary policies that have resulted in good macroeconomic outcomes. They met all of the quantitative performance criteria (PCs) for end-January 2008, but missed two structural PCs. The international reserves cover is expected to deteriorate markedly, prompting the authorities to ask for an augmentation of 15 percent of quota, a request that IMF staff supports.


Book
Peru : Third Review and Inflation Consultation Under the Stand-By Arrangement and Request for Waiver of Applicability of Performance Criteria: Staff Report; Staff Supplement; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Peru.
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ISBN: 1455254037 1452759502 1280895209 1451989199 9786613736512 Year: 2008 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper discusses key findings of the Third Review for Peru and Inflation Consultation Under the Stand-By Arrangement. All performance criteria for end-December 2007 and end-March 2008 were observed, but inflation in March exceeded the upper limit of the program’s consultation band around the official inflation target range. The end-March structural benchmark was observed and progress has been made on end-June benchmarks. The outlook for 2008 remains favorable, with the economy continuing its strong momentum, as downside global risks are buffered by improvements in fundamentals and prudent policies.


Book
Lebanon : Use of Fund Resources: Request for Emergency Post-Conflict Assistance: Staff Report; and Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion.
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462340296 1452718164 1280883154 9786613724465 1451883382 Year: 2008 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The Lebanese authorities have requested follow-up Emergency Post-Conflict Assistance with an access of 12.5 percent of quota to support their economic program. The 2006 war with Israel led to a political stalemate and repeated outbreaks of domestic fighting until the formation of a national unity government in July 2008. Macroeconomic conditions have improved, but fuel and food prices have boosted inflation. Financial market developments have been favorable, despite the global financial crisis, which has had little effect on Lebanon.


Book
Uruguay : Ex-Post Evaluation of Exceptional Access Under the 2005 Stand-By Arrangement.
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ISBN: 1455267104 1452718091 1283570459 9786613882905 1451993242 Year: 2008 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The IMF forged an important partnership with the Uruguayan government aiming to help the country overcome its worst financial and economic crisis. The early termination of the program is seen as a sign of success, primarily for the government and also for the IMF. The delays and the unfinished structural agenda were a disappointment. In future, the government should continue to take advantage of the opportunity offered by the favorable environment to place the economy on a sound footing, and protect it against abrupt market reversals.


Book
Zambia : Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility: Staff Report; Staff Statement; Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for Zambia.
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1455231770 1452779635 1281155586 9786613776945 1451991967 Year: 2008 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

The fiscal stance has been more expansionary in 2008, but there should be no need for net domestic financing. The new fiscal regime for mining increases the average effective tax rate from a level that was significantly below that of other mining countries. The monetary program aims to reduce annual inflation to 7 percent in 2008. The authorities intend to address the challenge of coordinating fiscal and monetary policies to enable the Bank of Zambia (BoZ) to improve liquidity management. Structural policies will complement the medium-term macroeconomic framework.

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