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The question of how India should adapt monetary policy to ongoing financial globalization has gained prominence with the recent surge in capital inflows. This paper documents the degree to which India has become financially globalized, both in absolute terms and relative to emerging and developed countries. We find that despite a relatively low degree of openness, India's domestic monetary conditions are highly influenced by global factors. We then review the experiences of countries that have adapted to financial globalization, drawing lessons for India. While we find no strong relationship between the degree of stability in monetary conditions and the broad monetary policy regime, our findings suggest that improvements in monetary operations and communication?sometimes prompted by a shift to an IT regime?have helped stabilize broader monetary conditions. In addition, the experience of countries which used non-standard instruments suggests that room to regulate capital flows effectively through capital controls diminishes as financial integration increases.
Monetary policy --- Finance --- Globalization --- Global cities --- Globalisation --- Internationalization --- International relations --- Anti-globalization movement --- Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- International Investment --- Long-term Capital Movements --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Banking --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- International economics --- Exchange rates --- Capital inflows --- Open market operations --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Banks and banking --- Capital movements --- India
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Using a new fiscal dataset for small states, this paper analyzes the link between country size, government size, debt, and economic performance. It finds that on average small states have larger governments and higher public debt. Although there are intrinsic factors that explain why governments are bigger in small states, those with smaller governments and lower public debt tend to grow faster and are less vulnerable. Large fiscal adjustments, primarily through expenditure restraint, can underpin growth, although sometimes other elements can also impact. Since better governance is associated with lower debt, fiscal adjustment should be supported by governance improvements.
Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Fiscal Policy --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Public debt --- External debt --- Expenditure --- Fiscal consolidation --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Debts, Public --- Debts, External --- Expenditures, Public --- Fiscal policy --- Cabo Verde
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'Commodity Boom: How Long Will It Last?' asks how economies will fare after the record-high prices of key raw materials posted in recent months, which build on dramatic increases from their lows of 2000. The lead article warns that the impact on headline inflation levels might persist throughout 2008, even without further commodity price hikes. It urges policymakers to ensure efficient functioning of market forces at the global level, and to move swiftly to protect the poorest. Another article addresses the effects of climate change on agriculture, warning that farm production will fall dramatically—especially in developing countries—if steps are not taken to curb carbon emissions. Other articles on this theme argue that policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions need not hobble economies, and that financial markets can help address climate change. 'People in Economics' profiles John Taylor; 'Picture This' says the global energy system is on an increasingly unsustainable path; 'Country Focus' spotlights South Africa; and 'Straight Talk' examines early warnings provided by credit derivatives. Also in this issue, articles examine China's increasing economic engagement with Africa, and the outsourcing of service jobs to other countries.
Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Taxation --- Environmental Economics --- Environmental Conservation and Protection --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- Commodity Markets --- Taxation and Subsidies: Externalities --- Redistributive Effects --- Environmental Taxes and Subsidies --- Agriculture: General --- Climate change --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Public finance & taxation --- Investment & securities --- Greenhouse gas emissions --- Carbon tax --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Emissions trading --- Climatic changes --- Greenhouse gases --- Prices --- Environmental impact charges --- United States
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Monetary policy, at least in part, operates through both an interest rate and credit channel. The question arises, therefore, whether monetary policy is a less potent a device in affecting output and inflation in countries that have low levels of credit and where investment and consumption are not financed by borrowing in local currency. This paper employs a Panel Vector Auto Regression approach to examine the empirical evidence in a broad sample of emerging market countries. The data suggests that the effectiveness of changes in policy interest rates in influencing the path of inflation appear to be unrelated to the level of credit and that, instead, the willingness to allow exchange rate flexibility is a far more important determining factor.
Monetary policy --- Credit --- Inflation (Finance) --- Econometric models. --- Borrowing --- Finance --- Money --- Loans --- Econometrics --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- Monetary economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Vector autoregression --- Producer prices --- Prices --- United States
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We assess the competitiveness of Mauritius in recent years using two approaches. First, we estimate the difference between the equilibrium and the actual real exchange rate using four methods: the macroeconomic balance approach, the single-equation fundamentals approach, the capital-enhanced approach, and the external sustainability approach. The methods consistently suggest that at the end of 2007 the exchange rate was aligned with its equilibrium value. Second, we undertake a comparative analysis of structural competitiveness indicators and find that Mauritius often fares better on business climate than other small island economies and high-growth Asian economies. Nevertheless, there are areas for improvement.
Competition --- Foreign exchange rates --- Equilibrium (Economics) --- Econometric models. --- Exchange rates --- Fixed exchange rates --- Flexible exchange rates --- Floating exchange rates --- Fluctuating exchange rates --- Foreign exchange --- Rates of exchange --- Competition (Economics) --- Competitiveness (Economics) --- Economic competition --- Rates --- Economic aspects --- Commerce --- Conglomerate corporations --- Covenants not to compete --- Industrial concentration --- Monopolies --- Open price system --- Supply and demand --- Trusts, Industrial --- Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Currency --- Finance --- Real exchange rates --- Real effective exchange rates --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Mauritius
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What determines the currency to which countries peg or "anchor" their exchange rate? Data for over 100 countries between 1980 and 1998 reveal that trade network externalities are a key determinant. This implies that anchor currency choice may well be suboptimal in that certain currencies, e.g., the U.S. dollar, could be oversubscribed. It also implies that changes in anchor choices by a small number of countries can have large and rapid effects on the international monetary system. Other factors found to be related to anchor choice include the symmetry of output shocks and the currency denomination of liabilities.
Foreign exchange rates. --- Foreign exchange administration. --- Coinage, International. --- International coinage --- International money --- Money, International --- Exchange rates --- Fixed exchange rates --- Flexible exchange rates --- Floating exchange rates --- Fluctuating exchange rates --- Foreign exchange --- Rates of exchange --- Rates --- Currency question --- Monetary unions --- Money --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Financial Aspects of Economic Integration --- Monetary economics --- Currency --- International economics --- Reserve currencies --- Currencies --- Exchange rate arrangements --- United States
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Ce numéro, intitulé « Boom des matières premières : pour combien de temps encore ? », pose la question suivante : comment l'économie va-t-elle évoluer après le niveau record des prix des matières premières observées au cours des derniers mois, qui accumulent des augmentations très éloignées des niveaux faibles des premières années de la décennie ? L'article principal met en garde contre la possibilité que les retombées pour les taux d'inflation pourraient persister tout au long de l'année 2008, même en l'absence de nouvelle hausse des prix des matières premières. Il exhorte les dirigeants à veiller au bon fonctionnement des forces du marché à l'échelle mondiale, et à prendre sans tarder des mesures pour protéger les populations les plus pauvres. Un autre article s'intéresse aux effets du changement climatique sur l'agriculture, et averti que la productivité agricole pourrait fortement chuter, en particulier dans les pays en développement, si rien n'est fait pour diminuer les émissions de carbone. D'autres articles sur ce thème allèguent que les politiques de réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre ne nuisent pas forcément à l'économie, et que les marchés financiers peuvent contribuer à atténuer le changement climatique. Dans les rubriques habituelles, « Paroles d'économistes » est consacré à John Taylor,« Pleins feux » indique que le système énergétique mondial suit une trajectoire de moins en moins durable, « Gros plan » est consacré à l'Afrique du Sud, et« Entre nous » s'intéresse aux signaux d'alarme indiqués par les dérivés de crédit. D'autres articles de ce numéro s'intéressent aux liens économiques de plus en plus étroits entre la Chine et l'Afrique, ainsi qu'à la délocalisation des emplois de services à l'étranger.
Business. --- Corporations -- Finance. --- Finance. --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Taxation --- Environmental Economics --- Environmental Conservation and Protection --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- Commodity Markets --- Taxation and Subsidies: Externalities --- Redistributive Effects --- Environmental Taxes and Subsidies --- Agriculture: General --- Climate change --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Public finance & taxation --- Investment & securities --- Greenhouse gas emissions --- Carbon tax --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Emissions trading --- Climatic changes --- Greenhouse gases --- Prices --- Environmental impact charges --- United States
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This special issue on exchange rates is drawn from the Eighth Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference held at the International Monetary Fund in Washington in November 2007. The Mundell-Fleming Lecture by Stanley Fischer focuses on exchange rate systems, surveillance, and advice. Jeffrey Frankel and Shang-Jin Wei examine the techniques for estimating de facto exchange rate regimes, while J. Lawrence Broz, Jeffry Frieden, and Stephen Weymouth review survey data to discern exchange rate policy attitudes. In a paper entitled "Fear of Declaring", Adolfo Barajas, Lennart Erickson, and Roberto Steiner try to determine the extent to which markets care about what countries say regarding their exchange rate policies.
Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Industries: Manufacturing --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Development Planning and Policy: Trade Policy --- Factor Movement --- Foreign Exchange Policy --- Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Monetary economics --- Manufacturing industries --- Finance --- Exchange rates --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Personal income --- Currencies --- Exchange rate policy --- National accounts --- Money --- Income --- Foreign exchange market --- United States
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En “Boom de los productos básicos: ¿Cuánto durará?” se analiza cómo reaccionarán las economías ante la reciente escalada sin precedentes de los precios de las materias primas, los cuales contrastan marcadamente con los mínimos registrados en 2000. En el artículo de fondo se advierte que las repercusiones del alza del nivel general de inflación podrían persistir a lo largo de 2008, aun si no se produjeran nuevos aumentos de precios de las materias primas. Las autoridades deben garantizar el funcionamiento eficiente de las fuerzas del mercado a escala mundial y actuar con celeridad para proteger a los más pobres. En otro artículo se analiza el impacto del cambio climático en la agricultura y se advierte que, si no se reducen las emisiones de carbono, la producción agrícola disminuirá notablemente, sobre todo en los países en desarrollo. En otros artículos se plantea que las políticas para reducir las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero no tienen por qué ser perjudiciales para las economías y que los mercados financieros pueden ser parte de la solución del problema del cambio climático. En “Gente del mundo de la economía” se entrevista a John Taylor; en “Bajo la lupa” se observa cómo el sistema mundial de energía avanza hacia una situación cada vez más insostenible; en “Panorama nacional” se pasa revista a Sudáfrica; y en “Hablando claro” se examinan las señales de alerta que emiten los instrumentos financieros derivados sobre crédito. En otros artículos se analiza la creciente presencia económica de China en África y la relocalización en el extranjero de los empleos del sector de servicios.
Business. --- Economics. --- Finance. --- Social policy. --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Taxation --- Environmental Economics --- Environmental Conservation and Protection --- Climate --- Natural Disasters and Their Management --- Global Warming --- Commodity Markets --- Taxation and Subsidies: Externalities --- Redistributive Effects --- Environmental Taxes and Subsidies --- Agriculture: General --- Climate change --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Public finance & taxation --- Investment & securities --- Greenhouse gas emissions --- Carbon tax --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Emissions trading --- Climatic changes --- Greenhouse gases --- Prices --- Environmental impact charges --- United States
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Selon ce rapport, les perspectives se sont quelque peu dégradées pour l'Afrique subsaharienne, et les risques ont augmenté. La croissance devrait diminuer dans la région, s'établissant à 6 % en 2008 et 2009. Cette dégradation tient principalement à l'envolée mondiale des prix des denrées alimentaires et des carburants, qui pèse fortement sur la croissance des pays importateurs de pétrole, ainsi qu'aux turbulences financières mondiales, qui ont freiné la croissance mondiale et la demande d'exportations en provenance de l'Afrique. L'inflation devrait atteindre 12 % en 2008, en raison principalement du choc sur les prix des denrées alimentaires et du pétrole. À cause de la hausse des prix, en particulier des prix alimentaires, il est fort possible que la pauvreté s'aggrave en 2008. En 2009, l'inflation devrait diminuer pour s'établir à 10 %, en raison de la baisse récente des prix des produits de base. Des risques considérables pèsent sur les perspectives, car les turbulences financières mondiales pourraient s'aggraver et se prolonger, entraînant un ralentissement accru de l'activité économique mondiale, et car les prix des produits de base restent entourés d'une grande incertitude.
Africa, Sub-Saharan -- Economic conditions -- Statistics. --- Africa, Sub-Saharan -- Economic conditions. --- Economic forecasting -- Africa, Sub-Saharan. --- Monetary policy -- Africa, Sub-Saharan. --- Investments: Energy --- Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Energy: General --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Prices --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Investment & securities --- International economics --- Environmental management --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Conventional peg --- Floating exchange rates --- Oil --- Petroleum industry and trade --- Food prices --- Income --- South Africa
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