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This paper constructs new business cycle indices for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico based on common dynamic factors extracted from a comprehensive set of sectoral output, external data, and fiscal and financial variables spanning over a century. The constructed indices are used to derive a business cycle chronology for these countries and characterize a set of new stylized facts. In particular, we show that all four countries have historically displayed a striking combination of high business cycle and persistence relative to benchmark countries, and that such volatility has been time-varying, with important differences across policy regimes. We also uncover a sizeable common factor across the four economies which has greatly limited scope for regional risk sharing.

Business cycles -- Latin America -- Econometric models. --- Business forescasting -- Latin America. --- Electronic books. -- local. --- Business & Economics --- Economic Theory --- Business cycles --- Business forescasting --- Econometric models. --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Business forecasting --- Cycles --- Business --- Business forecasts --- Forecasting, Business --- Economic forecasting --- Forecasting --- Econometrics --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Business Fluctuations --- Economic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics --- Growth and Fluctuations: General, International, or Comparative --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Classification Methods --- Cluster Analysis --- Principal Components --- Factor Models --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Economic growth --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Factor models --- Terms of trade --- Economic recession --- Expenditure --- Econometric analysis --- International trade --- Econometric models --- Economic policy --- nternational cooperation --- Recessions --- Expenditures, Public --- Mexico

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This paper argues that limited asset market participation is crucial in explaining U.S. macroeconomic performance and monetary policy before the 1980s, and their changes thereafter. We develop an otherwise standard sticky-price dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, which implies that at low asset-market participation rates, the interest rate elasticity of output (the slope of the IS curve) becomes positive - that is, "non-Keynesian." Remarkably, in that case, a passive monetary policy rule ensures equilibrium determinacy and maximizes welfare. Consequently, we argue that the policy of the Federal Reserve System in the pre-Volcker era, often associated with a passive monetary policy rule, was closer to optimal than conventional wisdom suggests and may thus have remained unchanged at a fundamental level thereafter. We provide institutional and empirical evidence for our hypothesis, in the latter case using Bayesian estimation techniques, and show that our model is able to explain most features of the "Great Inflation.".

Electronic books. -- local. --- Inflation (Finance). --- Monetary policy. --- Finance --- Business & Economics --- Money --- Inflation (Finance) --- Monetary management --- Economic policy --- Currency boards --- Money supply --- Natural rate of unemployment --- Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Monetary Policy --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Studies of Particular Policy Episodes --- Economic History: Macroeconomics --- Growth and Fluctuations: U.S. --- Canada: 1913 --- -Economic History: Financial Markets and Institutions: U.S. --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Securities markets --- Consumption --- Hyperinflation --- Real interest rates --- Financial markets --- Prices --- National accounts --- Financial services --- Capital market --- Economics --- Interest rates --- United States

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Workers' remittances are often argued to have a tendency to move countercyclically with the GDP in recipient countries since migrant workers are expected to remit more during down cycles of economic activity back home. Yet, how much to remit is a complex decision involving other factors, and different variables driving remittance behavior are differently affected by the state of economic activity over the business cycle. This paper investigates the behavior of workers' remittances flows into 12 developing countries over their respective business cycles during 1976-2003 and finds that countercyclicality of receipts is not commonly observed across these countries.

Emigrant remittances. --- Immigrant remittances --- Remittances, Emigrant --- Foreign exchange --- Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- International Migration --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Other --- Geographic Labor Mobility --- Immigrant Workers --- International Factor Movements and International Business: General --- Remittances --- Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- General Financial Markets: Government Policy and Regulation --- International economics --- Labour --- income economics --- Economic growth --- Finance --- Migrant labor --- Business cycles --- Income --- Procyclicality --- Balance of payments --- National accounts --- Financial sector policy and analysis --- International finance --- Financial risk management --- Lesotho, Kingdom of

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Earth sciences --- Climatic changes --- Climatic changes. --- Earth sciences. --- Geosciences --- Changes, Climatic --- Climate change --- Climate changes --- Climate variations --- Climatic change --- Climatic fluctuations --- Climatic variations --- Global climate changes --- Global climatic changes --- Environmental aspects --- Climatology --- Climate change mitigation --- Teleconnections (Climatology) --- Environmental sciences --- Physical sciences --- Changes in climate --- Climate change science --- Global environmental change

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This paper uses the standard one-sector neoclassical growth model to investigate why China's consumption has been low and investment high. It finds that the low cost of capital has been quantitatively an important factor. Theory predicts that the price of capital may have been significantly distorted in the 1990s and 2000s. The distortion could have been caused by nonperforming loans, borrowing constraints, and uncertainty over changes in government guidance in bank lending. If China is to rebalance growth towards relying more on consumption and less on exports and investment, banking sector reforms and financial market development could, therefore, turn out to be key.

Business cycles --- Economic development --- Capital market --- Consumption (Economics) --- Investments --- Finance --- Econometric models. --- China --- Economic policy. --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Cycles --- Banks and Banking --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: Financial Services --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- General Aggregative Models: General --- Banking --- Consumption --- Nonperforming loans --- Loans --- National accounts --- Economics --- Banks and banking --- National income --- China, People's Republic of