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Differential equations --- Classical mechanics. Field theory --- Differential equations, Nonlinear --- Nonlinear mechanics --- Équations différentielles non linéaires. --- Mécanique non linéaire. --- Differential equations, Nonlinear. --- Nonlinear mechanics. --- Mathematical Sciences --- Applied Mathematics --- Complex Analysis --- General and Others --- non-linear phenomena --- computational techniques --- differential equations --- Mechanics, Nonlinear --- Mechanics, Analytic --- Nonlinear differential equations --- Nonlinear theories --- Équations différentielles non linéaires. --- Mécanique non linéaire. --- Chaos Theory. --- Differential Equations. --- Mathematics --- Calculus --- Équations différentielles non linéaires --- Mécanique non linéaire
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This paper provides a how-to guide to model-based forecasting and monetary policy analysis. It describes a simple structural model, along the lines of those in use in a number of central banks. This workhorse model consists of an aggregate demand (or IS) curve, a price-setting (or Phillips) curve, a version of the uncovered interest parity condition, and a monetary policy reaction function. The paper discusses how to parameterize the model and use it for forecasting and policy analysis, illustrating with an application to Canada. It also introduces a set of useful software tools for conducting a model-consistent forecast.
Economic forecasting. --- Electronic books. -- local. --- Monetary policy. --- Finance --- Business & Economics --- International Finance --- Economics --- Monetary management --- Forecasting --- Economic indicators --- Economic policy --- Currency boards --- Money supply --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Monetary Policy --- Money and Interest Rates: Forecasting and Simulation --- Model Construction and Estimation --- Computational Techniques --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Energy: Demand and Supply --- Prices --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Output gap --- Oil prices --- Real exchange rates --- Exchange rates --- Production --- Economic theory --- United States
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The paper presents the basic Credit Risk+ model, and proposes some modifications. This model could be useful in the stress-testing financial sector assessments process as a benchmark for credit risk evaluations. First, we present the setting and basic definitions common to all the model specifications used in this paper. Then, we proceed from the simplest model based on Bernoulli-distributed default events and known default probabilities to the fully-fledged Credit Risk+ implementation. The latter is based on the Poisson approximation and uncertain default probabilities determined by mutually independent risk factors. As an extension we present a Credit Risk+ specification with correlated risk factors as in Giese (2003). Finally, we illustrate the characteristics and the results obtained from the different models using a specific portfolio of obligors.
Credit -- Management -- Mathematical models. --- Electronic books. -- local. --- Financial services industry -- State supervision. --- Finance --- Business & Economics --- Credit, Debt & Loans --- Credit --- Financial services industry --- Management --- Mathematical models. --- State supervision. --- Services, Financial --- Borrowing --- Service industries --- Money --- Loans --- Banks and Banking --- Econometrics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Portfolio Choice --- Investment Decisions --- Financial Institutions and Services: General --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Mathematical Methods and Programming: General --- Computational Techniques --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- Financing Policy --- Financial Risk and Risk Management --- Capital and Ownership Structure --- Value of Firms --- Goodwill --- Monetary economics --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Financial services law & regulation --- Vector autoregression --- Credit risk --- Financial risk management
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