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Practical Model-Based Monetary Policy Analysis : A How-To Guide
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ISBN: 1451863411 1462372015 1451908768 9786613822123 1452790515 1282545361 Year: 2006 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper provides a how-to guide to model-based forecasting and monetary policy analysis. It describes a simple structural model, along the lines of those in use in a number of central banks. This workhorse model consists of an aggregate demand (or IS) curve, a price-setting (or Phillips) curve, a version of the uncovered interest parity condition, and a monetary policy reaction function. The paper discusses how to parameterize the model and use it for forecasting and policy analysis, illustrating with an application to Canada. It also introduces a set of useful software tools for conducting a model-consistent forecast.


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Review and Implementation of Credit Risk Models of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP)
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ISBN: 1451863942 1462361919 1451909152 9786613824059 1452765286 1283511606 Year: 2006 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The paper presents the basic Credit Risk+ model, and proposes some modifications. This model could be useful in the stress-testing financial sector assessments process as a benchmark for credit risk evaluations. First, we present the setting and basic definitions common to all the model specifications used in this paper. Then, we proceed from the simplest model based on Bernoulli-distributed default events and known default probabilities to the fully-fledged Credit Risk+ implementation. The latter is based on the Poisson approximation and uncertain default probabilities determined by mutually independent risk factors. As an extension we present a Credit Risk+ specification with correlated risk factors as in Giese (2003). Finally, we illustrate the characteristics and the results obtained from the different models using a specific portfolio of obligors.

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