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This paper analyzes the relationship between fiscal adjustment and real GDP growth in a panel of 26 transition economies during 1992-2001. Unlike most previous studies using cross-country regressions, the paper finds a positive and statistically significant relationship between fiscal adjustment and growth that is robust to different model specifications and estimation methods. The paper also presents country experiences to delve deeper into the mechanisms that may underlie this statistical relationship.
Economic stabilization -- Developing countries. --- Electronic books. -- local. --- Fiscal policy -- Developing countries. --- Business & Economics --- Economic History --- Economic stabilization --- Fiscal policy --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Fiscal Policy --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Public finance & taxation --- Fiscal consolidation --- Government debt management --- Fiscal stance --- Structural reforms --- Debts, Public --- Russian Federation
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The paper reviews key macroeconomic challenges with EU accession in Southeastern Europe (SEE). Most of the countries in the region are years away from EU accession and need substantial progress to meet the key macroeconomic criteria-the establishment of a functioning market economy and macroeconomic stability. The former calls for further structural reforms. While macroeconomic stability is essential throughout the EU accession process, the importance of specific outcomes increases in the last stage of accession, when countries face decisions to apply for entry into the ERM2 and the Maastricht criteria (Bulgaria and Romania). The main challenges with establishing macroeconomic stability in other countries are related to sustainability of their monetary frameworks, risks from rapid financial deepening, and further fiscal consolidation to support growth and stabilization. Most of the SEE countries have room to lower public spending and increase the share of pro-growth spending.
Electronic books. -- local. --- Europe -- Economic integration. --- Monetary policy -- Europe. --- Finance --- Business & Economics --- Money --- Monetary policy --- Europe --- Economic integration. --- Monetary management --- Economic policy --- Currency boards --- Money supply --- Finance: General --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Public Finance --- Monetary Policy --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Fiscal Policy --- Price Level --- Deflation --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Monetary economics --- Exchange rate anchor --- Structural reforms --- Fiscal policy --- Competition --- Prices --- Romania
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The Maastricht inflation criterion, designed in the early 1990s to bring "high-inflation" EU countries in line with "low-inflation" countries prior to the introduction of the euro, poses challenges for both new EU member countries and the European Central Bank. While the criterion has positively influenced the public stance toward low inflation, it has biased the choice of the disinflation strategy toward short-run, fiat measures-rather than adopting structural reforms with longer-term benefits-with unpleasant consequences for the efficiency of the eurozone transmission mechanism. The criterion is also unnecessarily tight for new member countries as it mainly reflects cyclical developments.
Deflation (Finance) -- European Union countries. --- Electronic books. -- local. --- European Union countries -- Economic conditions. --- European Union countries -- Economic policy. --- Inflation (Finance) -- European Union countries. --- Finance --- Business & Economics --- Money --- Deflation (Finance) --- Inflation (Finance) --- European Union countries --- Economic conditions. --- Economic policy. --- Disinflation --- Natural rate of unemployment --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Output gap --- Exchange rates --- Structural reforms --- Prices --- Production --- Economic theory --- Hungary
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This paper compares the pattern of macroeconomic volatility in 17 Latin American countries during episodes of high and low growth since 1970, examining in particular the role of policy volatility. Macroeconomic outcomes are distinguished from macroeconomic policies, structural reforms and reversals, shocks, and institutional constraints. Based on previous work, a composite measure of structural reforms is constructed for the 1970-2004 period. We find that outcomes and policies are more volatile in low growth episodes, while shocks (except U.S. interest rates) are similar across episodes. Fiscal policy volatility is associated with lower growth, but fiscal policy procyclicality is not. Low levels of market-oriented reforms and structural reform reversals are also associated with lower growth.
Business cycles --- Latin America --- Economic policy. --- Economic conditions. --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Cycles --- Banks and Banking --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics: General --- Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy --- Stabilization --- Treasury Policy --- Economic History: Macroeconomics --- Growth and Fluctuations: Latin America --- Caribbean --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- Fiscal Policy --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Finance --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Structural reforms --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Fiscal policy --- Real interest rates --- Currency crises --- Macrostructural analysis --- Financial services --- Financial crises --- Interest rates --- Venezuela, República Bolivariana de
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The staff report for the Stand-By Arrangement on Paraguay highlights the request for a two-month extension by the authorities. The authorities are not requesting any change in the cumulative access under the arrangement and intend to continue to treat it as precautionary. The policy of publication of staff reports and other documents allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information. The continuous performance criteria on the nonaccumulation of arrears and noncontracting of short-term external debt appear to have been met.
Conditionality (International relations) --- Political conditionality --- International relations --- Economic assistance --- Loans, Foreign --- Paraguay --- Dēmokratia tēs Paragouaēs --- Lýðveldið Paraguei --- Pâ-lâ-kûi --- Paragaĭmudin Orn --- Paragoayi --- Paragouaē --- Paragua --- Paraguai --- Paraguaidh --- Paraguay Vabariik --- Paraguei --- Paragvæ --- Paragvaĭ --- Paragvaj --- Paragvaja Respubliko --- Paragvajo --- Pʻaragwai --- Parahvaĭ --- Paraqvay --- Parawayi --- Parawayi Republika --- Pharaguay --- Pobblaght ny Paraguay --- Republic of Paraguay --- República del Paraguay --- Republika Paragvaĭ --- Republika Paragvaj --- République du Paraguay --- Rėspublika Parahvaĭ --- Tetã Paraguái --- Παραγουάη --- Δημοκρατία της Παραγουάης --- Рэспубліка Парагвай --- Република Парагвай --- Парагаймудин Орн --- Парагвай --- パラグアイ --- 파라과이 --- Economic conditions --- Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Fiscal Policy --- Nonprofit Organizations and Public Enterprise: General --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Institutions and the Macroeconomy --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Public ownership --- nationalization --- Banking --- International economics --- Macro-fiscal framework --- Public enterprises --- Structural reforms --- External debt --- Fiscal policy --- Economic sectors --- Macrostructural analysis --- Arrears --- Government business enterprises --- Banks and banking --- Debts, External --- Nationalization
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