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Trends in inflation research
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ISBN: 1594548250 1613240473 9781613240472 9781594548253 Year: 2006 Publisher: New York : Nova Science Publishers,

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The role of policymakers in business cycle fluctuations
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ISBN: 9780511510540 9780521860161 9780521390767 0511169280 9780511169281 0511510543 0521860164 0521390761 1107156432 1280449233 0511168853 051116789X 0511312547 0511168411 Year: 2006 Publisher: Cambridge : Cambridge University Press,

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This book's central theme is that a policymaker's role is to enhance the public's ability to coordinate their price information, price expectations, and economic activities. This role is fulfilled when policymakers maintain inflation stability. Inflation persists less when an implicit or explicit inflation target is met. Granato and Wong argue that inflation persistence is reduced when the public substitutes the prespecified inflation target for past inflation. A by-product of this co-ordination process is greater economic stability. In particular, inflation stability contributes to greater economic output stability, including the potential for the simultaneous reduction of both inflation and output variability - inflation-output co-stabilization (IOCS). Granato and Wong use historical, formal, and applied statistical analysis of business-cycle performance in the United States for the 1960 to 2000 period. They find that during periods when policymakers emphasize inflation stability, inflation uncertainty and persistence were reduced.

The grammar of profit : the price revolution in intellectual context
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ISBN: 9004149589 9786611398835 1281398837 904740890X 9789047408901 9789004149588 9781281398833 661139883X Year: 2006 Volume: 138 Publisher: Leiden ; Boston : Brill,

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This study explores the relationship between the prevailing concept of 'just profit' and contemporary reactions to the Sixteenth-Century Price Revolution by tracing the evolving meaning of 'profit' in religious, political, and social discourse. Using the period's own macrocosmic-microcosmic analogy, the book examines family correspondence, wills, and court cases in addition to formal tracts to move outward from issues of spiritual profit to family values, employment relationships, and church and state. While England's experience provides a focal point, extensive use of continental sources reveals the problem's broader context. This study should prove particularly useful to those wishing to knit together the now particularized and separated strands of early modern economic, political, social, and religious history.


Book
Why Do Prices in Sierra Leone Change So Often? A Case Study Using Micro-level Price Data
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ISBN: 1451863136 1462376045 1451908490 9786613829337 1451989369 1283516888 Year: 2006 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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We use cross-section and time-series techniques to analyze pricing behavior in Sierra Leone. In cross-sectional data, we find that inflation volatility and product diversification are the main factors explaining differences in the frequency of price adjustments. We show that variance in the fraction of prices subject to change is a key determinant of inflation volatility in Sierra Leone, indicating that retail prices are sensitive to economic events. We explain variations in this fraction over time with past inflation and monetary growth, which are important policy variables.


Book
Stabilizing Inflation in Iceland
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ISBN: 1451865228 1462324568 1451909756 9786613827173 1452729956 1283514729 Year: 2006 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper provides some empirical estimates on how tightly is it feasible to control inflation in a very small open economy such as Iceland. Estimated macroeconomic models of Canada, Iceland, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and the United States are used to derive efficient monetary policy frontiers that trace out the locus of the lowest combinations of inflation and output variability that are achievable under a range of alternative monetary policy rules. These frontiers illustrate that inflation stabilization is more challenging in Iceland than in other industrial countries primarily because of the relative magnitudes of the economic shocks.


Book
The Difference Between Hedonic Imputation Indexes and Time Dummy Hedonic Indexes
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ISBN: 1451864418 1462360904 1451988206 9786613823304 1452725926 1283071088 Year: 2006 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Statistical offices try to match item models when measuring inflation between two periods. For product areas with a high turnover of differentiated models, however, the use of hedonic indexes is more appropriate since they include the prices and quantities of unmatched new and old models. The two main approaches to hedonic indexes are hedonic imputation (HI) indexes and dummy time hedonic (DTH) indexes. This study provides a formal analysis of the difference between the two approaches for alternative implementations of the Törnqvist "superlative" index. It shows why the results may differ and discusses the issue of choice between these approaches.


Book
Inflation, Inequality, and Social Conflict
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ISBN: 1451864183 1462387136 145198393X 9786613828217 1452776377 1283515768 Year: 2006 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper presents and then tests a political economy model to analyze the observed positive relationship between income inequality and inflation. The model's key features are unequal access to both inflation-hedging opportunities and the political process. The model predicts that inequality and 'elite bias' in the political system interact to create incentives for inflation. The paper's empirical section focuses on this predicted interaction effect. The identification strategy involves using the end of the Cold War as a source of exogenous variation in the political environment. It finds robust evidence in support of the model.


Book
The Role of Seasonality and Monetary Policy in Inflation Forecasting
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ISBN: 1451864353 1462375022 1451987102 9786613822376 1451983301 1282558242 Year: 2006 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Adequate modeling of the seasonal structure of consumer prices is essential for inflation forecasting. This paper suggests a new econometric approach for jointly determining inflation forecasts and monetary policy stances, particularly where seasonal fluctuations of economic activity and prices are pronounced. In an application of the framework, the paper characterizes and investigates the stability of the seasonal pattern of consumer prices in the Kyrgyz Republic and estimates optimal money growth and implied exchange rate paths along with a jointly determined inflation forecast. The approach uses two broad specifications of an augmented error-correction model-with and without seasonal components. Findings from the paper confirm empirical superiority (in terms of information content and contributions to policymaking) of augmented error-correction models of inflation over single-equation, Box-Jenkins-type general autoregressive seasonal models. Simulations of the estimated errorcorrection models yield optimal monetary policy paths for achieving inflation targets and demonstrate the empirical significance of seasonality and monetary policy in inflation forecasting.


Book
Inflation in Pakistan : Money or Wheat?
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1451863209 1462349811 1451908563 9786613829894 1452716854 1283517442 Year: 2006 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper examines the relative importance of monetary factors and structuralist supply-side factors for inflation in Pakistan. A stylized inflation model is specified that includes standard monetary variables (money supply, credit to the private sector), the exchange rate, as well as the wheat support price as a supply-side factor that has received considerable attention in Pakistan. The model is estimated for the period January 1998 to June 2005 on a monthly basis. The results indicate that monetary factors have played a dominant role in recent inflation, affecting inflation with a lag of about one year. Changes in the wheat support price influence inflation in the short run, but not in the long run. Furthermore, the wheat support price matters only over the medium term if accommodated by monetary policy.


Book
The Maastricht Inflation Criterion : How Unpleasant Is Purgatory?
Authors: --- --- ---
ISBN: 1451864140 1462366953 1451909209 9786613829146 1452708770 1283516691 Year: 2006 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The Maastricht inflation criterion, designed in the early 1990s to bring "high-inflation" EU countries in line with "low-inflation" countries prior to the introduction of the euro, poses challenges for both new EU member countries and the European Central Bank. While the criterion has positively influenced the public stance toward low inflation, it has biased the choice of the disinflation strategy toward short-run, fiat measures-rather than adopting structural reforms with longer-term benefits-with unpleasant consequences for the efficiency of the eurozone transmission mechanism. The criterion is also unnecessarily tight for new member countries as it mainly reflects cyclical developments.

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