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The credit default swap basis.
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ISBN: 1576602362 9781576602362 Year: 2006 Publisher: New York Bloomberg Press

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The Pricing of Credit Default Swaps During Distress
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ISBN: 1451865147 1462364934 1451909675 9786613827548 1452700699 1283515091 Year: 2006 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Credit default swaps (CDS) provide the buyer with insurance against certain types of credit events by entitling him to exchange any of the bonds permitted as deliverable against their par value. Unlike bonds, whose risk spreads are assumed to be the product of default risk and loss rate, CDS are par instruments, and their spreads reflect the partial recovery of the delivered bond's face value. This paper addresses the implications of the difference between bond and CDS spreads and shows the extent to which the recovery assumption matters for determining CDS spreads. A no-arbitrage argument is applied to extract recovery rates from CDS and bond markets, using data from Brazil's distress in 2002-03. Results are related to the observation that preemptive restructurings are now more common than straight defaults in sovereign bond markets and that this leads to a decoupling of CDS and bond spreads.


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Lending Resumption After Default : Lessons from Capital Markets During the 19th Century
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ISBN: 1451864361 1462321550 145198717X 9786613820938 1452758212 1282447289 Year: 2006 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper mines the experience of capital markets during the 19th century to propose an alternative way of interpreting international default episodes. The standard view is that defaulting on sovereign debt entails exclusion from capital markets. Yet we have observed multiple instances of sovereign debt default in which the reaction of lenders was not the one predicted by the punishment story: in some cases, lending ceased for long periods, but in others it was not interrupted. This paper claims that the reaction of lenders after default stems from the additional knowledge about the borrower that lenders acquire during these episodes. The lending relationship is modeled in a costly state-verification environment in which governments have private information about their investment projects (good or bad). It is shown that, in the event of default, it is worthwhile for lenders to find out more about the type of project, and then interrupt lending only if the project is believed to be a bad one.


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Market-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities and its Application to Financial Market Surveillance
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ISBN: 1451863640 1462375030 1451908989 9786613827944 1452793530 1283515490 Year: 2006 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper reviews a number of different techniques for estimating default probabilities from the prices of publicly traded securities. These techniques are useful for assessing credit exposure, systemic risk, and stress testing financial systems. The choice of techniques was guided by their ease of implementation and their applicability to a wide cross-section of countries and markets. Simple one-period cases are studied to sharpen the reader's intuition, and the usefulness of each technique for enhancing financial surveillance is illustrated with real applications.


Book
Distance-to-Default in Banking : A Bridge Too Far?
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ISBN: 1451864752 1462351816 1451909284 9786613824097 1452777381 1283511649 Year: 2006 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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In contrast to corporate defaults, regulators typically take a number of statutory actions to avoid the large fiscal costs associated with bank defaults. The distance-to-default, a widely used market-based measure of corporate default risk, ignores such regulatory actions. To overcome this limitation, this paper introduces the concept of distance-to-capital that accounts for pre-default regulatory actions such as those in a prompt-corrective-actions framework. We show that both risk measures can be analyzed using the same theoretical framework but differ depending on the level of capital adequacy thresholds and asset volatility. We also use the framework to illustrate pre-default regulatory actions in Japan in 2001-03.


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Currency Mismatches and Corporate Default Risk : Modeling, Measurement, and Surveillance Applications
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ISBN: 1451865295 1462342736 1451909829 9786613828835 1452774358 1283516381 Year: 2006 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Currency mismatches in corporate balance sheets have been singled out as an important factor underlying the severity of recent financial crises. We propose several structural models for measuring default risk for firms with currency mismatches in their asset/liability structure. The proposed models can be adapted to different exchange rate regimes, are analytically tractable, and can be estimated using available equity price and balance sheet data. The paper provides a detailed explanation on how to calibrate the models and discusses two applications to financial surveillance: the measurement of systematic risk in the corporate sector and the estimation of prudential leverage ratios consistent with regulatory capital ratios in the banking sector.


Book
Is Systematic Default Risk Priced in Equity Returns? A Cross-Sectional Analysis Using Credit Derivatives Prices
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ISBN: 1451864086 1462374026 1452702543 9786613820563 1452753172 1282392131 Year: 2006 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper finds that systematic default risk, or the event of widespread defaults in the corporate sector, is an important determinant of equity returns. Moreover, the market price of systematic default risk is one order of magnitude higher than the market price of other risk factors. In contrast to studies by Fama and French (1993, 1996 ) and Vassalou and Xing (2004), this paper uses a market-based measure of systematic default risk. The measure is constructed using price information from credit derivatives prices, namely the spreads of standardized single-tranche collateralized debt obligations on credit derivatives indices.

Keywords

Corporations -- Valuation -- Econometric models. --- Credit derivatives -- Prices -- Econometric models. --- Default (Finance) -- Econometric models. --- Electronic books. -- local. --- Risk -- Econometric models. --- Finance --- Business & Economics --- Investment & Speculation --- Corporations --- Credit derivatives --- Default (Finance) --- Risk --- Valuation --- Econometric models. --- Prices --- Business corporations --- C corporations --- Corporations, Business --- Corporations, Public --- Limited companies --- Publicly held corporations --- Publicly traded corporations --- Public limited companies --- Stock corporations --- Subchapter C corporations --- Economics --- Uncertainty --- Probabilities --- Profit --- Risk-return relationships --- Finance, Public --- Repudiation --- Derivative securities --- Business enterprises --- Corporate power --- Disincorporation --- Stocks --- Trusts, Industrial --- Corporate Finance --- Exports and Imports --- Investments: Stocks --- Money and Monetary Policy --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Pension Funds --- Non-bank Financial Institutions --- Financial Instruments --- Institutional Investors --- Corporate Finance and Governance: General --- International economics --- Monetary economics --- Investment & securities --- Ownership & organization of enterprises --- Debt default --- Credit default swap --- Credit --- Corporate sector --- Debts, External --- United States


Book
Fundamentals-Based Estimation of Default Probabilities - A Survey
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1451864094 146234173X 145270256X 9786613820679 1452751153 1282392247 Year: 2006 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This survey reviews a number of different fundamentals-based models for estimating default probabilities for firms and/or industries, and illustrates them with real applications by practitioners and policy making institutions. The models are especially useful when the firms analyzed do not have publicly traded securities or secondary market prices are unreliable because of low liquidity.

Sovereign default risk valuation : implications of debt crises and bond restructurings
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ISBN: 9783540374480 3540374485 9786610727377 1280727373 3540374493 Year: 2006 Volume: 582 Publisher: Berlin : Springer,

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Past cycles of sovereign lending and default in emerging markets suggest that debt crises will recur at some point. In addressing debt crises it has proven helpful to distinguish between situations of illiquidity and insolvency. Solutions range from a voluntary debt swap to a soft or hard restructuring. This book shows why investors should reckon with similar credit events in the future. Insights gained from recent restructurings inspire the design of a valuation model for sovereign bonds. Using the distinction between hard and soft restructurings, the model draws parallels to the concepts of face value and market value recovery. An extension into credit default swap markets explains why bond and CDS spreads diverge during distress. This survey of the sovereign bond market provides investors with a useful toolkit for analyzing sovereign bonds and foreseeing trends in the international financial architecture. The result should be a better understanding of debt crises and more deliberate investment decisions.

Keywords

Government securities --- Financial risk --- Debts, Public --- Default (Finance) --- Effets publics --- Risque financier --- Dettes publiques --- Défaillance (Finances) --- Valuation --- Evaluation --- Banks and banking. --- Debts, Public. --- Default (Finance). --- Development Economic policy. --- Economics. --- Finance. --- Financial risk. --- Government securities. --- Investment & Speculation --- Finance --- Business & Economics --- Mathematical models --- AA / International- internationaal --- 336.311.2 --- 339.115 --- 336.312.3 --- Buitenlandse leningen van de overheid. --- Buitenlandse schuld. Debt Equity Swap in LDC. --- Solvabiliteit, kredietwaardigheid van de landen. Risicolanden. --- Défaillance (Finances) --- EPUB-LIV-FT LIVECONO LIVGESTI SPRINGER-B --- Debts, Government --- Government debts --- National debts --- Public debt --- Public debts --- Sovereign debt --- Mathematics. --- Management science. --- Macroeconomics. --- Public finance. --- Economic policy. --- Economics, general. --- Mathematics, general. --- Finance, general. --- Macroeconomics/Monetary Economics//Financial Economics. --- Public Economics. --- Economic Policy. --- Finance, Public --- Repudiation --- Debt --- Bonds --- Deficit financing --- Economic nationalism --- Economic planning --- National planning --- State planning --- Economics --- Planning --- National security --- Social policy --- Cameralistics --- Public finance --- Currency question --- Funding --- Funds --- Math --- Science --- Economic theory --- Political economy --- Social sciences --- Economic man --- Government agency securities --- Government bonds --- Public securities --- Treasuries (Securities) --- Treasury bonds --- Securities --- Business risk (Finance) --- Money risk (Finance) --- Risk --- Valuation&delete& --- Buitenlandse leningen van de overheid --- Solvabiliteit, kredietwaardigheid van de landen. Risicolanden --- Buitenlandse schuld. Debt Equity Swap in LDC --- Public finances --- Quantitative business analysis --- Management --- Problem solving --- Operations research --- Statistical decision --- Mathematical models.

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