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This paper presents key findings of debt sustainability analysis (DSA) for Ethiopia. The stress tests reveal that Ethiopia’s external debt and debt service indicators are particularly sensitive to the terms of new borrowing and negative export shocks. The baseline projections appear fragile to adverse shocks and embody optimistic assumptions relative to Ethiopia’s historical trend over the past 10 years. The public debt DSA indicates some risk arising from output growth and the primary balance remaining at historical averages.

Debts, Public --- Debts, External --- Debts, External. --- Debts, Public. --- Debts, Government --- Government debts --- National debts --- Public debt --- Public debts --- Sovereign debt --- Debt --- Bonds --- Deficit financing --- Debts, Foreign --- Debts, International --- External debts --- Foreign debts --- International debts --- International finance --- Investments, Foreign --- Ethiopia --- Economic conditions --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Fiscal Policy --- Trade: General --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- External debt --- Fiscal stance --- Exports --- Debt sustainability analysis --- Fiscal policy --- International trade --- Ethiopia, The Federal Democratic Republic of