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This paper identifies and describes key features of Caribbean business cycles during the period 1963-2003. In particular, the chronologies in the Caribbean classical cycle (expansions and contractions in the level of output) and growth cycle (periods of above-trend and below-trend rates of economic growth) are identified. It is found that Caribbean classical cycles are longer-lived than those of developed countries and non-Caribbean developing countries. While there are large asymmetries in the duration and amplitude of phases in the Caribbean classical cycle, on both measures the Caribbean growth cycle is much more symmetric. Further, there is some evidence of synchronization among the classical cycles of Caribbean countries, and stronger evidence of synchronization of Caribbean growth cycles.

Business cycles --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Cycles --- Cariribean Area --- Economic policy. --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Economic growth --- Output gap --- Production growth --- Production --- Economic theory --- United States

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This volume is the second edition of the first-ever elementary book on the Langevin equation method for the solution of problems involving the Brownian motion in a potential, with emphasis on modern applications in the natural sciences, electrical engineering and so on. It has been substantially enlarged to cover in a succinct manner a number of new topics, such as anomalous diffusion, continuous time random walks, stochastic resonance etc, which are of major current interest in view of the large number of disparate physical systems exhibiting these phenomena. The book has been written in suc

Langevin equations. --- Brownian motion processes. --- Wiener processes --- Brownian movements --- Fluctuations (Physics) --- Markov processes --- Langevin's equations --- Stochastic differential equations

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Orogeny. --- Orogenic belts. --- Paleomagnetism. --- Geology, Structural. --- 551.242 --- Tectonic movements, fluctuations etc. Crust movements. Tectonic structures and their elements --- 551.242 Tectonic movements, fluctuations etc. Crust movements. Tectonic structures and their elements --- Geology, Structural --- Orogenic belts --- Orogeny --- Paleomagnetism --- Magnetostratigraphy --- Paleomagnetics --- Remanent magnetism --- Geomagnetism --- Mountain building --- Orogenesis --- Tectogenesis --- Belts, Fold --- Belts, Orogenic --- Fold belts --- Foldbelts --- Orogenes --- Orogens --- Geotectonics --- Structural geology --- Tectonics (Geology) --- Physical geology --- Palaeomagnetism

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Our answer: Not so well. We reached that conclusion after reviewing recent research on the role of technology as a source of economic fluctuations. The bulk of the evidence suggests a limited role for aggregate technology shocks, pointing instead to demand factors as the main force behind the strong positive comovement between output and labor input measures.

Business cycles --- Technological innovations --- Economic aspects --- United States --- Economic conditions --- Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Innovation --- Research and Development --- Technological Change --- Intellectual Property Rights: General --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Labor Economics: General --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Technology --- general issues --- Economic growth --- Labour --- income economics --- Labor --- Labor productivity --- Sticky prices --- Production --- Prices --- Labor economics

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The output gap-which measures the deviation of actual output from its potential-is frequently used as an indicator of slack in an economy. This paper estimates the Finnish output gap using various empirical methods. It evaluates these methods against economic history and each other by a simulated out-of-sample forecasting exercise for Finnish CPI inflation. Only two gap measures, stemming from a frequency domain approach and the Blanchard-Quah decomposition, perform better than the naïve prediction of no change in inflation-but do not improve upon a simple autoregressive forecast. The pronounced volatility of output in Finland makes it particularly difficult to estimate potential output, producing considerable uncertainty about the size (and sign) of the gap.

Input-output analysis --- Economic forecasting --- Interindustry economics --- Economics, Mathematical --- National income --- Input-output tables --- Accounting --- Inflation --- Labor --- Production and Operations Management --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Production --- Cost --- Capital and Total Factor Productivity --- Capacity --- Macroeconomics --- Labour --- income economics --- Output gap --- Potential output --- Unemployment rate --- Total factor productivity --- Prices --- Economic theory --- Unemployment --- Industrial productivity --- Finland