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2004 (30)

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Book
Missing Link : Volatility and the Debt Intolerance Paradox
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462382312 145275229X 1281345431 9786613779007 1451894163 Year: 2004 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

A striking feature of sovereign lending is that many countries with moderate debt-to-income ratios systematically face higher spreads and more stringent borrowing constraints than others with far higher debt ratios. Earlier research has rationalized the phenomenon in terms of sovereign reputation and countries' distinct credit histories. This paper provides theoretical and empirical evidence to show that differences in underlying macroeconomic volatility are key. While volatility increases the need for international borrowing to help smooth domestic consumption, the ability to borrow is constrained by the higher default risk that volatility engenders.


Book
Guinea : Statistical Appendix.
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1455278351 1451992726 1280884924 1451880650 9786613726230 Year: 2004 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.


Book
France : Selected Issues.
Authors: ---
ISBN: 146234741X 1452706220 1280976578 9786613748188 1452761965 Year: 2004 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This Selected Issues paper on France underlies public intervention in financial markets. Econometric analysis indicates that in the long term, consumption tracks disposable income closely but is also affected by wealth effects. A counterfactual exercise suggests that a lower return to experience could be responsible for lower early wage growth in France. Increased training could enhance the employment experience of the low-skilled young worker in France provided that its cost is shared between the employer and the employee.


Book
Bhutan : Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper.
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462365620 1452705178 1280893354 9786613734662 1452745854 Year: 2004 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper discusses Bhutan’s Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP). The Royal Government of Bhutan has initiated the PRSP process as part of broader ongoing efforts to combat poverty. The main objective of the PRSP process is to strengthen the strategic framework for poverty reduction, improve donor coordination, and build support for new initiatives in public expenditure management and poverty monitoring and evaluation. The envisaged process builds directly on the Ninth Five-Year Plan (Ninth Plan).


Book
Solomon Islands : Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix.
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462323065 1452737851 1283560763 1452737649 9786613873217 Year: 2004 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This Selected Issues paper examines prospects for increasing growth and reducing poverty in the Solomon Islands. The paper highlights that agriculture constitutes the largest sector of the Solomon Islands economy, averaging about 20 percent of GDP throughout the 1990s. The Solomon Islands also has large fish resources, and the fisheries sector accounted for an average of 7 percent of GDP and 30 percent of total exports in the 1990s. The paper also examines the state of the financial sector in the Solomon Islands.


Book
Economic Integration, Sectoral Diversification, and Exchange Rate Policy in a Developing Economy
Author:
ISBN: 1462335888 145276641X 128160027X 1451894899 9786613780966 Year: 2004 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

The paper develops a simple three-sector model of a developing country with nominal wage rigidity, in which one sector is thought of as the primary sector and the other two are sectors in which the country can diversify. The paper then analyzes the relationship between the market structure of the nonprimary sectors and equilibrium adjustments to shocks in the primary sector. In particular, the paper examines under what conditions the country should promote one nonprimary sector over another. Among other things, it argues that developing countries should promote those sectors that are more integrated with the outside world.


Book
Does Spousal Labor Smooth Fluctuations in Husbands’ Earnings? The Role of Liquidity Constraints
Author:
ISBN: 1462306691 145271195X 1281155403 9786613776761 1451891687 Year: 2004 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper theoretically and empirically investigates the role of spousal labor in buffering transitory shocks to husbands' earnings. To measure the amount of the shock that spousal labor absorbs, an instrumented cross-sectional variance decomposition is developed. Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, the paper finds that the smoothing resulting from the wives' labor response (both labor force participation and hours of work) is larger for households with limited access to credit. This finding, which is consistent with the model's prediction, indicates that because of the presence of liquidity constraints, the temporal change in family income (exclusive of wives' earnings) reinforces the substitution effect in explaining the effect of shocks to the husbands' earnings on spousal labor.


Book
Understanding India’s Services Revolution
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462322611 1452791562 1282107127 1451903782 9786613800473 Year: 2004 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper analyzes the factors behind the recent growth of India's services sector. The high growth of services output in the 1990s was mostly due to the rapid expansion of communication, banking, business services (including the IT sector) and community services. While factors such as a high income elasticity of demand for services, increasing input usage of services by other sectors, and rising exports, were important in boosting services growth in the 1990s, supply side factors including reforms and technological advances also played significant roles. Going forward, the growth potential of Indian services exports is well known, but the paper also finds considerable scope for growth in the Indian service economy provided that deregulation continues. In addition, the paper shows that employment growth in the Indian services sector has been quite modest, thus underscoring the need for industry and agriculture to also grow rapidly.


Book
Regional Economic Disparities in Australia
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462326676 1452790574 1282036629 1451901623 9786613796929 Year: 2004 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

Australia's remarkable economic performance during the 1990s has not resulted in a significant convergence of real per capita income, output, and employment levels across the country's states and territories. This paper explores the role of certain economic rigidities that may have contributed to the lack of convergence, including rigidities in labor markets and in the structure of federal government transfers to households and subnational governments. The analysis suggests that the wage awards system has restricted the adjustment of real wages to productivity differentials, thus contributing to higher unemployment rates in some states. Federal government transfers to households also appear to have adversely affected work incentives in high unemployment states by limiting participation in the labor force.


Book
What Determines Long-Run Macroeconomic Stability? Democratic Institutions
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462343600 1452733899 1283512793 1451919662 9786613825247 Year: 2004 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

We examine the deep determinants of long-run macroeconomic stability in a cross-country framework. We find that conflict, openness, and democratic political institutions have a strong and statistically significant causal impact on macroeconomic stability. Surprisingly the most robust relationship of the three is for democratic institutions. A one standard deviation increase in democracy can reduce nominal instability nearly fourfold. This impact is robust to alternative measures of democracy, samples, covariates, and definitions of conflict. It is particularly noteworthy that a variety of nominal pathologies discussed in the recent macroeconomic literature, such as procyclical policy, original sin, and debt intolerance, have common origins in weak democratic institutions. We also find evidence that democratic institutions both strongly influence monetary policy and have a strong, independent positive effect on stability after controlling for various policy variables.

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