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A striking feature of sovereign lending is that many countries with moderate debt-to-income ratios systematically face higher spreads and more stringent borrowing constraints than others with far higher debt ratios. Earlier research has rationalized the phenomenon in terms of sovereign reputation and countries' distinct credit histories. This paper provides theoretical and empirical evidence to show that differences in underlying macroeconomic volatility are key. While volatility increases the need for international borrowing to help smooth domestic consumption, the ability to borrow is constrained by the higher default risk that volatility engenders.
Debts, External --- Business cycles --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Cycles --- Developing countries --- Economic conditions. --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Debt default --- Consumption --- Public debt --- Income --- Debt burden --- Economics --- Debts, Public --- United States
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In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
Banks and Banking --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Trade: General --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- National Government Expenditures and Related Policies: General --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Public finance & taxation --- International economics --- Banking --- Imports --- Income --- Public expenditure review --- Public debt --- International trade --- National accounts --- Expenditure --- Exports --- Expenditures, Public --- Banks and banking --- Debts, Public --- Guinea
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This Selected Issues paper on France underlies public intervention in financial markets. Econometric analysis indicates that in the long term, consumption tracks disposable income closely but is also affected by wealth effects. A counterfactual exercise suggests that a lower return to experience could be responsible for lower early wage growth in France. Increased training could enhance the employment experience of the low-skilled young worker in France provided that its cost is shared between the employer and the employee.
Banks and Banking --- Inflation --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Labour --- income economics --- Banking --- Finance --- Monetary economics --- Consumption --- Central bank policy rate --- Income --- Wages --- Disposable income --- National accounts --- Financial services --- Economics --- Interest rates --- Labor market --- France
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This paper discusses Bhutan’s Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP). The Royal Government of Bhutan has initiated the PRSP process as part of broader ongoing efforts to combat poverty. The main objective of the PRSP process is to strengthen the strategic framework for poverty reduction, improve donor coordination, and build support for new initiatives in public expenditure management and poverty monitoring and evaluation. The envisaged process builds directly on the Ninth Five-Year Plan (Ninth Plan).
Budgeting --- Macroeconomics --- Poverty and Homelessness --- Demography --- Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty: General --- Education: General --- Health: General --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- National Budget --- Budget Systems --- Demographic Economics: General --- Poverty & precarity --- Education --- Health economics --- Budgeting & financial management --- Population & demography --- Poverty --- Health --- Income --- Budget planning and preparation --- Population and demographics --- National accounts --- Budget --- Population --- Bhutan
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This Selected Issues paper examines prospects for increasing growth and reducing poverty in the Solomon Islands. The paper highlights that agriculture constitutes the largest sector of the Solomon Islands economy, averaging about 20 percent of GDP throughout the 1990s. The Solomon Islands also has large fish resources, and the fisheries sector accounted for an average of 7 percent of GDP and 30 percent of total exports in the 1990s. The paper also examines the state of the financial sector in the Solomon Islands.
Banks and Banking --- Macroeconomics --- Agribusiness --- Industries: Financial Services --- Public Finance --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Agricultural Markets and Marketing --- Cooperatives --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- Banking --- Agriculture, agribusiness & food production industries --- Finance --- Public finance & taxation --- Income --- Commercial banks --- Agroindustries --- Loans --- National accounts --- Financial institutions --- Economic sectors --- Public debt --- Banks and banking --- Agricultural industries --- Debts, Public --- Solomon Islands
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The paper develops a simple three-sector model of a developing country with nominal wage rigidity, in which one sector is thought of as the primary sector and the other two are sectors in which the country can diversify. The paper then analyzes the relationship between the market structure of the nonprimary sectors and equilibrium adjustments to shocks in the primary sector. In particular, the paper examines under what conditions the country should promote one nonprimary sector over another. Among other things, it argues that developing countries should promote those sectors that are more integrated with the outside world.
Foreign exchange rates --- Monetary policy --- Monetary management --- Economic policy --- Currency boards --- Money supply --- Exchange rates --- Fixed exchange rates --- Flexible exchange rates --- Floating exchange rates --- Fluctuating exchange rates --- Foreign exchange --- Rates of exchange --- Econometric models. --- Rates --- Exports and Imports --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Labor Economics: General --- Trade: General --- Labour --- income economics --- International economics --- Wages --- Income --- Real wages --- Exports --- Labor economics --- Indonesia
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This paper theoretically and empirically investigates the role of spousal labor in buffering transitory shocks to husbands' earnings. To measure the amount of the shock that spousal labor absorbs, an instrumented cross-sectional variance decomposition is developed. Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, the paper finds that the smoothing resulting from the wives' labor response (both labor force participation and hours of work) is larger for households with limited access to credit. This finding, which is consistent with the model's prediction, indicates that because of the presence of liquidity constraints, the temporal change in family income (exclusive of wives' earnings) reinforces the substitution effect in explaining the effect of shocks to the husbands' earnings on spousal labor.
Married women --- Women --- Liquidity (Economics) --- Assets, Frozen --- Frozen assets --- Finance --- Human females --- Wimmin --- Woman --- Womon --- Womyn --- Females --- Human beings --- Femininity --- Married people --- Wives --- Employment --- Economic aspects --- Econometric models. --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Labor Economics: General --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Labour --- income economics --- Monetary economics --- Wages --- Income --- Credit --- Labor supply --- Labor economics --- Labor market --- United States
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This paper analyzes the factors behind the recent growth of India's services sector. The high growth of services output in the 1990s was mostly due to the rapid expansion of communication, banking, business services (including the IT sector) and community services. While factors such as a high income elasticity of demand for services, increasing input usage of services by other sectors, and rising exports, were important in boosting services growth in the 1990s, supply side factors including reforms and technological advances also played significant roles. Going forward, the growth potential of Indian services exports is well known, but the paper also finds considerable scope for growth in the Indian service economy provided that deregulation continues. In addition, the paper shows that employment growth in the Indian services sector has been quite modest, thus underscoring the need for industry and agriculture to also grow rapidly.
Exports and Imports --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Agribusiness --- Industries: Service --- Industries: General --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Industry Studies: Services: General --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Trade: General --- Agriculture: General --- Industrial Organization: General --- International economics --- Agricultural economics --- Labour --- income economics --- Services sector --- Income --- Service exports --- Agricultural sector --- Economic sectors --- National accounts --- International trade --- Industrial sector --- Service industries --- Exports --- Agricultural industries --- Economic theory --- Industries --- India
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Australia's remarkable economic performance during the 1990s has not resulted in a significant convergence of real per capita income, output, and employment levels across the country's states and territories. This paper explores the role of certain economic rigidities that may have contributed to the lack of convergence, including rigidities in labor markets and in the structure of federal government transfers to households and subnational governments. The analysis suggests that the wage awards system has restricted the adjustment of real wages to productivity differentials, thus contributing to higher unemployment rates in some states. Federal government transfers to households also appear to have adversely affected work incentives in high unemployment states by limiting participation in the labor force.
Labor supply --- Income --- Unemployment --- Joblessness --- Employment (Economic theory) --- Full employment policies --- Manpower policy --- Underemployment --- Family income --- Fortunes --- Household income --- Personal income --- Economics --- Finance --- Property --- Wealth --- Gross national product --- Profit --- Purchasing power --- Labor force --- Labor force participation --- Labor pool --- Work force --- Workforce --- Labor market --- Human capital --- Labor mobility --- Manpower --- Regional disparities. --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Labor Economics: General --- Labour --- income economics --- Unemployment rate --- Production growth --- Production --- Economic theory --- Labor economics --- Australia
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We examine the deep determinants of long-run macroeconomic stability in a cross-country framework. We find that conflict, openness, and democratic political institutions have a strong and statistically significant causal impact on macroeconomic stability. Surprisingly the most robust relationship of the three is for democratic institutions. A one standard deviation increase in democracy can reduce nominal instability nearly fourfold. This impact is robust to alternative measures of democracy, samples, covariates, and definitions of conflict. It is particularly noteworthy that a variety of nominal pathologies discussed in the recent macroeconomic literature, such as procyclical policy, original sin, and debt intolerance, have common origins in weak democratic institutions. We also find evidence that democratic institutions both strongly influence monetary policy and have a strong, independent positive effect on stability after controlling for various policy variables.
Economic stabilization --- Democracy --- Self-government --- Political science --- Equality --- Representative government and representation --- Republics --- Economic aspects --- Econometrics --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Policy Objectives --- Policy Designs and Consistency --- Policy Coordination --- Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy --- Stabilization --- Treasury Policy --- Aggregate Factor Income Distribution --- Estimation --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Income inequality --- Estimation techniques --- Multiple currency practices --- Exchange rates --- National accounts --- Econometric analysis --- Prices --- Income distribution --- Econometric models --- Argentina
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