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Book
Early Warning Systems : A Survey and a Regime-Switching Approach
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ISBN: 1462367216 1452728097 128108932X 9786613774682 1451892632 Year: 2003 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

Previous early-warning systems (EWSs) for currency crises have relied on models that require a priori dating of crises. This paper proposes an alternative EWS, based on a Markov-switching model, which identifies and characterizes crisis periods endogenously; this also allows the model to utilize information contained in exchange rate dynamics. The model is estimated using data for the period 1972-99 for the Asian crisis countries, taking a country-by-country approach. The model outperforms standard EWSs, both in signaling crises and reducing false alarms. Two lessons emerge. First, accounting for the dynamics of exchange rates is important. Second, different indicators matter for different countries, suggesting that the assumption of parameter constancy underlying panel estimates of EWSs may contribute to poor performance.


Book
Central Bank Foreign Exchange Market Intervention and Option Contract Specification : The Case of Colombia
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ISBN: 1462335772 1452727015 1282013858 9786613796004 1451900902 Year: 2003 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper aims to identify appropriate option contract specifications for effective central bank exchange market intervention. Option contract specifications determine the impact of options on the underlying asset or currency, and hence their actual effect on asset price or currency volatility and are therefore key to determining the effectiveness of option-based intervention. The paper reviews the experience of the systematic option-based foreign exchange market intervention of the Central Bank of Colombia and finds that its contract has only been moderately successful at abating exchange rate volatility, which is attributed here to sub-optimal contract specifications.


Book
Anticipating Credit Events Using Credit Default Swaps, with An Application to Sovereign Debt Crises
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ISBN: 1462325718 1452783535 1281155756 1451898576 9786613777119 Year: 2003 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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In reduced-form pricing models, it is usual to assume a fixed recovery rate to obtain the probability of default from credit default swap prices. An alternative credit risk measure is proposed here: the maximum recovery rate compatible with observed prices. The analysis of the recent debt crisis in Argentina using this methodology shows that the correlation between the maximum recovery rate and implied default probabilities turns negative in advance of the credit event realization. This empirical finding suggests that the maximum recovery rate can be used for constructing early warning indicators of financial distress.


Book
Prudential Issues in Less Diversified Economies
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ISBN: 1462322603 1452791546 1282049801 9786613798107 1451905440 Year: 2003 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper examines the prudential issues associated with credit concentration in less diversified economies (LDEs), which are identified as countries where one or two sectors represent a large share of exports. In preparing this analysis, the characteristics of their financial and banking systems and their interactions with the real sector are studied. The paper also examines the limitations on portfolio diversification confronting banks in these countries, both from the viewpoint of the real sector and of the financial system. The paper finds that banks in LDEs, particularly in low-income countries, appear to face higher risk than their peers in more diversified economies and makes suggestions for policy options and regulatory practices which could be encouraged in such systems.


Book
Managing Risks in Financial Market Development : The Role of Sequencing.
Authors: ---
ISBN: 1462364047 1452783527 128210683X 1451899378 9786613800183 Year: 2003 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper proposes an integrated and risk-based approach to the sequencing and coordination of reforms to develop domestic financial markets. The paper argues that there is a hierarchy of financial markets that reflects the complexity of risks in each market and the interlinkages among markets. On the basis of this hierarchy, a sequencing of market development and risk-mitigation measures is proposed to minimize both macroeconomic and financial risks. Capital account opening can complement (but not substitute for) domestic institutional and market reforms to support the growth of local financial markets. The paper also argues that domestic institutional investors are critical to market development and risk mitigation.


Book
IMF Research Bulletin, June 2003.
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ISBN: 1462334083 1452760438 1283537354 145197437X 9786613849809 Year: 2003 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

The IMF Research Bulletin, a quarterly publication, selectively summarizes research and analytical work done by various departments at the IMF, and also provides a listing of research documents and other research-related activities, including conferences and seminars. The Bulletin is intended to serve as a summary guide to research done at the IMF on various topics, and to provide a better perspective on the analytical underpinnings of the IMF’s operational work.


Book
Fiscal Vulnerability and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies
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ISBN: 1462367348 1452766134 Year: 2003 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Fiscal problems have long been considered a central feature of financial--that is, currency, debt, and banking--crises. This paper addresses four questions: What are the fiscal causes of crises? Which fiscal vulnerability indicators help to predict crises? Can fiscal variables explain the severity of crises? And what are the fiscal consequences of crises? Its findings are based on statistical analysis of a large data set of fiscal variables for 29 emerging market economies over 1970-2000 and detailed case studies of 11 emerging market crises during the 1990s that focus on structural and institutional dimensions of fiscal vulnerability.


Book
Corporate Balance Sheet Restructuring and Investment in the Euro Area
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ISBN: 1462393306 1452736103 1282110063 1451899459 9786613802958 Year: 2003 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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The recent boom-bust cycle in the euro area's equity valuations has left nonfinancial corporations saddled with a legacy of high debt or leverage. Models of corporate investment behavior based on imperfect capital markets predict that highly leveraged balance sheets can act as a brake on investment spending. The paper's empirical analysis suggests that leverage effects on corporate investment can be substantial and persistent, particularly if leverage exceeds threshold values.


Book
Anticipating Arrears to the IMF Early Warning Systems
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ISBN: 1462321836 1452764425 1281604496 9786613785183 1451891512 Year: 2003 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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This paper attempts to predict the incidence of arrears to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) by modifying and applying two of the major early warning systems for currency crises: the "signals" approach proposed by Kaminsky, Lizondo, and Reinhart (1997) and the probit-based alternative developed by Berg and Pattillo (1998). The results, based on both in-sample and out-of-sample tests, appear encouraging. While the unique nature of IMF arrears poses some challenges, the models could be useful tools for identifying countries at high risk of incurring arrears to the IMF.


Book
Financial Development in the CIS-7 Countries : Bridging the Great Divide
Authors: --- ---
ISBN: 1462391036 145274095X 1282634658 9786613822833 1451919158 Year: 2003 Publisher: Washington, D.C. : International Monetary Fund,

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Abstract

This paper documents the great divide in the level of financial development between the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) 7 countries and the more advanced economies in transition, in particular those of Central and Eastern Europe and Baltic states. It discusses the roots of financial underdevelopment in the CIS-7 countries by examining the differentials in interest rate spreads between the CIS-7 countries and the transition economies that have achieved faster financial development. The roots of the divide are traced to weaknesses in the institutional infrastructure for financial intermediation, which lead to a combination of low depositor trust in the banking system and high credit risk. High credit risk stems mainly from the poor creditor-rights protection and weak auditing and accounting standards. Financial sector reform strategies that fail to give priority to the resolution of weaknesses in the basic financial infrastructure are unlikely to be successful in letting the CIS-7 countries bridge the great divide.

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