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A problem associated with inflation differentials in monetary unions is that the “crowding-in” effect of lower real interest rates associated with high inflation will initially outweigh the loss of competitiveness (crowding out). The crowding-in effect may produce volatility in house prices, especially if tax regimes favour the occurrence of bubbles. This paper shows that this is the case notably in the smaller countries of the euro area, and this could explain the persistence of inflation differentials in the area to some extent ...

Economics --- Euro Area

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Although there is no single yardstick to gauge the degree of integration, there is ample evidence that financial markets in the euro area have some way to go before national demarcation lines will effectively disappear and financial market integration is satisfactory. While there has been a push towards integration from the centre, global developments, such as advances in information technology, falling communication costs and standardisation of products, have been the main drivers, while national policies often acted as an impediment. The integration of financial markets finally became a policy priority with the adoption of the FSAP as part of the Cardiff process launched in 1998. For the European Union to have a fully satisfactory regulatory framework for financial markets in place in 2005, further efforts are needed. This paper takes stock of current developments and proposes a set of further suggestions for policy action ...

Economics --- Euro Area

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An early criticism of the Stability and Growth Pact has pointed to its asymmetric nature and the weak mechanisms to prevent politically-motivated fiscal policies: its constraints would bite in downswings but not in upswings, especially if in the latter the electoral cycle increases the temptation to run expansionary policies. We find that the experience of the initial years of EMU lends support to this criticism. Overall, unlike the experience in the run-up to EMU, fiscal policies had an expansionary bias, and a “genuine” discretionary boost took place in correspondence to political elections. Both sign and composition of such discretionary changes are in line with the predictions of the recent literature on electoral budget cycles. Closer fiscal surveillance may help detect early such behaviour, but it is unlikely to curb the incentives to run politically-motivated fiscal policies when elections approach ...

Economics --- Euro Area

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Although there is no single yardstick to gauge the degree of integration, there is ample evidence that financial markets in the euro area have some way to go before national demarcation lines will effectively disappear and financial market integration is satisfactory. While there has been a push towards integration from the centre, global developments, such as advances in information technology, falling communication costs and standardisation of products, have been the main drivers, while national policies often acted as an impediment. The integration of financial markets finally became a policy priority with the adoption of the FSAP as part of the Cardiff process launched in 1998. For the European Union to have a fully satisfactory regulatory framework for financial markets in place in 2005, further efforts are needed. This paper takes stock of current developments and proposes a set of further suggestions for policy action ...

Economics --- Euro Area

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Monetary policy --- Euro --- Money --- Monetary unions