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Growth and inflation in Turkey have been volatile over the last two decades. It would, therefore, be useful to identify indicators that anticipate economic conditions and inflation. This paper investigates the predictive performance of economic indicators for inflation and real output growth in Turkey. We find that (i) the forecasting ability of individual indicators is unstable; but that (ii) a suitable combination of these unstable forecasts yields a forecast that reliably outperforms that generated by an autoregressive model. We then propose a two-stage combination forecast obtained by taking the median of the top five performing individual forecasts. This two-stage forecast reliably improves on autoregressive benchmarks and outperforms the combination forecast based on all the individual forecasts.

Inflation --- Macroeconomics --- Forecasting --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Central Banks and Their Policies --- Economic Growth of Open Economies --- Economywide Country Studies: Europe --- Forecasting and Other Model Applications --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Economic Forecasting --- Economic growth --- Consumer price indexes --- Asset prices --- Economic forecasting --- Cyclical indicators --- Prices --- Price indexes --- Business cycles --- Turkey

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This paper reviews the "Austrian" theory of the business cycle first proposed by Friedrich Hayek in the 1920s. His theory claimed that credit creation by monetary authorities would push investment beyond society's long-term willingness to save, creating a mismatch between supply and demand that would inevitably cause recession. The theory argued, moreover, that expansionary policies in recession could generally only postpone the necessary structural adjustment, making the subsequent correction more severe. Modern followers of this theory see Austrian features in a number of recent business cycles, including Japan in the 1980s and 1990s, and the more recent U.S. slowdown.

Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Current Heterodox Approaches: Austrian --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Labor Economics: General --- Monetary Policy --- Economic growth --- Monetary economics --- Labour --- income economics --- Business cycles --- Consumption --- Labor --- Monetary expansion --- Credit --- Economics --- Labor economics --- Monetary policy --- United States

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We use the regime-switching econometric models in Hamilton (1989) and Filardo (1994) to study business cycles in Mexico. In particular, we characterize the ups and downs of economic activity in Mexico. As a proxy for economic activity, we use the Mexican quarterly industrial production index from the second quarter of 1972 to the third quarter of 1999. We allow the transition probabilities driving changes in economic activity to be a function of fiscal, financial, and external sector indicators. Our results show that recessions in Mexico are deeper and shorter than expansions.

Banks and Banking --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: General --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Economic growth --- Finance --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Business cycles --- Real interest rates --- Real exchange rates --- Cyclical indicators --- Industrial production --- Financial services --- Production --- Interest rates --- Industries --- Mexico

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The term structure of domestic investment grade bond spreads - or corporate spread curve - contains useful information to predict future changes in industrial production, beyond the information already contained in interest rates, commercial paper-treasury bill spreads, and lagged values of industrial production. In fact, the corporate spread curve can explain the cumulative growth rate of industrial production over 3- to 48-month horizons, and the marginal growth rate over 6- to 18-month horizons. Unlike other financial variables, the corporate spread curve has been a stable predictor of real activity for the last fifteen years.

Banks and Banking --- Investments: General --- Investments: Bonds --- Industries: General --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy --- Macroeconomics: Production --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Finance --- Investment & securities --- Industrial production --- Yield curve --- Securities --- Corporate bonds --- Bonds --- Production --- Financial services --- Financial institutions --- Industries --- Interest rates --- Financial instruments --- United States

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Macroeconomics --- International finance --- 330.31 --- AA / International- internationaal --- 331.01 --- Business cycles --- 330.05 --- 338.542 --- Economische kringloop. Quesnay kringloopprocessen. Business cycles --- Evolutie van de economische cycli. --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Cycles --- Financial crises --- 330.31 Economische kringloop. Quesnay kringloopprocessen. Business cycles --- Business cycles. --- Evolutie van de economische cycli