Abstract | Keywords | Export | Availability | Bookmark

Choose an application

• Reference Manager
• EndNote
• RefWorks (Direct export to RefWorks)

Year-ahead forecasts of tax revenues incorporated into IMF programs for low-income countries, from 1993 to 1999, are compared with the corresponding outturns. The accuracy of these forecasts was low, with a mean absolute percentage error of 16 percent. Forecasts of tax revenues as a percentage of GDP were biased upwards, but there was no significant bias in forecasts of nominal tax revenues. Upward bias in the tax revenue forecasts was associated with subsequent interruptions to the program, and the length of time between the commencement of the program and the beginning of the year for which the forecast was made.

Budgeting --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- Taxation --- Taxation and Subsidies: Other --- Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue: General --- National Budget --- Budget Systems --- Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications --- Public finance & taxation --- Budgeting & financial management --- Economic Forecasting --- Revenue forecasting --- Revenue administration --- Budget planning and preparation --- Debt bias --- GDP forecasting --- Tax policy --- Public financial management (PFM) --- National accounts --- Tax administration and procedure --- Revenue --- Budget --- National income --- United States --- Gdp forecasting