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Business cycles --- -Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Cycles --- Financial crises --- Mathematical models --- Theses --- Mathematical models. --- -Mathematical models

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This paper presents a "bridge model" for short-run (one or two quarters ahead) forecasting of Italian GDP, relying on industrial production and survey indicators as key variables that can help in providing a real-time first GDP estimate. For a one- to two-year horizon, it formulates and estimates a Bayesian VAR (BVAR) model of the Italian economy. Both the "bridge" and the BVAR model can be of great help in supplementing traditional judgmental or structural econometric forecasts. Given their simplicity and their good forecasting power, the framework may be usefully extended to other variables as well as to other countries.

Econometrics --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: General --- Bayesian Analysis: General --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- State Space Models --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications --- Economic growth --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Economic Forecasting --- Cyclical indicators --- Industrial production --- Vector autoregression --- GDP forecasting --- Production index --- Production --- Econometric analysis --- National accounts --- Business cycles --- Industries --- National income --- Economic theory --- United States

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The quantum phenomena of tunneling and interference show up not only in the microscopic world of atoms and molecules, but also in cold materials of the real world, such as metals and semiconductors. Though not fully macroscopic, such mesoscopic systems contain a huge number of particles, and the holistic nature of quantum mechanics becomes evident already in simple electronic measurements. The measured quantity fluctuates as a function of applied fields in an unpredictable, yet reproducible way. Despite this fingerprint character of fluctuations, their statistical properties are univer

Fluctuations (Physics) --- Quantum theory. --- Mesoscopic phenomena (Physics) --- Phenomena, Mesoscopic (Physics) --- Physics --- Quantum dynamics --- Quantum mechanics --- Quantum physics --- Mechanics --- Thermodynamics --- Variations (Physics) --- Stochastic processes

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Using the longest dataset publicly available (The Economist's index of industrial commodity prices), we analyze the behavior of real commodity prices over the period 1862-99, and have two main findings. First, while there has been a downward trend in real commodity prices of 1.3 percent per year over the last 140 years, little support is found for a break in the long-run trend decline in commodity prices. Second, there is evidence of a ratcheting up in the variability of price movements. The amplitude of price movements increased in the early 1900s, while the frequency of large price movements increased after the collapse of the Bretton Woods regime of fixed exchange rates in the early 1970s. While there is a downward trend in real commodity prices, this is of little practical policy relevance as it is small and completely dominated by the variability of prices.

Investments: Commodities --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis --- Prices --- Commodity Markets --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Investment & securities --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Commodity prices --- Commodity price fluctuations --- Commodity price indexes --- Commodities --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Price indexes --- Commercial products --- United States

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This 2001 book looks at numerous financial crises, beginning with Mexico in 1994-1995, the Asian crisis of 1997-1998, and the crises in Russia, Brazil, and other Latin American countries in 1998-1999. Such contemporary crises illustrate the risks of financial volatility and macroeconomic instability during the process of economic growth and development. They also raise issues regarding the management of risks associated with liberalization and global integration, particularly in financial markets. Concerns about the implications of international capital flows for developing countries have grown with the sharply increased volume of these flows since the late 1980s. The essays in this volume provide analysis and evidence on the determinants of currency and banking crises in emerging markets, the specific roles of capital flows and the financial sector, and the appropriateness of various policy responses.

Business cycles --- Financial crises --- Business, Economy and Management --- Economics --- Economic cycles --- Economic fluctuations --- Cycles --- Crashes, Financial --- Crises, Financial --- Financial crashes --- Financial panics --- Panics (Finance) --- Stock exchange crashes --- Stock market panics --- Crises