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“Program numbers” from a sample of IMF-supported programs are studied as if they were forecasts, through statistical analyses of the relationship between projections and outcomes for growth, inflation, and three balance of payments concepts. Statistical bias is found only for projections of inflation and official reserves. Statistical efficiency can be rejected for all variables except growth, suggesting that some program projections were less accurate than they might have been. Nevertheless, most projections are found to have some predictive value. Since several findings are shown to be sample-dependent, the full-sample results should be interpreted cautiously.

Exports and Imports --- Inflation --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Price Level --- Deflation --- International economics --- Macroeconomics --- Capital account --- Current account balance --- Current account --- Capital account balance --- Prices --- Balance of payments --- Korea, Republic of

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This paper uses an intertemporal model of the current account and macroeconomic indicators to examine the size and sustainability of Nigerian current account deficits over the 1960-97 period. The results indicate that the Nigerian economy appeared to satisfy its intertemporal budget constraint during this period. However there were years marked by excessive current account deficits. The results also support the view that current account deficits accompanied by macroeconomic instability and structural weaknesses can degenerate in to an external crisis.

Exports and Imports --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- International economics --- Current account --- Current account deficits --- Current account balance --- External debt --- Current account surpluses --- Balance of payments --- Debts, External --- Nigeria

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An increasing number of tropical timber producing nations have enacted bans on export of logs. Proponents argue that a log export ban is a second-best policy tool for addressing environmental externalities; it also creates more jobs and improves scale efficiencies domestically. Theoretical arguments suggest that log export bans are largely incapable of achieving their objectives. However, little quantitative evidence exists. The authors maintain that eliminating log export bans in Costa Rica could generate economic gains as high as $14 million annually in addition to the environmental benefits.

Exports and Imports --- Taxation --- Agribusiness --- Environmental Economics --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Trade and Environment --- Renewable Resources and Conservation: Forestry --- Agricultural Markets and Marketing --- Cooperatives --- Environmental Economics: General --- Trade: General --- Agriculture, agribusiness & food production industries --- International economics --- Environmental economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Agroindustries --- Environment --- Trade barriers --- Exports --- Tariffs --- Economic sectors --- International trade --- Taxes --- Agricultural industries --- Environmental sciences --- Commercial policy --- Tariff --- Costa Rica

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This paper analyzes the behavior of current account deficits in Africa and estimates whether the deficits are excessive with respect to fundamentals. The findings are the deficits are (i) not very persistent; (ii) positively linked with domestic growth; (iii) strongly linked with public (and private) savings, suggesting that fiscal consolidation in IMF-supported programs may be relatively effective; (iv) linked with aid flows, so as to close the external gap, and (v) linked with currency depreciation and the terms of trade. The deficit is "excessive," as it is almost 3 percent of the gross national disposable income above the equilibrium level.

Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- International Finance: General --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: General --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- International economics --- Current account deficits --- Current account --- Private savings --- Terms of trade --- Current account balance --- Balance of payments --- National accounts --- International trade --- Saving and investment --- Economic policy --- nternational cooperation --- Sierra Leone --- Nternational cooperation

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A comprehensive empirical investigation is carried out to ascertain the import-reducing effect of trade protection barriers. We first present a statistical summary of the status of global trade protection. Then, based on a monopolistic competition trade model and 1994 cross-country data on trade barriers, trade flows, and production, we estimate the import-reducing effect of trade barriers including both tariffs and non-tariff barriers (NTBs). We use the disaggregated cross-country, cross-industry data on manufactured goods and, unlike previous studies, our sample covers a broad range of countries-more than 70 in total-including countries from the most developed ones like those in the Group of Seven to the least developed one, Bangladesh. We specify an empirical model that captures the stylized facts well and helps generate sensible estimates. Our econometric framework is designed to control for the simultaneous determination of trade flows, trade barriers, and production. We find that both tariff and NTBs are quite significant in restricting imports.

Econometrics --- Exports and Imports --- Taxation --- Trade Policy --- International Trade Organizations --- Trade: General --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Estimation --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- Trade barriers --- Imports --- Tariffs --- Trade balance --- Estimation techniques --- International trade --- Taxes --- Econometric analysis --- Commercial policy --- Tariff --- Balance of trade --- Econometric models --- United States