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This paper reviews a number of different methods that can be used to estimate potential output and the output gap. Measures of potential output and the output gap are useful to help identify the scope for sustainable noninflationary growth and to allow an assessment of the stance of macroeconomic policies. The paper then compares results from some of these methods to the case of Sweden, showing the range of estimates.

Inflation --- Labor --- Production and Operations Management --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- State Space Models --- Macroeconomics: Production --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Macroeconomics --- Labour --- income economics --- Potential output --- Output gap --- Unemployment --- Unemployment rate --- Production --- Prices --- Economic theory --- Sweden --- Income economics

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This paper provides a quantitative exploration of international spillovers of macroeconomic shocks among the major industrial economies. The particular topical example analyzed here concerns the possible effects on the industrial economies of adverse shocks to the current U.S. economic expansion. The potential spillover effects of U.S. shocks to other industrial economies are found to be quite large. Extant economic conditions, particularly the low levels of nominal interest rates and the consequent possibility of liquidity traps in countries such as Japan, could significantly magnify these spillover effects.

Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Labor --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Business Fluctuations --- Cycles --- Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles: Forecasting and Simulation --- International Policy Coordination and Transmission --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Macroeconomics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Monetary economics --- International economics --- Labour --- income economics --- Nominal effective exchange rate --- Interest rate floor --- Current account balance --- Unemployment rate --- Prices --- Monetary policy --- Balance of payments --- Interest rates --- Unemployment --- United States --- Income economics

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The World Economic Outlook, published twice a year in English, French, Spanish, and Arabic, presents IMF staff economists analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium term. Chapters give an overview of the world economy; consider issues affecting industrial countries, and economics in transition to market; and address topics of pressing current interest. Annexes, boxes, charts, and an extensive statistical appendix augment the text.

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