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China --- demography --- statistics --- the People's Republic of China
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Currency boards operate differently from standard pegs. The former exhibit greater currency stability and lower transaction costs, inflation, and nominal interest rates, but are limited in their use of devaluation. We extend Drazen and Masson’s (1994) signaling model to consider the choice between currency board arrangements and standard pegs. The model shows that currency boards’ effectiveness hinges on their credibility properties and that they can improve welfare even with high unemployment persistence. By reducing expected inflation and the negative employment effect arising from expected but unrealized inflation, currency boards can produce less unemployment than peg regimes that abstain from devaluation.
Foreign Exchange --- Inflation --- Labor --- Money and Monetary Policy --- International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Monetary Systems --- Standards --- Regimes --- Government and the Monetary System --- Payment Systems --- Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Monetary economics --- Labour --- income economics --- Currency boards --- Exchange rate arrangements --- Currencies --- Unemployment --- Prices --- Money --- Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China --- Income economics
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Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR) underwent a painful period of recession and adjustment during the Asian crisis. The adjustment in prices under the linked exchange rate system is well under way. Fiscal policy should continue to provide support for the recovery. Unemployment has stabilized but remains high. The banking system is resilient to external shocks. Technological changes in key service industries and the evolving relationship with the Mainland will lead to major structural changes in the Hong Kong SAR economy.
Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Labor Economics: General --- Finance --- Banking --- Labour --- income economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Commercial banks --- Competition --- Stock markets --- Labor --- Banks and banking --- Stock exchanges --- Labor economics --- Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China
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In this study, quantitative, industry-level measures of the intensity of competition are measured. Various methodologies and data used for measuring competition are also discussed. The level of intensity is also compared. The following statistical data are also presented in detail: gross fixed capital formation, selected price indicators, labor force, employment and unemployment, wages, labor productivity, and unit labor costs, property market developments, monetary indicators, equity price developments, revenue, exchange fund balance sheet, loans and advances by type, GDP by sector at current prices, and so on.
Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: Manufacturing --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Trade: General --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Labor Economics: General --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Labour --- income economics --- International economics --- Finance --- Manufacturing industries --- Labor markets --- Exports --- International trade --- Labor market --- Economic theory --- Labor economics --- Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China --- Income economics
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This paper calculates the levels of optimal national saving, investment, and the current account balance for five Asian economies—Hong Kong SAR, Japan, Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines—for the period 1997–2050 using a simulation approach. These calculations show the sensitivity of results to changing demographic structures on employment participation, labor productivity; and consumption demands. In particular, the simulations reveal that variations in prospective demographic change across economies cause considerable variations in the patterns of optimal national saving rates.
Macroeconomics --- Production and Operations Management --- Demography --- General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation --- Macroeconomics: Consumption --- Saving --- Wealth --- Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts --- Planning Models --- Planning Policy --- Economics of the Elderly --- Economics of the Handicapped --- Non-labor Market Discrimination --- Human Capital --- Skills --- Occupational Choice --- Labor Productivity --- Demographic Economics: General --- Population & demography --- Consumption --- Aging --- Labor productivity --- Demographic change --- Population and demographics --- National accounts --- Production --- Economics --- Population aging --- Demographic transition --- Population --- Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China
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This paper examines the determinants of residential property prices in Hong Kong SAR during 1980–98. It uses time-series analysis techniques to characterize price developments, establish empirical regularities, and provide measures of the deviations of actual price changes from “trend.” The analysis suggests that at the peak of the boom, in mid-1997, the level of property prices may have been 40–45 percent above levels suggested by developments in “fundamentals.” The analysis highlights the role of demand-side factors, and the data are not inconsistent with the notion that the property market may be subject to speculative bubbles.
Financial Risk Management --- Infrastructure --- Macroeconomics --- Real Estate --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- State Space Models --- Nonagricultural and Nonresidential Real Estate Markets --- Financial Crises --- Economic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis --- Housing --- Housing Supply and Markets --- Property & real estate --- Economic & financial crises & disasters --- Land prices --- Asset bubbles --- Housing prices --- Asset prices --- Prices --- Financial crises --- National accounts --- Saving and investment --- Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China
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After the large exchange rate depreciations following the 1997 East Asian crisis, export volumes from East Asian countries responded with a notable lag. Two main explanations for this lag have been proposed: that the policy of high interest rates limited access to domestic credit and hence limited the supply of exports; and that “competitive depreciation” neutralized the effects on demand for exports. This paper considers the plausibility of these two mechanisms using a new monthly database on exports of selected industries. We find evidence that “competitive depreciation” did play a fundamental role in the propagation of the East Asian crisis through the trade channel, even at a monthly frequency.
Exports and Imports --- Investments: General --- Macroeconomics --- Money and Monetary Policy --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Trade: General --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- Investment --- Capital --- Intangible Capital --- Capacity --- Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit: General --- International economics --- Monetary economics --- Exports --- Export prices --- Depreciation --- Domestic credit --- Export earnings --- International trade --- Prices --- National accounts --- Money --- Saving and investment --- Credit --- Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China
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This study estimates quantitative, industry-level measures of the intensity of competition and also discusses various methodologies and data used for measuring competition. The following data are also included in the study: gross fixed capital formation, selected price indicators, labor force, employment, and unemployment, property market development, public expenditure by function, monetary indicators, balance sheet of all authorized institutions, equity price developments, exchange fund balance sheet, wages, labor productivity, public expenditure by function, revenue, government expenditure under the general revenue account, and so on.
Exports and Imports --- Finance: General --- Labor --- Macroeconomics --- Industries: Manufacturing --- Demand and Supply of Labor: General --- Trade: General --- Employment --- Unemployment --- Wages --- Intergenerational Income Distribution --- Aggregate Human Capital --- Aggregate Labor Productivity --- Labor Economics: General --- Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs: General --- Labour --- income economics --- International economics --- Finance --- Manufacturing industries --- Labor markets --- Exports --- International trade --- Labor market --- Economic theory --- Labor economics --- Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China --- Income economics
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The Asian crisis hit the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR) economy hard in 1998, despite its generally strong fundamentals. In response to the crisis, the authorities eased fiscal policy—within the framework of a medium plan to restore budget balance, and significantly strengthened job creation and retraining efforts. Despite the inevitable pressures arising from declining output and the regional crisis, the financial position of the banking system remains generally strong. Executive Directors strongly supported the authorities' efforts to further strengthen employment and training programs.
Banks and Banking --- Finance: General --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- General Financial Markets: General (includes Measurement and Data) --- Banks --- Depository Institutions --- Micro Finance Institutions --- Mortgages --- Labor Economics: General --- Finance --- Banking --- Labour --- income economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Competition --- Stock markets --- Labor --- Securities markets --- Financial markets --- Commercial banks --- Financial institutions --- Banks and banking --- Stock exchanges --- Labor economics --- Capital market --- Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, People's Republic of China --- Income economics
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