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This paper reexamines the issue of the existence of threshold effects in the relationship between inflation and growth, using new econometric techniques that provide appropriate procedures for estimation and inference. The threshold level of inflation above which inflation significantly slows growth is estimated at 1–3 percent for industrial countries and 7–11 percent for developing countries. The negative and significant relationship between inflation and growth, for inflation rates above the threshold level, is quite robust with respect to the estimation method, perturbations in the location of the threshold level, the exclusion of high-inflation observations, data frequency, and alternative specifications.

Econometrics --- Exports and Imports --- Inflation --- Demography --- Price Level --- Deflation --- Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General --- Truncated and Censored Models --- Switching Regression Models --- Threshold Regression Models --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts --- Macroeconomics --- Econometrics & economic statistics --- International economics --- Population & migration geography --- Threshold analysis --- Terms of trade --- Hyperinflation --- Population growth --- Prices --- Economic policy --- nternational cooperation --- Population --- Nternational cooperation

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This paper provides an empirical investigation of the medium-term determinants of current accounts for a large sample of industrial and developing countries. The analysis is based on a structural approach that highlights the roles of the fundamental macroeconomic determinants of saving and investment. Cross-section and panel regression techniques are used to characterize the properties of current account variation across countries and over time. Current account balances are positively correlated with government budget balances and initial stocks of net foreign assets. Among developing countries, measures of financial deepening are positively correlated while indicators of openness to international trade are negatively correlated with current account balances.

Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Current Account Adjustment --- Short-term Capital Movements --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- International economics --- Current account --- Current account balance --- Current account deficits --- Personal income --- Terms of trade --- Balance of payments --- National accounts --- International trade --- Income --- Economic policy --- nternational cooperation --- United States --- Nternational cooperation

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This paper examines the persistence of shocks to the terms of trade, using annual data on 42 Sub-Saharan African countries between 1960-96. We find that the persistence of terms of trade shocks varies widely—for about half the countries such shocks are short-lived, while for one-third of the countries such shocks are long-lived. The countries experiencing long-lived terms of trade shocks are typically those that have large shares of petroleum imports in total imports, small shares of nonfuel commodity exports in total exports, and are highly concentrated in exportable commodities with long-lived price shocks.

Investments: Commodities --- Exports and Imports --- Macroeconomics --- Time-Series Models --- Dynamic Quantile Regressions --- Dynamic Treatment Effect Models --- Diffusion Processes --- Open Economy Macroeconomics --- Agriculture in International Trade --- Empirical Studies of Trade --- Commodity Markets --- Trade: General --- Price Level --- Inflation --- Deflation --- International economics --- Investment & securities --- Terms of trade --- Exports --- Commodities --- Commodity prices --- Import prices --- International trade --- Prices --- Imports --- Economic policy --- nternational cooperation --- Commercial products --- Congo, Democratic Republic of the --- Nternational cooperation

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